Navy vs. Oklahoma Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Armed Forces Bowl

Reed Wallach | Dec 22, 2024

Oct 26, 2024; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Navy Midshipmen quarterback Blake Horvath (11) passes the ball during the second half against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images / Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Navy will make its return to a bowl game, this time against an SEC foe in hopes of proving its worth in the college football landscape this season. 

The Midshipmen enjoyed a resurgent 2024 with an improved offense and will look to compete with Oklahoma in the Armed Forces Bowl. The Sooners struggled in its first season in the SEC, and will be down a handful of players after several opted out of the bowl game and into the transfer portal. 

However, the Sooners are still a big favorite in the Armed Forces Bowl, is it justified?

Let’s break it down below!

Navy vs. Oklahoma Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Navy: +8.5 (-110)
• Oklahoma: -8.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Navy: -320
• Oklahoma: +255

Total: 43.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Navy vs. Oklahoma How to Watch

• Date: Friday, December 27th
• Game Time: 12:00 PM EST
• Venue: Amon G. Carter Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Navy Record: 9-3
• Oklahoma Record: 6-6

Navy vs. Oklahoma Key Players to Watch

Navy

Blake Horvath: With new offensive coordinator Drew Cronic, the Navy offense took off for much of this season. While Horvath suffered a mid-season hand injury that cost him the final game-plus ahead of the Army game, the Midshipmen ranked top 25 in the country in EPA/Play. Overall, Horvath passed for 1,154 yards and ran for 895 while totaling 24 touchdowns. 

Oklahoma

Michael Hawkins: Hawkins is expected to start the bowl game in place of Jackson Arnold, who hit the transfer portal following the season. Hawkins played a good bit this season, appearing in six games where he completed 62% of his passes and ran for 143 yards. He is a dangerous runner, but still developing as a freshman in this Sooners offense that has been riddled with injuries. 

Navy vs. Oklahoma Prediction and Pick

Given the litany of players in the transfer portal, I believe that we have a big motivation mismatch between Navy and Oklahoma that can offset some of the perceived talent edges for the Sooners side. 

While the drop-off from Arnold to Hawkins at quarterback may be marginal, the Sooners are going to be down at least four starting pass catchers as well as another injured starter and Nic Anderson on top of the team’s best wide receiver Deion Burks, who missed a good chunk of the season due to injuries. 

The Sooners offensive line was poor all season, bottom three in the country in sacks allowed, and while Navy won’t have the level of pass rushers as SEC teams, Oklahoma’s inability to sustain drives is going to loom large against a Navy offense that can keep the team on the sidelines for large parts of the game. 

The Midshipmen play at a methodical tempo and with its triple option principles is a tough prep for many teams, especially those going through a ton of transition like the Sooners are with this many key players in the transfer portal. 

Given the low total and high point spread, I’m inclined to grab the points with the underdog Midshipmen. 

PICK: Navy +8.5

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33

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