Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Seth Lugo's Cy Young Case Takes Center Stage)

MLB betting preview, predictions and best bets for the Tuesday, June 4 slate of games, featuring the Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians.

May 1, 2024; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Seth Lugo (67) throws a pitch against the Toronto Blue Jays during the first inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports / Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

All Major League Baseball teams are in action on Tuesday, making for a high volume day. 

The game that has my attention is the AL Central battle between the Royals and Guardians with Kansas City sending out potential American League Cy Young contender Seth Lugo in hopes of closing the gap in the division. 

Keep reading for more on that game as well as the 14 other games on the Major League Baseball slate! 

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Rays vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick

Pick: Marlins (+100)

Jesus Luzardo continues to thrive for the Marlins despite the team failing to compete this season. He draws a favorable matchup against the Rays, who are bottom 10 in the big leagues in terms of OPS against lefty pitchers. 

With a low total of 7.5, I’m inclined to take the home underdog. 

Dodgers vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick

Pick: Dodgers (-185)

Pirates rookie starter Jared Jones is trending in the wrong way, seeing his velocity and strikeout numbers dwindle as the season goes on. After posting an ERA of 2.86 in April, that number jumped to 3.99 in May. 

He now faces a Dodgers team that is second i OPS on the year and is tied for fifth in runs scored. The team simply has a ceiling that the Pirates lack, and the Dodgers will have its best pitcher in Tyler Glasnow (3.04 ERA) on the mound. 

I’ll grab Los Angeles at a reasonable price.

Royals vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick

Pick: Royals (+105)

Two of the most impressive teams in the big leagues this season meet in Cleveland, and I’m going to take the underdog Royals, who have one of the best pitchers in the sport on the mound. 

Seth Lugo has thrived in Kansas City this season, posting a 1.72 ERA with excellent command (sub-six percent) and allowing a ton of soft contact (38%). The Guardians are an elite hitting team, but the Royals out-pace the AL Central leaders, ranking eighth in OPS against while Cleveland is 11th. 

There’s not much separation between the two teams so I’ll take the underdogs. 

Brewers vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

Pick: Phillies (-170)

I don’t trust Brewers starter Colin Rea, who has some ghastly underlying metrics, including an xERA that is a 5.48, far higher than his actual ERA of 3.77. 

A lot of his looming regression is due to the fact that Rea has a strikeout rate of just 16% this season, so balls are being put in play, making it more likely that a hit is generated. 

Against a Phillies team that is top five in OPS, I’ll trust the team to generate enough contact to plate enough runs and win at home. 

Mets vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Mets (-115)

David Peterson made his first start of the season last week against the Dodgers, so there’s not much of a sample size to go off of, but I like him in this matchup for him against the Nationals, who are 27th in OPS against left handed pitching. 

I’ll buy low on Peterson with a limited sample and for him to win in a coin flip matchup against the Nats. 

Twins vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick

Pick: Yankees (-185)

Luis Gil is the AL Rookie of the Year favorite, and pitching like a Cy Young for that matter. 

Gil is striking out 31% of batters, in the 92nd percentile per MLBStatcast, and has a 1.99 ERA. Batters haven’t been able to catch up to the rookie just yet, and he is backed by arguably the best lineup in baseball with the scorching Aaron Judge in the middle of the lineup. 

The former AL MVP is hitting .391 with 14 home runs and 27 RBI’s in the last 25 games for the Bronx Bombers. 

Orioles vs. Jays Prediction and Pick

Pick: Orioles (-170)

Baltimore is a worthwhile bet as road favorites with AL Cy Young favorite Corbin Burnes toeing the rubber. 

The former Brewers ace is on a roll in his first season with the Orioles, pitching to a 2.35 ERA through 12 starts in which the O’s are 8-4 in those starts. 

Toronto is simply ill equipped to keep up with innings eater Bowden Francis on the mound and an offense that is 25th in OPS over the last week. 

Braves vs. Red Sox Prediction and Pick

Pick: Braves (-170)

Max Fried has found his form, fresh off a May in which he had a 2.04 ERA across 35.1 innings pitched, tossing seven or more innings in four of five starts. 

He draws a limited Red Sox lineup that will be at a disadvantage on the mound as well. While Kutter Crawford has been solid this season, he is due for a drop-off as he has an ERA of 3.29 and an xERA of 3.71. 

I’ll trust the more reliable product to get it done in Fried and the Braves. 

Tigers vs. Rangers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Rangers (+100) 

Dane Dunning has some whacky numbers, including a career worst walk rate of 11% due to his increased focus on striking batters out (career high 27%), but the TIgers won’t challenge him with the team’s lack of discipline at the dish. 

Detroit is bottom 10 in walks drawn this season and 23rd in on-base percentage, so I believe Dunning’s ability to generate swings and misses, he is in the 88th percentile in whiff percentage, will be able to be the difference in this one. 

White Sox vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick

Pick: White Sox (+240)

The White Sox can’t hit lefties well at all, this is the worst hitting team in the big leagues against southpaws, but I can’t back the Cubs at this big of a number, even with NL Rookie of the Year favorite Shota Imanaga on the mound. 

I can’t trust Chicago with the team hitting this poor of late. Over the last 15 days, the Cubs are hitting only .217 as a unit and have dropped nine of 12 games in that stretch. 

The Cubs lineup doesn’t justify this price tag. 

Cardinals vs. Astros Prediction and Pick

Pick: Astros (-150)

Can Houston turn a corner? The team is still seven games under .500, but is hoping it can find its form in June, and the same can be said for its rookie right hander Spencer Arrighetti, who has a 5.98 ERA through nine starts. 

However, the rookie has an xERA of 4.29, indicating that some better results should be coming for him. Further, the Cardinals walk at about a league average rate, which can be impactful for Arrighetti, who has an 11% walk rate. 

Reds vs. Rockies Prediction and Pick

Pick: Rockies (+115)

The Reds can’t hit lefty pitching, full stop. The team is 23rd in batting average against southpaws, which negates some of its edge in a hitter friendly Coors Field against the Rockies. 

Padres vs. Angels Prediction and Pick

Pick: Padres (-115)

I’ll bet on Adam Mazur of the Padres in his big league debut on Tuesday against the sliding Angels, who have dropped four straight. 

While San Diego struggles to hit lefty pitching, 25th in OPS, that is priced in and I’ll play on the upside of Mazur, who has limited his walks to about 4% in Triple-A this season. 

Giants vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick

Pick: Diamondbacks (-120)

In a battle of left handed pitchers, I’ll side with the Diamondbacks at home, who are far better at the plate against southpaws. 

Arizona is the fourth best hitting team against lefties while the Giants check in 11th. 

Both teams are bottom five in bullpen ERA so this game can be full of twists and turns, but I’ll trust Arizona at home at a small price. 

Mariners vs. Athletics Prediction and Pick

Pick: Athletics (+135)

Rookie Mitch Spence has done a little bit of everything for the A’s pitching staff this season, starting in three of 14 appearances on the year, but he has been promising nonetheless. 

Spence has posted a 3.52 ERA and should have even better results in the future with a 3.17 xERA with a great ability to limit hard contact, ranking in the 64th percentile in hard-hit percentage, per MLBStatcast. 

I’ll take a flier on the Athletics to knock off the Mariners. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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