Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Jalen Johnson, RJ Barrett on Friday)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA Cup action on Friday, Nov. 29.

Atlanta Hawks forward Jalen Johnson is a great prop target tonight. / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

After a day off for Thanksgiving the NBA returns on Friday with a ton of NBA Cup Group Play matchups. 

I’m eyeing three plays for this matchup, all in the prop market, with several games featuring double-digit spreads or some key players listed as questionable.

Let’s break down the plays for Nov. 29!

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024-25 season record: 62-59-1 (+1.49 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1072-1004-23 (+39.59 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• RJ Barrett OVER 20.5 Points (-110) – 0.5 unit
• Josh Hart OVER 11.5 Points (-125) – 0.5 unit
• Jalen Johnson OVR 33.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-125) – 0.5 unit

RJ Barrett OVER 20.5 Points (-110) – 0.5 unit

RJ Barrett is off to a strong start in the 2024-25 season, averaging 22.8 points per game while shooting 43.2 percent from the field and 33.3 percent from 3.

Barrett’s efficiency hasn’t been ideal, but the Raptors have been down Immanuel Quickley, Bruce Brown and Scottie Barnes for a large chunk of this season, putting a lot of pressure on Barrett to carry the offense.

Barnes is back, but Quickley, Brown and second-year sharpshooter Gradey Dick are all out on Friday against the Miami Heat.

That should lead to a few more shots for Barrett, who has taken at least 14 shots in every game and is averaging 18.9 field goal attempts and 6.4 free throw attempts per game this season. Even though Miami ranks ninth in the NBA in defensive rating, Barrett’s usage has been too large for me to fade him tonight.

He’s cleared 20.5 points in nine of his 16 appearances this season. 

Josh Hart OVER 11.5 Points (-125) – 0.5 unit

Knicks wing Josh Hart keeps scoring the ball at a solid clip – 14.0 points per game – despite being the No. 5 option in the starting lineup.

Hart has scored 12 or more points in seven straight games, and now he faces a Charlotte Hornets team that is down key rotation players like LaMelo Ball, Miles Bridges, Grant Williams, Tre Mann, Nick Richards and Mark Williams on Friday night.

Hart is playing over 37 minutes per game for the Knicks, and he’s still attempting 9.0 shots per game. I’ll back him to keep his scoring streak going tonight. 

Jalen Johnson OVR 33.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-125) – 0.5 unit

Atlanta Hawks forward Jalen Johnson has played terrific in the 2024-25 season, showing that Atlanta made the right move to extend his contract this past offseason.

The former first-round pick is averaging 20.1 points, 10.3 rebounds and 5.2 assists per game while shooting 48.8 percent from the field and 34.5 percent from 3.

Johnson is coming off a 22-point, nine-rebound, seven-assist game in Wednesday’s win over the Cleveland Cavaliers, and I think he can clear 33.5 PRA once again on Friday.

Here’s a look at Johnson’s PRA totals over his last 10 games:

• @ CLE: 22 points, 9 rebounds, 7 assists – 38 PRA
• vs. DAL: 28 points, 11 rebounds, 3 assists – 42 PRA
• vs. CHI: 25 points, 13 rebounds, 5 assists – 43 PRA
• vs. GSW: 15 points, 14 rebounds, 4 assists – 33 PRA
• @ POR: 25 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists – 33 PRA
• vs. WAS: 18 points, 13 rebounds, 7 assists – 38 PRA
• @ BOS: 18 points, 12 rebounds, 10 assists – 40 PRA
• vs. CHI: 20 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists – 31 PRA
• @ DET: 20 points, 9 rebounds, 1 assist – 30 PRA
• vs. NYK: 23 points, 15 rebounds, 7 assists – 45 PRA

So, Johnson has cleared 33.5 PRA in six of his last 10 games, finishing with 30 or more PRA in each game – giving him a great floor.

On the season, he’s cleared 33.5 PRA in 10 of his 18 games, averaging over 35 PRA per game. I’ll ride the hot hand on Friday night.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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