Mystics vs. Aces WNBA Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Thursday, July 4

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Washington Mystics-Las Vegas aces matchup in the WNBA on Thursday, July 4.

Las Vegas Aces forward A'ja Wilson. / Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

It’s been a rough 2024 season for the Washington Mystics, as they’ve dealt with injuries to some important players – Shakira Ausin and Brittney Sykes – which has limited their ceiling. 

After starting the season 0-12, the Mystics are 5-3 in their last eight games, but they still find themselves as massive underdogs on the road against the defending champion Las Vegas Aces. 

Las Vegas recently got Chelsea Gray back in the lineup, and it has won five games in a row to improve to 11-6 on the season, one game back of the No. 4 seed in the W. 

Does Las Vegas handle business again at home?

Here’s a look at the odds, key players to watch and my best bet for this matchup on July 4. 

Mystics vs. Aces Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Mystics +16.5 (-110)
• Aces -16.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Mystics: +1200
• Aces: -2400

Total

• 169.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Mystics vs. Aces How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, July 4
• Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Michelob Ultra Arena
• How to watch (TV): MNMT, WNBA League Pass
• Mystics record: 5-15
• Aces record: 11-6

Mystics vs. Aces Injury Reports

Mystics Injury Report

• Shakira Austin – out
• Brittney Sykes – out
• Karlie Samuelson – out

Aces Injury Report

• Tiffany Hayes – day-to-day

Mystics vs. Aces Key Players to Watch

Washington Mystics

Aaliyah Edwards: The future in Washington should be based around rookie Aaliyah Edwards. The young forward has been forced to step in for the injured Shakira Austin a lot this season, and she’s averaging 8.6 points and 6.2 rebounds per game. Edwards has come off the bench in the last two games for Washington. 

Las Vegas Aces 

A’ja Wilson: Wilson is running away with the MVP award, currently sitting at -600 at DraftKings Sportsbook due to her strong play in 2024. The Aces star is averaging 27.0 points, 11.0 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game while shooting 51.7 percent from the field and 38.1 percent from 3-point range. 

Mystics vs. Aces Prediction and Pick

Washington hasn’t lost a game by 17 or more points since it lost to Connecticut on June 4, and I think oddsmakers are giving the Aces a tough task by asking them to cover a 16.5-point spread.

These teams played on June 29 in Washington, and the Aces won that game by 11 points. However, Las Vegas is just 6-4 straight up at home, showing it is not nearly as dominant as it was last season. 

Gray being back certainly takes Las Vegas to another level, but she’s struggled with her shot (7.8 points per game) since returning. 

Washington is playing much better basketball as of late, ranking fifth in the league in net rating (one spot behind the Aces) since it picked up its first win of the season. 

While I don’t think an upset is in the cards, Washington can certainly cover in this game. The Mystics are now 12-6-1 against the spread after beating the Los Angeles Sparks on Tuesday. 

Pick: Mystics +16.5 (-110)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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