Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Celtics vs. Nuggets, Kyle Kuzma and More)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Tuesday, Jan. 7, including a pick for the Boston Celtics-Denver Nuggets matchup.

The Boston Celtics are a solid bet against the Denver Nuggets on Tuesday. / David Butler II-Imagn Images

Tuesday’s NBA action features a few marquee matchups with the Boston Celtics hitting the road to play Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets and LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers facing Klay Thompson and the Dallas Mavericks. 

With seven games on the docket, there are plenty of ways to bet on The Association tonight. I’m leaning with a few sides, including a moneyline parlay, as well as one player prop for Tuesday’s action. 

Mikal Bridges and the Indiana Pacers came through for us on Monday night, but one the season we’re still in the negative. Hopefully, Tuesday’s slate offers an opportunity to make some inroads on that as we near the midway point of the 2024-25 season. 

Let’s break down the three plays I’m taking for Jan. 7. 

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024-25 season record: 101-103-4 (-4.32 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1111-1048-26 (+33.77 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Boston Celtics 1H -2.5 (-120) vs. Denver Nuggets
• Atlanta Hawks-Houston Rockets Moneyline Parlay (-158)
• Kyle Kuzma UNDER 28.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-110)

Boston Celtics 1H -2.5 (-120) vs. Denver Nuggets

Last season, Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics had far and away the best against the spread record in the first half of games in the NBA. 

That hasn’t continued into the 2024-25 campaign – Boston is just 17-19 against the spread in the first half – but it has a favorable matchup on Tuesday night.

Denver comes into this game with a dreadful 8-26 ATS record in the first half, by far the worst mark in the NBA. In fact, only the Orlando Magic (13-25 ATS) and Charlotte Hornets (12-22 ATS) are down more than 10 units in the first half this season, but Denver has bettors down over 22 units if they took their first half spread every night. 

With Aaron Gordon out for the Nuggets tonight, I think they could be in trouble against a Boston offense that is due for a bounce-back showing after putting up just 27 second-half points against the Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday.

The C’s rank No. 2 in the NBA in first half net rating on the road (+13.3) while Denver is 26th in the NBA in first half net rating at home (-7.8). 

Without Gordon – an elite defense stopper – the Nuggets are going to have to rely more on their offense in this game. I don’t think that’s the way to compete with Boston, which ranks No. 2 in the NBA in offensive rating. 

Plus, the C’s don’t have a single key rotation player on their injury report tonight. I expect them to get out to an early lead in Denver. 

Atlanta Hawks-Houston Rockets Moneyline Parlay (-158)

A little moneyline parlay on Tuesday? There are two road teams that I think are in a great spot to pick up a win tonight, starting with the Atlanta Hawks. 

Atlanta Hawks

Atlanta is a 6.5-point road favorite on Tuesday against the Utah Jazz. While the Hawks are just 2-3 straight up and 1-4 against the spread in this spot this season, I do think they’re primed to pick up a win tonight.

After knocking off Miami and Orlando in an East Coast trip, the Jazz return home where they are a shocking 2-12 straight up this season and have a net rating of -9.8 – good for 29th in the NBA.

Plus, Utah is down several key players on Tuesday with Jordan Clarkson, John Collins and Keyonte George all already ruled out. Lauri Markkanen is also listed as questionable.

Atlanta enters this game on a three-game skid, but the Hawks are still the No. 8 seed in the East. Overall, the Hawks have a net rating that is nearly five points better than the Jazz this season. 

There is a little concern with Jalen Johnson out tonight for Atlanta, but I still think the Hawks have enough offensive firepower to win this matchup against a Jazz team that is more concerned about getting Cooper Flagg – or another top player in the draft – than winning games this season. 

Houston Rockets

Alperen Sengun and the Houston Rockets find themselves as road favorites as well on Tuesday, and they’re playing the six-win Washington Wizards.

Washington has lost back-to-back games and is just 5-14 overall at home, putting it in a tough spot against the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference.

The key difference in this game is on the defensive end, as the Rockets are No. 3 in the league in defensive rating while Washington clocks in at No. 28. That’s led to the Wizards posting the worst net rating in the NBA, as they also rank dead last in the league in offensive rating.

Houston is 6-4 against the spread when favored on the road (Washington is 8-11 ATS as a home dog), and it has won 10 of 16 road games overall – including eight of the 10 that it's been favored in. 

This is a no brainer game to take the Rockets.

Kyle Kuzma UNDER 28.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-110)

Wizards forward Kyle Kuzma is coming off one of his best games of the season, scoring 28 points on 13-of-23 shooting in a loss to the New Orleans Pelicans.

Now, Kuzma is set at 28.5 points, rebounds and assists on Tuesday against Houston, despite the fact that he’s cleared this line just five times in 16 games this season.

The veteran forward is playing just 27.0 minutes per game this season, and while he returned to the starting lineup for Washington’s last two games, his 23-shot game was his first game with double-digit attempts since returning from injury. 

Houston has the No. 3 defense in the NBA while the Pelicans clock in at No. 29, so this is a significantly tougher matchup for Kuzma. Not only that, but Kuzma has needed to score 22 or more points in all five games that he’s cleared this prop. 

He’s not doing much elsewhere, averaging just 5.4 rebounds and 2.1 assists per game on the season. I’m selling high on him after he torched one of the worst defenses in the NBA.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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