Mount St. Mary's vs. Duke Prediction, Odds, Key Players to Watch for NCAA Tournament First Round

Reed Wallach | Mar 20, 2025

Feb 22, 2025; New York, NY, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Cooper Flagg (2) drives past Illinois Fighting Illini forward Will Riley (7) in the first half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images / Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

The No. 1 seed in the East Region, Duke, will begin its quest to a National Championship as an overwhelming favorite against No. 16 seed Mount Saint Mary’s, who defeated American in the First Four on Wednesday night. 

The Blue Devils are the betting favorites to win it all but have some injury questions looming with Cooper Flagg battling an ankle injury. What will be the impact on this game with such a lopsided spread? We have you covered with a full betting preview below!

Mount Saint Mary’s vs. Duke Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Mount Saint Mary’s: +32.5 (-115)
• Duke: -32.5 (-105)

Moneyline

• Mount Saint Mary’s: +7000
• Duke: -13300

Total: 140.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Mount Saint Mary’s vs. Duke How to Watch

• Date: Friday, March 21st
• Game Time: 2:50 PM EST
• Venue: Lenovo Center
• How to Watch (TV): CBS
• Mount Saint Mary’s Record: 22-12
• Duke Record: 31-3

Mount Saint Mary’s vs. Duke Key Players to Watch

Mount Saint Mary’s 

Dole Adebayo: The big man had a monster effort against American in the First Four, scoring 22 points to go with four rebounds and a block. A capable three-point shooter at 32%, Adebayo is going to have his hands full with the likes of Flagg and Khalam Maluach down low. 

Duke 

Cooper Flagg: Flagg left the ACC Tournament quarterfinals with a sprained ankle, but is expected to be full go for this game and the NCAA Tournament. The Wooden Award favorite led Duke in points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks per game as the best player in the country. How will he handle his first (and very likely only) March Madness run?

Cooper Flagg says he did full practice yesterday and thinks he'll go 100% tomorrow.

— Bryan Fischer (@BryanDFischer) March 20, 2025

Mount Saint Mary’s vs. Duke Prediction and Pick

Duke may not be interested in running up the score with its best player already nursing an ankle injury and the team’s defense profiles to completely overwhelm Mount Saint Mary’s, who will struggle to run its offense. 

The Mountaineers’ offense has been a poor ball-handling one all year, bottom 10 in the country in turnover rate and will struggle to find much headway against a Duke team that ranks as the tallest team in the country.  

Meanwhile, Mount Saint Mary’s defense does a good job of keeping teams outside the paint and forcing teams to work through its sets while bolstering a top 100 defensive rebounding rate in the country. 

In a game that should feature limited free throws, a constant running clock should help the under as long as Duke takes a more methodical approach in this one. 

With Flagg potentially limited, that would play more of a role on the offensive side of the floor as Duke looks to run through its sets and cruise to a defensive-minded victory. 

PICK: UNDER 140.5 (-105, Available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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