Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Kevin Durant, Clippers-Timberwolves, Wemby)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Monday, Jan. 6, including a pick for Kevin Durant.

Phoenix Suns forward Kevin Durant is an elite prop target on Monday night. / Aryanna Frank-Imagn Images

The NBA features a huge nine-game slate on Monday night, including matchups between Kevin Durant and Joel Embiid and the Los Angeles Clippers’ second game of the season with Kawhi Leonard in the lineup. 

Plus, several Eastern Conference playoff contenders are in action, including the Indiana Pacers, New York Knicks, Orlando Magic, Milwaukee Bucks and Miami Heat. 

There are a ton of different plays to consider on Monday, but I’ve narrowed things down to three props and two sides. After a down showing on Sunday, let’s get back on the right foot to start this week. 

Here’s a breakdown of each of the bets, including a prop for Kevin Durant, on Jan. 6. 

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024-25 season record: 99-100-4 (-4.66 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1109-1045-26 (+33.43 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Indiana Pacers -9.5 (-112) vs. Brooklyn Nets 
• Kevin Durant OVER 24.5 Points (-120)
• Mikal Bridges OVER 17.5 Points (-105)
• Victor Wembanyama OVER 27.5 Points (-115)
• Los Angeles Clippers Moneyline (+124) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

Indiana Pacers -9.5 (-112) vs. Brooklyn Nets 

The Indiana Pacers have been far from a good team on the road in the 2024-25 season, going 9-12 straight up, but they’ve turned things around as of late. 

Over their last seven road games, Indiana is 7-1 straight up and against the spread, posting three double-digit wins and six wins by nine points or more over that stretch.

Has the switch flipped for Tyrese Haliburton and company? Some of those road wins have been impressive against teams like Miami, Boston, Golden State, Phoenix and Sacramento, and now the Pacers are heavily favored on the road against the Brooklyn Nets.

Brooklyn is down a boatload of players on Monday night, including Cam Thomas, Cam Johnson and potentially D’Angelo Russell (questionable) and Ben Simmons (questionable). 

The Nets have dropped seven of their last 10 games and are just 5-6 against the spread as home dogs this season, posting an average scoring margin of -9.9 points per game in those contests.

To top it off, Brooklyn is just 5-10 straight up at home and has fallen to 24th in the NBA in net rating at its home arena. I’m not going to overthink this bet and back the Pacers to stay hot. 

Kevin Durant OVER 24.5 Points (-120)

We’re getting a little bit of a discounted prop for Kevin Durant in the Phoenix Suns’ matchup with the Philadelphia 76ers on Monday night.

KD is averaging 27.6 points per game, yet we only need a smooth 25 out of him to clear this prop. Part of the reason for this discounted number is the fact that the Pacers are in the bottom three in the NBA in pace this season, leading to a few less possessions on both sides in their games.

However, Philly is just 15th in the NBA in defensive rating, and Durant torched the Sixers for 35 points on 14-of-20 shooting earlier this season. 

In his last 10 games since returning from a three-game absence, Durant has scored 25 or more points eight times, averaging 30.0 points on 21.0 field attempts per game in that stretch. If his usage remains around that number, he is a must-bet at 24.5 points on Monday. 

Mikal Bridges OVER 17.5 Points (-105)

I’m buying New York Knicks wing Mikal Bridges on Monday – even against a stingy Orlando Magic defense.

Bridges scored 17 points in each of his first two meetings against Orlando, but he attempted just 11 and 12 shots in those two games. Now, Karl-Anthony Towns (knee) is questionable for the Knicks tonight, which could open up a few more shots for Bridges.

If Towns sits, this number will likely skyrocket for Bridges, especially since he’s coming into this game on a major hot streak. Since Dec. 1 (a 17-game stretch), Bridges is averaging 21.8 points per game while shooting 55.9 percent from the field and 40.7 percent from 3. He’s attempting 15.9 shots per game over that stretch, picking up 18 or more points in 12 of those matchups.

He should thrive on Monday – especially if Towns doesn’t suit up. 

Victor Wembanyama OVER 27.5 Points (-115)

San Antonio Spurs superstar Victor Wembanyama is having a crazy stretch right now, averaging 28.0 points, 10.9 rebounds, 4.6 assists and 4.0 blocks per game over his last 17 contests. Over that stretch, Wemby is attempting 20.4 shots and 9.9 3s per game, shooting an impressive 49.0 percent from the field and 36.3 percent from 3.

On Monday, it’s hard to find a better matchup for the former No. 1 overall pick. The Spurs are road favorites against the Chicago Bulls, who allow the second-most points per game in the NBA and rank No. 1 in pace and No. 24 in defensive rating.

Wemby didn’t play in the first meeting between these teams, but he’s scored 28 or more points in three of his last six games.

I also think there isn’t a great matchup for Chicago against the Spurs big man, as Nikola Vucevic can’t really handle Wemby on the perimeter and the Bulls lack size at the four spot to really affect him at the rim. 

If this game turns into a track meet – like many Bulls games do – Wemby is a must bet to score a ton of points. 

Los Angeles Clippers Moneyline (+124) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

Kawhi Leonard returned to action for the Los Angeles Clippers on Jan. 4 against the Atlanta Hawks, and L.A. promptly turned in a 26-point win at home.

Now, the Clippers hit the road and find themselves as road dogs against the Minnesota Timberwolves, who haven’t exactly protected home court this season.

Minnesota is just 4-11 against the spread as a home favorite and 9-7 straight up at home this season. It also enters this game on a three-game losing streak.

With the emergence of Norman Powell as a borderline All-Star this season, the Clippers can afford to slowly bring Leonard along in this offense. He played 19 minutes in his season debut, scoring 12 points (on 4-of-11 shooting) to go with three rebounds, one assist and one steal.

There’s no doubt that the two-time NBA Finals MVP raises Los Angeles’ ceiling, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Clippers pull off the upset in this matchup. 

Overall this season, Los Angeles outranks the Wolves in net rating and defensive rating while sitting just behind them in offensive rating. Leonard should be able to raise the ceiling of that offense as the season progresses.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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