Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for NBA Christmas Day)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the five-game NBA slate on Christmas Day in the 2024-25 season.

Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic is an elite prop target on Christmas Day. / Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

One of the greatest gifts every Christmas season is the loaded NBA slate that comes with the holiday, and this season is no different.

NBA Christmas Day Schedule and Matchups

• 12 p.m. EST: San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks
• 2:30 p.m. EST: Minnesota Timberwolves @ Dallas Mavericks
• 5:00 p.m. EST: Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics
• 8:00 p.m. EST: Los Angeles Lakers @ Golden State Warriors
• 10:30 p.m. EST: Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns

Merry Christmas, NBA fans. 

Not only do we get another matchup between Steph Curry and LeBron James, but Wednesday’s slate also features a Western Conference Finals rematch, Victor Wembanyama’s first Christmas game, Nikola Jokic vs. Kevin Durant and the renewal of the Boston-Philly rivalry.

It doesn’t get much better than that, and as always, I’m eyeing several plays for this Christmas Day action.

Starting in the prop market, I’m looking at Luka Doncic, Jokic, Steph Curry and more while I also have a little two-team moneyline parlay to consider betting in the early slate. 

Let’s break it all down!

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024-25 season record: 88-89-4 (-3.09 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1098-1034-26 (+35.01 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Luka Doncic OVER 15.5 Rebounds and Assists (-125)
• Jayson Tatum OVER 25.5 Points (-115) – 0.5 unit
• New York Knicks-Dallas Mavericks Moneyline Parlay (-118)
• Steph Curry OVER 10.5 Rebounds and Assists (-135)
• Nikola Jokic OVER 29.5 Points (-125)

Luka Doncic OVER 15.5 Rebounds and Assists (-125)

After a heel issue cost him two games, Luka Doncic returned to the lineup on Monday and dropped 27 points, seven rebounds and seven assists – in less than 30 minutes – in a win over the Portland Trail Blazers. 

I’m eyeing his rebounds and assists prop in this game, as the Mavs star is averaging 8.5 rebounds (on 14.1 rebound chances) and 8.1 assists (on 13.6 potential assists) per game this season. 

He had eight rebounds and eight assists against Minnesota earlier this season, and since returning from a five-game absence due to a wrist injury, he’s cleared this prop six times in seven games.

Over that seven-game stretch, Doncic is averaging 10.1 rebounds and 9.0 assists per game, recording three triple-doubles in the process. He’s a must bet at this number on Christmas. 

Jayson Tatum OVER 25.5 Points (-115) – 0.5 unit

Celtics star Jayson Tatum missed Boston’s loss against the Orlando Magic on Monday, but he’s been playing great basketball as of late, scoring 26 or more points in seven of his last 10 games.

On the season, Tatum is averaging 28.8 points per game while shooting 46.3 percent from the field and 37.2 from 3 on 20.6 shot attempts per game. 

While Philly may try to slow this game down (29th in pace this season), Tatum has attempted at least 20 shots in seven straight games, giving him a terrific floor to clear this prop. I’m shocked to see the C’s star so far under his season average, so I’ll gladly take the OVER on Christmas. 

New York Knicks-Dallas Mavericks Moneyline Parlay (-118)

New York Knicks

The Spurs covered the spread for just the third time this season as a road underdog on Monday night, losing by five to the Philadelphia 76ers at Wells Fargo Center.

San Antonio is 3-5 ATS as a road dog, but it has posted an average margin of -11.3 in those games.

This is a tough road matchup against a Knicks team that is 9-4 straight up at home and 7-5-1 against the spread as a home favorite.

The Knicks keep getting healthier, as they’ve added Landry Shamet back to their roster, and Tom Thibodeau’s squad is peaking right now, ranking No. 3 in offensive rating, No. 4 in defensive rating and No. 3 in net rating over its last 10 games.

Over that same stretch, the Spurs are just 17th in the NBA in net rating.

While Wembanyama poses a major defensive concern for the Knicks without Mitchell Robinson, San Antonio has not been great on the road, ranking 23rd in the NBA in road net rating. Rather than just laying the points with the Knicks, I’m going to pair it with another moneyline…

Dallas Mavericks

Dallas has been dominant as a home favorite, going 8-5 against the spread with an average margin of +9.8 points in those 13 games. 

Minnesota’s defense was the best in the NBA last season – and it’s still a top-10 unit this season – but the offense has not gotten off the ground, ranking 23rd in the league in offensive rating.

That’s a problem against a Dallas team that has not only been red hot as of late, but it has been one of the best offenses in the NBA all season long, averaging the fifth-most points per game and ranking fifth in effective field goal percentage. 

Minnesota is just 23rd and 11th in those respective categories this season, and it is just 6-8 straight up away from Target Center despite being favored in 12 of those 14 games. 

Steph Curry OVER 10.5 Rebounds and Assists (-135) – 0.5 unit

Steph Curry could be worth a look on Wednesday as well, just maybe not in the prop you’d expect. 

Curry has been in a slump as of late, posting 0-for-7 and 2-for-13 games from the field in two of his last three showings. 

Golden State has dropped in the standings as a result, but Curry’s passing and rebounding have not taken a hit during this stretch. The two-time league MVP is averaging 5.0 rebounds and 6.6 assists per game on the season, clearing 10.5 rebounds and assists in 16 of his 23 games. 

He’s had multiple 10-assist games in the last 10 days, and he should be able to get involved as a passer even if the shot isn’t falling on Christmas. 

Nikola Jokic OVER 29.5 Points (-125) – 0.5 unit

Nikola Jokic dominated the Phoenix Suns on Monday night, and now he has a second matchup against them on Christmas. 

So, let’s go back to the well with his scoring prop in the fifth and final game of Wednesday’s slate. 

The MVP favorite at this point in the 2024-25 season, Jokic is averaging 30.9 points per game while shooting an insane 56.8 percent from the field and 51.4 percent from 3-point range. 

He’s coming off a 32-point game against these Suns in just 29:45 of playing time, and he’s picked up 30 or more points in half of his games (12 out of 24) in the 2024-25 season. 

Phoenix has really struggled to defend the paint this season, ranking 20th in the NBA in opponent points in the paint per game. That sets up well for the three-time MVP to control this game.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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