Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Kevin Durant, Celtics-Pelicans, Nuggets-76ers)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Friday, Jan. 31, including a pick for Kevin Durant.

Phoenix Suns forward Kevin Durant is an intriguing prop target on Friday. / Aryanna Frank-Imagn Images

The month of January has not been kind to yours truly when it comes to betting the NBA, but Friday offers a chance to close out the month strong with plenty of marquee matchups in action: 

• Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors
• Denver Nuggets at Philadelphia 76ers
• Milwaukee Bucks at San Antonio Spurs

I’m eyeing four best on Friday night, including a moneyline parlay between three major favorites. Plus, there are a few players that may be undervalued in the prop market tonight.

Here’s a full breakdown of each of the bets for the final day of January!

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024-25 season record: 128-134-4 (-4.57 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1186-1079-26 (+33.52 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Vasilije Micic OVER 18.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-110)
• Trey Murphy III OVER 8.5 Rebounds and Assists (-115)
• Kevin Durant OVER 25.5 Points (-110)
• 3-Team Moneyline Parlay (-159)

Vasilije Micic OVER 18.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-110)

Charlotte Hornets guard Vasilije Micic should be in line for a major role on Friday night with the Hornets down LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, Tre Mann, Mark Williams and Tidjane Salaun. 

Micic earned the start in the Hornets’ recent loss to Brooklyn, putting up 15 points, seven rebounds and six assists despite playing less than 30 minutes. He’s been impressive as a starter this season, averaging 11.9 points, 3.2 rebounds and 5.9 assists per game in 13 starts.

Even though the Los Angeles Clippers are one of the better defensive teams in the league, Micic should have a role as one of the primary ball-handlers for Charlotte tonight. Since he’s been able to do much more than just score as a starter this season – I think he’s a steal at this number on Friday. 

Trey Murphy III OVER 8.5 Rebounds and Assists (-115)

New Orleans Pelicans win Trey Murphy III is having a great 2024-25 season – despite his team’s struggles – averaging 21.5 points, 5.1 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game. 

Murphy has really stuffed the stat sheet as of late, putting up at least nine rebounds and assists in 11 straight matchups – averaging 6.3 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game over that stretch. 

He should have a big role at home against Boston on Friday, especially since Brandon Ingram remains out of the lineup and Jordan Hawkins is questionable. Murphy has only gone under this prop one time since Jan. 1. 

Kevin Durant OVER 25.5 Points (-110)

Phoenix Suns star Kevin Durant has a revenge matchup with his former team – the Golden State Warriors – on Friday.

In two games against the Warriors this season, Durant has scored 21 points (on 7-of-20 shooting) and 31 points (on 10-of-24 shooting). While KD is averaging 27.3 points per game for the season, he’s set just below that number tonight.

Durant has cleared 25.5 points in six games this month, and he’s averaging 19.2 shots per game over his last six contests. An efficient scorer (Durant is shooting 52.7 percent from the field and 40.2 percent from 3), KD should be in the mix to clear this prop if his usage remains around 20 shots. 

The Warriors are a top-10 defense this season, but they allowed 50 points to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander earlier this week. 

3-Team Moneyline Parlay (-159)

• Los Angeles Clippers Moneyline
• Denver Nuggets Moneyline
• Boston Celtics Moneyline

I’ll be honest, this parlay isn’t offering a ton of intrigue, but I do think it’s a way to cash an easy win on Friday night. 

Los Angeles Clippers Moneyline

So far this season, the Clippers have thrived when favored – even on the road. 

In seven games as a road favorite, the Clippers are 4-3 against the spread and 5-2 straight up, and they’re the biggest favorite on the board tonight against a shorthanded Charlotte squad.

Ball, Miller, Williams, Mann and Salaun all being out for this game significantly limits the Hornets’ ceiling, and they lost by over 20 to a lowly Brooklyn team in their last game. 

The Clippers should have all of their key starters – Kawhi Leonard, James Harden, Norman Powell and Ivica Zubac – in action tonight, and Los Angeles has been elite since Leonard returned to action.

Over the Clippers’ last 10 games, they rank No. 1 in the NBA in net rating (+12.9). Over that same stretch, Charlotte is just 17th in net rating despite winning five of those games. 

I’ll gladly back the Clippers as the first leg of this moneyline parlay. 

Denver Nuggets Moneyline

The Denver Nuggets once again won’t face Joel Embiid on Friday night, and Philly has also ruled out Paul George, Andre Drummond, Caleb Martin and KJ Martin.

Denver beat the Sixers by 35 points earlier this season in Denver, and it enters this game as a sizable road favorite. As a road favorite, the Nuggets are just 7-10 against the spread, but they’ve won 10 of those 17 games.

Philly has won four games in a row behind some strong play from Tyrese Maxey, but I think that comes to an end here. 

The Sixers lack the interior defense to compete with Jokic, Aaron Gordon and Russell Westbrook attacking the rim, and the Sixers are just 6-6-1 against the spread as a home underdog this season.

I’m not buying Philly’s win streak too much, as it still ranks 23rd in the league in net rating over its last 10 games. 

Boston Celtics Moneyline

The Boston Celtics are 10-10-1 against the spread as a road favorite this season, but they’ve won those games at an extremely high rate, going 17-4 overall. 

Now, Boston faces a New Orleans Pelicans team that is in the bottom five in the league in offensive, defensive and net rating. Not only that, but the Pelicans enter this game on a four-game losing streak.

New Orleans is 8-8-1 against the spread as a home underdog, but with Brandon Ingram still out, I am not sold on the Pelicans keeping pace with Boston. The C’s – despite a down stretch this month – still rank seventh in the NBA in net rating over their last 10 games.

Boston has also won three of its last four on the road in impressive fashion against the Dallas Mavericks, Los Angeles Clippers and Golden State Warriors.

Don’t be shocked if Boston runs away with this matchup on Friday night.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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