Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Trust Chris Sale to Get Braves Back in Win Column)

Reed Wallach | Aug 12, 2024

Aug 7, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Chris Sale (51) throws against the Milwaukee Brewers in the first inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports / Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

The calendar flips to a new week on the baseball diamond and wild card races are heating up, namely in the National League. 

The Atlanta Braves, who have been a postseason fixture over the past several years, have struggled to stay healthy and maintain pace in this season’s race for October. Can the team snap a cold skid that has featured seven losses in the last eight games against the San Francisco Giants on Monday with Cy Young favorite Chris Sale on the mound? 

The Braves vs. Giants game will be the marquee matchup with Sale facing off against the red-hot Blake Snell, but this article is going to cover the entire Monday night slate. 

Here’s how we are betting each game. 

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Cubs vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick

Pick: Cubs (-125)

The Guardians' August slide has continued as the team finds itself in a neck-and-neck race for the AL Central now. 

It won’t get any easier as the team’s average bats against lefty pitching takes on Shota Imanaga, who has maintained above average metrics since the All-Star break, posting a 3.42 ERA with elite command on his off-speed pitches. 

Cardinals vs. Reds Prediction and Pick

Pick: Reds (+110)

The Cardinals remain untrustworthy with a left handed pitcher starting for the opposition, even if the team has stud right hander Sonny Gray backing the lineup. 

St. Louis is 28th in OPS against southpaws this season, a concerning trend heading into Monday’s meeting against Andrew Abbott, who has been able to limit hard contact all season, posting an 84th percentile hard-hit percentage. 

Astros vs. Rays Prediction and Pick

Pick: Rays (+110)

The Rays are a top 10 hitting unit against left handed pitching, which sets up nicely against the middling Framber Valdez this season, but the reason to back Tampa Bay is due to its own pitching. 

Tampa Bay’s starter Taj Bradley has begun to realize his upside, posting a 2.52 ERA since July 1 with more than five strikeouts per start. Against an Astros team that is disciplined, Bradley’s ability to limit hard contact is notable and makes me confident the home underdogs can cash on Monday. 

Rangers vs. Red Sox Prediction and Pick

Pick: Red Sox (-135)

The Red Sox are the third best offense in baseball since the All-Star break, per OPS standards. The team should be able to put pressure on the recently activated Tyler Mahle as well as a suspect Rangers bullpen that is bottom five in ERA this season. 

Royals vs. Twins Prediction and Pick

Pick: Twins (-160)

Pablo Lopez has been a prime regression candidate all season, his 4.74 ERA has been far worse than his 3.50 xERA matched with his 79th percentile strikeout rate. 

He should be in a good spot on Monday night against the Royals, who are a far different team on the road, 23rd in OPS away from Kauffman stadium. 

Yankees vs. White Sox Prediction and Pick

Pick: White Sox (+260)

This may seem like a reach, but the Yankees can’t justify this price tag on the road against a left handed pitcher. The team is below average in terms of OPS against southpaws, so I believe that Chicago can drag this game out and potentially pull a massive upset on Monday with prospect Ky Bush on the mound set to make his second start. 

Dodgers vs. Brewers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Dodgers (-115)

Clayton Kershaw is beginning to work himself back into shape after missing most of the season. While his ERA is 4.38, his underlying metrics are strong, posting a 3.90 xERA and a career average walk rate to combat his diminished strikeout ability. 

I’ll back Los Angeles on Monday in a coin flip matchup as Milwaukee has been right at big league average against lefty pitchers this season, 14th in terms of OPS. 

Blue Jays vs. Angels Prediction and Pick

Pick: Blue Jays (-105)

Both offenses are underwhelming, each below the big league average since the All-Star break, but I can’t trust the Angels as home favorites. The Halos are 7-14 as favorites in 2024. 

Pirates vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

Pick: Padres (-165)

The Pirates are quickly falling out of the Wild Card race, losers of seven straight, and I don’t expect it to get easier against the Padres, who have surged to the top of the same Wild Card standings with a recent seven game winning streak. 

San Diego is hitting like a top five team since the All-Star break, and should face little issues against Marco Gonzales and a middling Pirates bullpen. 

Rockies vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick

Pick: Diamondbacks (-240)

Arizona has been the best offense in Major League baseball since the All-Star break, hitting .293 as a team with an OPS of .902. 

The team should put far too much pressure on the Rockies pitching staff and get a routine victory in the midst of its postseason push. 

Braves vs. Giants Prediction and Pick

Pick: Braves (-115)

The Braves can’t seem to stop the bleeding, allowing seven runs in the eighth inning to lose to the lowly Rockies on Sunday afternoon, but Chris Sale should stop the bleeding on Monday against the Giants. 

San Francisco is hitting like a league average bunch since the All-Star break, and the Braves maintain elite power in the middle of the order, top 10 in OPS. 

While this game may feature a pitchers duel against a pair of left handers, I’ll side with Chris Sale due to his ability to allow soft contact and avoid base runners. Sale is in the 82nd percentile in walk percentage and 98th percentile in terms of hard-hit rate.

Meanwhile, Snell is also elite in terms of limiting hard contact, 98th percentile as well, but he walks nearly 10% of the batters he faces, 27th percentile. 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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