Mount St. Mary's vs. American Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for NCAA Tournament First Four

Reed Wallach | Mar 17, 2025

Nov 15, 2024; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; American University Eagles forward Matt Rogers (15) with the ball as North Carolina Tar Heels forward Jalen Washington (13) defends in the first half at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images / Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

The First Four resumes action on Wednesday night from Dayton, Ohio with another pair of games. 

The first matchup pits a pair of No. 16 seeds with Mount Saint Mary’s and American playing for a spot in the first round of the East Region against Duke. Both teams won its conference tournament to enter the NCAA Tournament field, but who will advance to a Friday game?

Here’s our betting preview. 

Mount Saint Mary’s vs. American Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Mount Saint Mary’s: +2.5 (-114)
• American: -2.5 (-106)

Moneyline

• Mount Saint Mary’s: +122
• American: -140

Total: 131.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Mount Saint Mary’s vs. American How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, March 19
• Game Time: 6:40 PM EST
• Venue: UD Arena
• How to Watch (TV): truTV
• Mount Saint Mary’s: 22-12
• American Record: 22-12

Mount Saint Mary’s vs. American Key Players to Watch

Mount Saint Mary’s

Dallas Hobbs: The sophomore guard was key in the Mountaineers’ conference championship victory, scoring 18 points while dishing out seven assists. Hobbs is the team’s hub on offense as a downhill threat that lives at the free throw line while also providing shot creation for the team’s limited offense. 

American

Matt Rogers: The American center scored 25 points against Navy in the Patriot League title game as a unique offensive weapon. The 6’9” big man is a dangerous floor spacer, shooting 40% from 3-point range on 145 attempts this season, and will face a Mount Saint Mary’s team that gives up plenty of perimeter shots, allowing the 30th highest three-point rate in the country. 

Mount Saint Mary’s vs. American Prediction and Pick

American should dictate the terms of this game with Rogers providing plenty of floor spacing that can stretch the Mount Saint Mary’s defense to a point it’s not equipped to handle. 

The Eagles are a 3-point reliant team with Rogers providing a ton of firepower on offense as a 40% shooter in Rogers loom as a center against a Mount Saint Mary’s defense that is compact and more than willing to let teams shoot from distance. 

The Mountaineers are also a 3-point offense that is top 100 in 3-point rate, but American’s defense is built to limit that impact, allowing the 77th lowest 3-point rate, which will put pressure on the likes of Hobbs to create offense where the team is far weaker. 

The key will be for American to dictate the pace, it ranks in the bottom 10 in adjusted tempo according to KenPom, which I believe it can do against a conservative MSM defense that won’t generate turnovers and allow the team to run its preferred offense throughout.

While the point spread going out over a possession is a bit nervy for a game that may feature limited possessions, I like American to seal it at the free throw line as a top 60 team in the nation from the charity stripe and cover the small spread. 

PICK: American -2.5 (-110, Available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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