Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (San Diego Stays Hot on Road)

Reed Wallach | Aug 26, 2024

Aug 25, 2024; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres center fielder Jackson Merrill (3) celebrates on the field after hitting a walk-off home run against the New York Mets the at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports / Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Is there a hotter team in baseball than the San Diego Padres?

The Padres are 24-9 since the All-Star break, the best record in Major League Baseball, as the team continues to push for a postseason berth and another run at the National League Pennant.

On the heels of another clutch hit from Rookie of the Year favorite Jackson Merrill, the Padres look to keep humming against the Cardinals on the road.

Jackson Merrill has 6 game-tying or go-ahead home runs in the 8th inning or later this season.

No other player has more. 🤯 pic.twitter.com/wjloTvATgf

— MLB (@MLB) August 25, 2024

How should we bet Padres-Cardinals? What about the entire big league card? we got you covered below!

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Royals vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick

Pick: Guardians (+105)

While the Royals have the pitching edge on the mound with hard throwing Cole Ragans set to start, I’m going to side with the home underdog Guardians. 

Cleveland is a top 10 hitting team against left handed pitching, and the Royals haven’t been the same lineup on the road, just league average. 

Ragans may be vulnerable against Cleveland’s bats, and the Royals are just 31-30 away from Kauffman Stadium this season. Meanwhile, the Guardians are 40-21 at home. 

Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Prediction and Pick

Pick: Blue Jays (+135)

Rookie pitcher Yariel Rodriguez has been shaky in his rookie season, but I don’t believe the Red Sox should be this big of a chalk against Toronto, who has been playing better baseball down the stretch of the season. 

Paced by Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto is sixth in OPS since the All-Star break. While the Red Sox rank third in the same metric, this is a hefty price to lay with a shaky pitcher on the mound in Kutter Crawford, who has an ERA of 8.13 in seven starts since the All-Star break. 

Cubs vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick

Pick: Cubs (-110)

Neither team has been lighting the world on fire since the All-Star break, but I’ll side with the bats of the Cubs, who have been at league average in terms of OPS while the Pirates are 24th in the same metric. 

Chicago has the power to get to Mitch Keller and a shaky Pirates bullpen, while Jameson Taillon has been elite at finding his pinpoint control, posting a 92nd percentile walk rate and 70th percentile hard-hit percentage. 

Astros vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

Pick: Astros (+140)

With the return of Yordan Alvarez from a weekend neck injury, I’ll bite at Houston as a big underdog against Zack Wheeler. 

While Wheeler is trying to chase down Chris Sale in the Cy Young race, Houston’s lineup presents the ability to work counts and a potentially shortened start for Wheeler, who had his start pushed back a day. 

The Phillies are walking at a bottom three rate in the month of August, massive against Ronel Blanco, who has a walk percentage nearing double digits this season. If Blanco can locate and continue to generate soft contact, he can neutralize the potent Phillies offense and this game can quickly become a coin flip type matchup. 

Royals vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick

Pick: Guardians (+105)

In the second matchup of Monday’s double header, I’ll side with the slight underdog Guardians yet again. 

As noted above, this is a matchup between a Royals team that has struggled away from home while the Guardians have been amongst the most reliable home teams in baseball. 

Cleveland is 40-21 at home this season heading into Monday’s action. 

Yankees vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Nationals (+155)

The Yankees continue to generate offense against left handed pitching, 15th in OPS on the season against southpaws. 

The team will face a frisky Nationals offense that is hitting at a league average rate since the All-Star game and will be counting on Nestor Cortes to keep the opponent down. However, Cortes is in the 18th percentile in hard hit rate and 28th percentile in average exit velocity. 

The Nats are live on Monday. 

Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Prediction and Pick

Pick: Red Sox (-170)

While I faded the Red Sox in the first game of the double header, I’ll go back to the home favorite in the second matchup with Nick Pivetta set to pitch against Jose Berrios.

Pivetta has been far better than his ERA suggests, 4.70, posting a 3.94 xERA with an above average strikeout rate (29%) and low walk rate of just 6%. 

Meanwhile, Jose Berrios has been a prime regression candidate all season. The right hander has an ERA of 3.79, matched by an xERA of 4.97 with a below average strikeout rate. I’ll take the home team to rake against Berrios and for Pivetta to shut the opposition down. 

Braves vs. Twins Prediction and Pick

Pick: Twins (-120)

I can’t trust Max Fried in what should be a hitter’s environment in Minnesota on Monday night. 

With temperatures north of 90 degrees, the ball should be flying for a Twins lineup that can feast on Fried’s diminished strikeout pitch, down to a career low 22%. Minnesota is a top 10 hitting lineup against left handed pitchers, and with the ball in play constantly I’m going to bank on the home team to win in a near pick ‘em matchup. 

Padres vs. Cardinals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Padres (-110)

I will happily fade Kyle Gibson (4.22 ERA, 5.04 xERA) against a top five offense in Major League Baseball on Monday night. 

The Padres have been elite at the plate since the All-Star break, fifth in OPS and sixth in runs scored. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are 21st in OPS and 25th in runs scored in the same time frame. 

I’ll jump on San Diego at these odds. 

Tigers vs. White Sox Prediction and Pick

Pick: White Sox (+130)

It’s tough to project this matchup given that the Tigers are starting Ty Madden, the team’s No. 6 prospect, for the first time, but I’ll take a flier on the White Sox. 

Madden posted a 7.97 ERA in 18 AAA starts this season, opening the door for the lowly White Sox to nab a win. 

Marlins vs. Rockies Prediction and Pick

Pick: Marlins (-110)

This game features two poor opponents, but I’ll give the nod to Edward Cabrera, who has a nasty punch out pitch, 72nd percentile strikeout rate, and a Marlins team that has been better at the plate of late. 

The Marlins are 12th in OPS rate since the All-Star break while the Rockies are 22nd. 

Further, Cabrera has been pitching at his best, posting a 3.65 ERA in seven starts since the All-Star break. 

Rays vs. Mariners Prediction and Pick

Pick: Rays (+110)

I can’t trust the Mariners as a home favorite, 26th in OPS since the All-Star break. 

While the Rays aren’t much better, 25th in the same metric, I’ll side with the plus money price with Ryan Pepiot set to flash his potent fastball that is 91st percentile in run value, leading to  a 74th percentile strikeout rate. 

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