Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Josh Hart, Kings-Celtics, Paolo Banchero)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Friday, Jan. 10, including a pick for Josh Hart.

New York Knicks guard Josh Hart is a great prop target tonight. / Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

Happy Friday, NBA fans!

After a 2-2 day on Thursday night, including a hit on a plus-money prop for Devin Booker, I’m back with three more plays for the seven-game slate on Friday night. 

There are some interesting matchups on Friday, headlined by the New York Knicks and Oklahoma City Thunder matching up for the second time in 10 days. Plus, Paolo Banchero is expected to make his return to action for the Orlando Magic in a matchup with the Milwaukee Bucks. 

I have picks for players in both of those games, including a fun little four-player parlay to consider on Friday.

Here’s a full breakdown of my top bets tonight. 

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024-25 season record: 105-106-4 (-3.82 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1115-1051-26 (+34.27 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

 NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Sacramento Kings +10.5 (-108) vs. Boston Celtics
• Josh Hart OVER 8.5 Rebounds (-140)
• Player Prop Parlay (-122)

Sacramento Kings +10.5 (-108) vs. Boston Celtics

Are the Sacramento Kings undervalued on Friday?

The Kings have rattled off five straight wins, and they may get De’Aaron Fox (questionable) back in the lineup tonight against the defending champion Boston Celtics.

As good as Boston is this season, the C’s are just 7-12 against the spread when favored at home, posting an averaging scoring margin of +10.2 points per game in those matchups.

Meanwhile, the Kings are one of the best teams in the NBA as a road underdog, going 4-2 against the spread with an average scoring margin of +7.0 points in those matchups.

The Kings have really turned things around over their last five games, ranking No. 2 in the NBA in net rating in that stretch – behind only Boston.

Plus, the Kings have played the third-most clutch games in the NBA (22), which are defined as games that are within five points in the final five minutes. That bodes well for their chances of hanging around on Friday. 

Josh Hart OVER 8.5 Rebounds (-140)

This is a great matchup for Josh Hart – especially if Karl-Anthony Towns (questionable) sits out this game for the Knicks. Towns returned to the lineup on Wednesday night, but he’s remained on the injury report with a knee injury.

Hart only had seven boards in the last matchup with OKC, but he’s picked up at least 11 rebounds in eight of his last nine games overall. On the season, Hart is averaging 9.1 rebounds per game.

Now, he gets to take on an OKC team that allows the second-most opponent rebounds per game while ranking 29th in rebounding percentage. I’ll buy Hart with this number set below his season average tonight. 

Player Prop Parlay (-122)

• DeMar DeRozan 12+ Points
• Mikal Bridges 12+ Points
• Zion Williamson 15+ Points
• Paolo Banchero 12+ Points

DeMar DeRozan 12+ Points

So far this season, Sacramento Kings wing DeMar DeRozan is averaging 20.8 points per game while shooting 48.6 percent from the field. 

He could be in line for a big game on Friday night if De’Aaron Fox (questionable) sits out, as DeRozan dropped 30 points in his last game without the All-Star guard.

When it comes to this parlay, I’m taking DeRozan to score at least 12 points against Boston, a number he’s hit in 29 of his 32 games in the 2024-25 season. 

Mikal Bridges 12+ Points

Knicks wing Mikal Bridges dropped 24 points against the Thunder the last time these teams matched up, and he’s been on fire since the start of December, averaging 21.3 points per game while shooting 53.6 percent from the field.

Over that stretch, Bridges has just one game (his last one) out of 19 where he finished with less than 12 points. Since he’s playing around 40 minutes per game in that stretch, he’s a must bet at this discounted number. 

Zion Williamson 15+ Points

After a lengthy absence with a hamstring injury, Zion Williamson returned to action on Jan. 7, scoring 22 points on 9-of-15 shooting in nearly 28 minutes of action.

While Zion is likely to remain on a minutes restriction, he should get all the shots he can handle against the Philadelphia 76ers tonight. The Sixers rank just 15th in defensive rating, and the New Orleans Pelicans have already ruled out Brandon Ingram, Herb Jones and Trey Murphy III while listing Dejounte Murray as questionable.

When it comes to Zion’s points prop, I don’t mind moving things down to 15+, a number he’s hit in five of seven games this season, averaging 22.6 points per game overall. 

Paolo Banchero 12+ Points

Banchero is making his return from an oblique injury, and he’s expected to be on a minutes limit tonight against the Bucks.

Despite the minutes limit, Banchero should be able to get all of the shots he wants with Franze Wagner, Jalen Suggs and Moe Wagner all banged up for Orlando. The Magic have one of the worst offenses in the NBA, so they’ll gladly welcome Banchero back into action. 

This season, Paolo is averaging 29.0 points per game across five games, putting up at least 15 points in all of those matchups. 

Even with shorter minutes, I’m taking Banchero to get 12+ points against a middling Milwaukee defense.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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