Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Domantas Sabonis, Julius Randle, Pelicans-Warriors)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Tuesday, Oct. 29.

Sacramento Kings forward Domantas Sabonis. / Jonathan Hui-Imagn Images

After a rough showing with five picks on Monday, I’m looking to bounce back on Tuesday night as the 2024-25 NBA season reaches the one-week mark.

There’s going to be some variability early on in the season every year, but the goal is to start sorting through that in the coming weeks as players begin to find their level after cold – or hot – starts to the campaign. 

On Tuesday, we have a four-game slate with several teams (Dallas, Denver, Utah and Sacramento) playing the second night of a back-to-back.

There’s also a key injury to note, as Golden State Warriors superstar Stephen Curry won’t play on Tuesday due to an ankle injury. Does that give the New Orleans Pelicans value as small favorites on the road? 

Here’s a breakdown of my top plays for Tuesday’s action: 

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024-25 season record: 12-14-1 (-1.97 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1022-959-23 (+36.11 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Julius Randle OVER 7.5 Rebounds (-120) – 0.5 unit
• Domantas Sabonis to Record a Triple-Double (+450) – 0.5 unit
• New Orleans Pelicans Moneyline (-155) vs. Golden State Warriors

Julius Randle OVER 7.5 Rebounds (-120) – 0.5 unit

Minnesota Timberwolves forward Julius Randle is off to a fast start with his new team, averaging 24.3 points, 7.7 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game while shooting 62.8 percent from the field and 53.8 percent from beyond the arc.

Minnesota has a Western Conference Finals rematch with the Dallas Mavericks tonight – and Dallas is playing the second night of a back-to-back after Monday’s win over the Utah Jazz. 

Randle could be in line for a big game on the glass after he grabbed nine boards in two of his first three games. Despite playing alongside Rudy Gobert, Randle still is seeing 14.0 rebound chances per game, and we only need him to grab eight to clear this prop.

This is a great matchup, as Dallas is allowing 49.7 opponent rebounds per game – 25th in the NBA. 

Jules has averaged at least 9.2 rebounds per game in each of his last five seasons. He’s a great bet to grab at least eight on Tuesday night. 

Domantas Sabonis to Record a Triple-Double (+450) – 0.5 unit

A triple-double prop at +450? Why not!

Sacramento Kings big man Domantas Sabonis led the NBA in triple-doubles last season, and he already has one in his first three games this season.

On Tuesday, he and the Kings take on the Jazz, who have been one of the worst defensive teams in the league (28th in defensive rating) through three games. 

The key for Sabonis here is his assists. He’s going to grab 10 rebounds and score 10 points – he only had five games without a double-double last season. 

Utah is allowing 30 opponent assists per game so far this season – the most in the NBA – so Sabonis should be able to get his teammates some easy looks. After picking up just one dime in the Kings’ season opener, Sabonis has 10 and seven assists in his last two matchups. He’s also averaging 12.3 potential assists per game. 

This is worth a sprinkle on Tuesday. 

New Orleans Pelicans Moneyline (-155) vs. Golden State Warriors

As I mentioned, the Warriors are without Curry on Tuesday which puts them in a tough spot against a New Orleans team that is also banged up – down Dejounte Murray and Trey Murphy III. 

The Pelicans have gotten off to a weird start, beating the Chicago Bulls by double-digits before barely beating the Portland Trail Blazers, and then losing to Portland by 20-plus, over the weekend. 

I think this is a bounce-back spot for the Pelicans, who don’t have a traditional center playing big minutes, as they’re facing a smaller Golden State team.

The Warriors are content with playing Trayce Jackson-Davis and Draymond Green as their primary bigs, which shouldn't cause a matchup issue for the Pels. In fact, it may encourage head coach Willie Green to go small with his best lineup. 

Last season, Golden State was just 3-5 in the games that Curry missed, and it is 25-27 overall in the last three seasons when the two-time MVP sits out. 

I am not sold on Golden State having enough offense to beat the Pels – even at home – on Tuesday night. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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