Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Mavericks vs. Jazz, Luka Doncic, Dereck Lively II)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Thursday, Nov. 14.

Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic. / Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

After a wild, wild day in the NBA that saw Victor Wembanyama drop 50 points and Giannis Antetokounmpo score 59, the league slows down on Thursday with just one game between the Dallas Mavericks and Utah Jazz.

Luka Doncic and the Mavs are hoping to snap a three-game losing streak as sizable favorites against a two-win Utah team that hasn’t gotten great play from Lauri Markkanen (16.7 points per game on just 38.9 percent shooting) this season. 

This week has been a solid one in our NBA Best Bets, and after a 3-1 showing on Thursday, there isn’t a reason to force anything in this matchup. Still, there are a few bets that I’m considering for this matchup. 

Let’s dive in. 

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024-25 season record: 37-44-1 (-3.43 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1047-989-23 (+34.65 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Luka Doncic OVER 29.5 Points (-120) – 0.5 unit
• Dereck Lively II OVER 17.5 Points and Rebounds (-125) – 0.5 unit 

Luka Doncic OVER 29.5 Points (-120) – 0.5 unit

Credit to Utah, it held Doncic in check the first time these teams met this season, holding him to just 5-for-22 shooting.

However, Luka still has five games this season with 30 or more points and his volume is right in with last season when he led the NBA in scoring at 33.9 points per game. Doncic is taking the same number of shots per game (23.6) as he did last season, but he is attempting less shots from the line (8.7 to 7.0) so far in the 2024-25 campaign.

Overall, he hasn’t attempted less than 19 shots in a single game, giving him a terrific floor when it comes to this prop. 

This is a cupcake matchup against the No. 27 defense in the NBA that is allowing 119.0 points per game. 

I expect Doncic to bounce back after a lackluster showing the first time he played Utah this season. 

Dereck Lively II OVER 17.5 Points and Rebounds (-125) – 0.5 unit 

This is a pretty favorable matchup for Mavericks second-year center Dereck Lively II, as the Jazz won’t have Walker Kessler – their best rim protector – on Thursday night. 

Lively returned from a four-game absence in Tuesday’s loss to the Golden State Warriors, putting up 12 points and eight rebounds in just over 24 minutes.

Now, he gets a crack at a Utah team that he put up 14 points, four boards and three blocks against in this third game of the 2024-25 season.

With John Collins expected to start at center again, Lively should have a size advantage that could help him both on the glass and in the lob game with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. 

Lively plays a pretty even split minutes wise with Daniel Gafford, but he still has four games (out of seven) with 18 or more points and rebounds.

He’s worth a shot in this prop against a Utah team that ranks 27th in the NBA in defensive rating.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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