Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Luka Doncic, Thunder-Nuggets and Celtics Wizards)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Thursday, Oct. 24.

Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. / Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

The last few teams that have yet to make their 2024-25 regular season debuts will do so on Thursday night, and it leads to some terrific matchups in the Association.

Luka Doncic and the defending Western Conference champion Dallas Mavericks host the San Antonio Spurs and phenom Victor Wembanyama early in the night, and they’ll be followed by the two top regular season teams in the West from the 2023-24 campaign, the Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder at 10 p.m. EST.

Those two matchups highlight a four-game slate, although the late-night action also features DeMar DeRozan’s Sacramento Kings debut against the Minnesota Timberwolves. 

With only four games, I’m sticking to four plays – all half units – as we get to see many teams play for the first time in the 2024-25 season. 

Here’s a breakdown of Thursday’s best bets. 

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024-25 season record: 4-5 (-0.97 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1014-950-22 (+37.12 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Oklahoma City Thunder Moneyline (+110) vs. Denver Nuggets – 0.5 unit
• Alex Caruso UNDER 4.5 Assists (-145) – 0.5 unit
• Luka Doncic OVER 29.5 Points (-110) – 0.5 unit
• Boston Celtics -12.5 (-112) vs. Washington Wizards – 0.5 unit

Oklahoma City Thunder Moneyline (+110) vs. Denver Nuggets – 0.5 unit

I have some major concerns about the Denver Nuggets this season after they let Kentavious Caldwell-Pope walk in free agency.

Sure, KCP can be replaced, but Denver is relying on Christian Braun, Peyton Watson and Julian Strawther to consistently knock down 3-point shots at the NBA level. It remains to be seen if they can do that for a whole season.

Also, Denver guard Jamal Murray is already banged up with a knee issue this season after a horrible summer with Team Canada in the Olympics. Just how much can Denver expect Nikola Jokic to make up for?

The Oklahoma City Thunder are widely expected to be the No. 1 team in the West, and even though they’ve lost Isaiah Hartenstein to an injury to open the season, they still have one of the deep cores in the NBA. 

OKC took three of the four meetings between these teams last season, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see it pull off the upset on Thursday.

Until we see Denver’s role players show that they are capable of expanded roles, I’m not sold on laying points with them against a team on their level – or better – this season. 

Alex Caruso UNDER 4.5 Assists (-145) – 0.5 unit

I can’t get behind this assist prop for Alex Caruso, even if the new Oklahoma City Thunder guard has a bigger on-ball role when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is off the court.

In his career, Caruso averaged 2.9 assists per game, never averaging more than 4.0 assists per game in a single season.

SGA and Jalen Williams are going to be the primary ball-handlers for this Thunder squad, and I don’t see Caruso filling the Josh Giddey playmaking void in this offense.

During the preseason, Caruso had 13 assists in five games, clearing 4.5 dimes on just one occasion. 

This number is way too high for the veteran in his first game with the Thunder. 

Luka Doncic OVER 29.5 Points (-110) – 0.5 unit

Dallas Mavericks star Luka Doncic, the NBA’s leading scorer last season, has a points prop of 29.5 against the San Antonio Spurs, and I think he’s massively undervalued.

Yes, the Spurs had a solid defense when Wemby was on the floor, but they ended up just 21st overall in defensive rating in the 2023-24 season. 

Now, Doncic gets a chance to attack this defense with more offense in the starting lineup now that Klay Thompson is in the fold. 

Maybe that leads to Luka passing the ball more, but let’s not forget that he’s averaged 32.4 and 33.9 points per game over the last two seasons. 

Luka took a career-high 23.6 shots per game, bumping his 3-point attempts from 8.2 to 10.6 per game from the 2022-23 season to the 2023-24 season. 

If the usage stays the same for Luka – and it should – I think he’s undervalued if this prop is anywhere below 30.5. 

Boston Celtics -12.5 (-112) vs. Washington Wizards – 0.5 unit

It’s hard to have a better start to a title defense than the one the Boston Celtics had on Tuesday night against the New York Knicks.

Boston ran New York out of the building, winning by 23 points, and it made an NBA record-tying 29 3-point shots in the game. 

Now, Boston hits the road to take on the lowly Washington Wizards, who are in a full-blown rebuild this season. 

Washington was 27th in the NBA in net rating last season, and it let Tyus Jones walk in the offseason and traded away Deni Avdija – two starters from the 2023-24 group. 

Boston is favored by 12.5 points, but it’s hard to see most teams competing with the Celtics on a night-to-night basis – never mind a bottom dweller like the Wizards. In their meetings last season, Boston won by 10, 26, four and 19 points. 

I’ll trust Jayson Tatum and company to stay hot to open the 2024-25 season. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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