Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds and Prediction

Geoffrey Esper and James Webb lead the odds.

James Webb, center, is one of the top contenders for this year's hot dog eating contest. / Zachary Allen/The Pueblo Chieftain / USA

The annual Fourth of July Nathan’s Hot Dog eating contest took a hit when it announced 16-time champion Joey Chestnut was not competing in this year’s event due to a contract dispute. While that’s disappointing for the fans used to seeing him devour 60-plus dogs, it opened up the betting odds a bit and made this year’s contest more competitive. 

Chestnut was usually around -5000 to win the hot dog contest, which means you’d need to wager $5,000 to win just $100, which isn’t a smart bet even though it always hit.

With him out of the picture, Geoffrey Esper has emerged as the betting favorite with -105 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. James Webb is next at +145 followed by Nick Wehry (+650) and Patrick Bertoletti (+1000).

Esper placed second at the contest last year, chowing down 49 dogs. Webb was third with 47 and Wehry was fourth with 45. Chestnut won with 62.

Because I’m a sicko, I reviewed the qualifying results for the hot dog eating contest and Esper finished with 49.5, Bertoletti ate 48.25 and Wehry ate 48. I didn’t see anything on Webb qualifying, but he did win the Sausage-Eating Championship with 51, so he’s still out there grinding. 

What does it all mean? This is going to be a tight competition where any one of those four could win. There’s another bet available for “The Field” at +2500, but I wouldn’t bet that. 

Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest Prediction 

If you’re going to bet on the hot dog eating contest, I’d bet on one of the pros, Esper or Webb. If forced to choose, I’d lean Webb because he has better odds and has won six events this year, including the aforementioned sausage eating contest, as well as wings, donuts, pistachios, fudge, and donut holes.

Esper won a strawberry eating contest and is the top qualifier for the hot dog eating contest, eating an additional half hot dog than he did at last year’s competition. 

Here are the full odds from DraftKings.  

Nathan’s Men’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds 

• Geoffrey Esper -105 
• James Webb +145
• Nick Wehry +650
• Patrick Bertoletti +1000
• Field +2500
• Gideon Oji +4000
• Derek Hendrickson +7500
• Darrien Thomas +7500
• Max Stanford +7500
• George Chiger +7500

On the women’s side, Miki Sudo is expected to dominate again with -1200 odds at DraftKings. She’s won nine times and holds the record for most on the women’s side with 48.5. Don’t expect much competition here. 

Nathan’s Women’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds 

• Miki Sudo -1200
• Mayoi Ebihara +600
• Michelle Lesco +2200
• Katie Prettyman +500
• Field +5000
• Larell Marie Mele +10000

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook