Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Jalen Green in Rockets vs. Mavericks)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Thursday, Oct. 31.

Houston Rockets guard Jalen Green. / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Thursday’s NBA action features several teams on the second night of a back-to-back (Memphis, San Antonio and the Los Angeles Clippers), meaning there is just one game – Dallas against Houston – where we have a full injury report for who will play tonight. 

I’m looking to make just one bet on Thursday, as there is a ton of uncertainty across the board when it comes to injuries. 

Both Desmond Bane and Marcus Smart were injured in the Grizzlies loss on Wednesday to the Brooklyn Nets, and in some other games key players like Lauri Markkanen and Bradley Beal are listed as questionable, which could really swing how those matchups end up. 

As always, there’s a chance to make a bet after I release this column, but there is a bet I love between Houston and Dallas. So, let’s break it down. 

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024-25 season record: 15-20-1 (-3.63 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1025-965-23 (+34.46 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Jalen Green OVER 23.5 Points (-120) -- 0.5 unit

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Jalen Green OVER 23.5 Points (-120) -- 0.5 unit

Houston Rockets guard Jalen Green is off to a fast start in the 2024-25 season, averaging 28.8 points per game while shooting 43.2 percent from the field and 41.3 percent from beyond the arc. 

Houston’s decision to pay Green this offseason is looking like a good move right now, as he’s scored at least 22 points in all four of the Rockets’ games, carrying the offense in a win over the Spurs (36 points) their last time out. 

Green’s usage rate is sitting at 31.4 this season – a career-high – and he’s taken at least 21 shots in every game this season. In addition to that, Green is getting to the line, averaging six free-throw attempts per game. 

I think this is a favorable matchup for him after Dallas allowed 24 first quarter points – 37 overall – to Anthony Edwards on Tuesday night. The usage for Green is key, as he’s shot well enough where taking 20-plus shots should get him over this line. 

He’s cleared 23.5 points in three of his four games, and I expect this matchup to be relatively close – Houston is a 6.5-point underdog – which should help avoid Green getting sat down in garbage time. 

With the Mavericks moving on from Derrick Jones Jr. in the offseason, they don’t have an elite guard defender in their starting lineup. Green may draw an assignment from PJ Washington, but it’s also possible he starts against Kyrie Irving or Klay Thompson. If that’s the case, I love this number for Green on Thursday. 

Bonus: Luka Doncic 3-Point Prop

I’m eyeing Luka Doncic in the 3-point prop market – but as of this writing I haven’t bet his prop yet because the odds for him to go OVER 2.5 3-pointers (-175) are a little high for my liking. 

Depending upon the movement in this prop up until game time, this could be something that I add to my card. Doncic has taken at least eight 3-pointers in every game this season, but he’s just 2-for-17 from beyond the arc over his last two games. 

If Doncic’s prop stays at 2.5, there’s a chance I end up betting the OVER based off of volume, but given his struggles, if that -175 ends up getting bet heavily and oddsmakers move the line to 3.5, it may be a good spot to take the UNDER. 

Stay tuned with my Betstamp (@peter2dewey) to get real-time updates on the bets I place.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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