Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Giannis Antetokounmpo, Thunder-Bucks in NBA Cup)
![Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo is an elite prop target tonight. Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo is an elite prop target tonight.](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/c_crop,w_4619,h_2598,x_0,y_60/c_fill,w_720,ar_16:9,f_auto,q_auto,g_auto/images/ImagnImages/mmsport/si/01jf8nqd8xt5pzfsfhdk.jpg)
After weeks of NBA Cup Group Play matchups and a thrilling knockout round to date, a winner of the second NBA Cup will be crowned on Tuesday night.
So, of course, we’re going to bet on it!
Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks find themselves as five-point underdogs on Tuesday night against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder, but the Bucks have played some great basketball after a really slow start.
Meanwhile, OKC is the No. 1 seed in the West and was battle tested in the knockout stage, beating Dallas and Houston to advance to the Final tonight.
This is a standalone game, but there are still hundreds of bets to choose from.
Here are my favorites for Bucks-Thunder with the NBA Cup — and over half a million dollars — on the line.
NBA Best Bets Record to Date
- 2024-25 season record: 82-81-3 (-1.18 units)
- OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1092-1026-25 (+36.90 units)
Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
NBA Best Bets Today
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 29.5 Points (-120) – 0.5 unit
- Oklahoma City Thunder -5 (-110) vs. Milwaukee Bucks – 0.5 unit
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 10.5 Rebounds and Assists (-130) – 0.5 unit
- Gary Trent Jr. OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-120) – 0.5 unit
Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 29.5 Points (-120) – 0.5 unit
An MVP candidate this season, Giannis has been on a scoring rampage, averaging 32.7 points per game while shooting an insane 61.4 percent from the field.
He’s scored at least 30 points in five straight games, putting up 30+ in 16 of his 23 games this season.
While OKC has the No. 1 defensive rating in the NBA, it doesn’t have anyone that is a great matchup for Giannis. Sure, Isaiah Hartenstein may be able to help protect the rim, but with Chet Holmgren sidelined, OKC has very little depth in the frontcourt. Lu Dort will likely start on Giannis, but he’s giving up several inches height wise on defense.
I’ll buy Giannis at this number in a must-win game for the NBA Cup title.
Oklahoma City Thunder -5 (-110) vs. Milwaukee Bucks – 0.5 unit
Milwaukee has really turned things around since the start of the season, but it also had a fortunate path to the NBA Cup Championship, facing a banged up Orlando team (without Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero) and an upstart Atlanta Hawks team that pulled off some upsets to make the semifinals.
Milwaukee isn’t nearly as battle tested – or as deep – as this Thunder squad that ranks first in net rating, first in defensive rating and eighth in offensive rating this season.
The Thunder have a ton of 3-and-D options that should make things tough on Damian Lillard, and just how far can Giannis carry this Bucks team?
Plus, Milwaukee’s guard defense has been downright awful, and now it has to deal with SGA and Jalen Williams. I just don’t see where the Bucks have an advantage, outside of Giannis turning in a 40-point game – and maybe he will.
Yes, the Bucks are playing much better as of late, winning eight of their last 10 games to pull into the playoff picture in the East. That being said, there are still some glaring holes on the roster – specifically on the wing with Khris Middleton still on a minutes limit.
I’ll back OKC here, as it has gone 15-9 against the spread as a favorite, winning those games by an average margin of 12.0 points per game. The Bucks, on the other hand, are just .500 against the spread as underdogs.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 10.5 Rebounds and Assists (-130) – 0.5 unit
SGA has been scoring the ball at a high rate as of late, but I think there is value in taking him to do the other things against a Bucks defense that has struggled to defend opposing guards all season long.
Milwaukee is allowing over 28 points, 6.8 rebounds and 8.2 assists per game to opposing point guards this season, and Trae Young and Jalen Suggs torched the Bucks in the first two games in the knockout round.
So, I expect another big game from SGA, who is averaging 5.5 rebounds and 6.3 assists per game on the season. SGA has at least 11 rebounds and assists in 14 games this season, including seven of his last 10.
I also don’t mind taking him to go OVER 32.5 points, but that’s a much loftier number than this prop on Tuesday.
Gary Trent Jr. OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-120) – 0.5 unit
I’m buying Bucks guard Gary Trent Jr. on Tuesday, as they’ll need him defensively against all of the Thunder’s young wings.
Trent got off to a slow start, but he’s now shooting 38.8 percent from 3 this season, hitting two or more shots from 3 in five of his last six games and 11 of his last 15 games – shooting 46.8 percent from 3 over that stretch.
There is some risk involved since Trent is coming off the bench and isn’t guaranteed shots, but he’s taken at least four shots from 3 in 13 of his last 15 games.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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