Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Nikola Jokic, Jimmy Butler and More on Sunday)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Sunday, Dec. 1.

Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic is a must bet in the prop market tonight. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Sunday’s NBA action features some terrific matchups, including the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in each conference (Boston and Cleveland and OKC and Houston) facing off.

So, it’s only natural that we place some NBA Best Bets for the action!

On Sunday, I’m eyeing a third consecutive prop night, this time with five different plays (all half unit due to the volume), including a pair of picks for Denver Nuggets big man Nikola Jokic in a favorable matchup. 

After a slow start to the season, my NBA picks were up over 6.8 units in the month of November. Now, let’s turn the page to December and keep the hot streak going into the holidays! 

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024-25 season record: 66-60-2 (+2.64 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1076-1005-24 (+40.73 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Evan Mobley to Record a Double-Double (-115) – 0.5 unit
• Miles McBride OVER 8.5 Points (-125) – 0.5 unit
• Nikola Jokic OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-130) – 0.5 unit
• Nikola Jokic OVER 20.5 Rebounds and Assists (-115) – 0.5 unit 
• Jimmy Butler OVER 27.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-125) – 0.5 unit

Evan Mobley to Record a Double-Double (-115) – 0.5 unit

Cleveland Cavaliers big man Evan Mobley has thrived against the Boston Celtics dating back to last season’s playoffs, and this could be an extra favorable matchup for him on Sunday.

Boston has listed big men Al Horford and Kristaps Porzingis both as questionable for this matchup – as the C’s are playing the front end of a back-to-back. Last season, the Celtics would split these games with Horford and KP, meaning one would play the front end and the other would play the back end of the back-to-back.

So, Boston is likely going to need Neemias Queta, Xavier Tillman Sr. and Luke Kornet to fill in some minutes down low.

Mobley already has a double-double against Boston this season (22 points, 11 rebounds on Nov. 19), and he’s picked up a double-double in five of his last six games and nine total games this season.

There’s only been one occasion where Mobley failed to score 10 points this season, and he’s averaging 18.2 points and 9.3 boards per game in the 2024-25 campaign. 

Don’t be shocked if he picks up another double-double against Boston tonight. 

Miles McBride OVER 8.5 Points (-125) – 0.5 unit

New York Knicks guard Miles McBride is averaging 10.7 points per game heading into Sunday's matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans.

I like Deuce for a few reasons in this game, starting with the blowout potential with New Orleans down Zion Williams, Brandon Ingram, Jordan Hawkins, Herb Jones and Jose Alvarado. The Knicks are 12-point favorites in this matchup. 

Now, Deuce may get a few more minutes in a blowout, but the Knicks’ sixth man actually was in the closing lineup on Friday against Charlotte, replacing a struggling Mikal Bridges. If Tom Thibodeau goes to McBride again down the stretch, it should raise his ceiling in this prop.

So far this season, McBride has nine or more points in nine of his 14 games, and he’s cleared it in two of his last three since returning from a knee injury. The one game he didn't, McBride was limited to just 15 minutes against Dallas. 

The first man off the bench for a thin Knicks squad should push double figures on Sunday. 

Nikola Jokic OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-130) – 0.5 unit

This is the first of two props for reigning league MVP Nikola Jokic against the Los Angeles Clippers on Sunday.

The last time Jokic played the Clippers, he attempted 12 shots from beyond the arc, hitting seven of them, with Ivica Zubac not exactly looking to guard him all the way out at the 3-point arc.

While I don’t expect another game of seven shots from 3, Jokic has hit multiple shots from deep in nine of his 14 games, including five straight. Overall, he’s shooting 53.4 percent from 3 on 4.1 attempts per game. If Jokic shoots five or more 3s, he’s a near lock in this prop on Sunday. 

Nikola Jokic OVER 20.5 Rebounds and Assists (-115) – 0.5 unit 

Now, onto the second Joker prop.

Yes, Jokic has failed to clear 20.5 rebounds and assists in back-to-back games (a blowout loss  to New York and blowout win over Utah), but he’s averaging 13.1 rebounds and 10.6 assists per game in the 2024-25 season.

He didn’t clear this prop in his last matchup with the Clippers, but he does have 10 games (out of 14) where he’s picked up 21 or more rebounds and assists. I can’t fade Jokic at this number given how dominant he’s been racking up triple-doubles in the 2024-25 season. 

Jimmy Butler OVER 27.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-125) – 0.5 unit

I am shocked to see Miami Heat star Jimmy Butler all the way down at 27.5 points, rebounds and assists on Sunday.

A back injury knocked Butler out of a recent win over Charlotte (he had just 13 PRA in that game), but he’s been on fire when it comes this prop as of late: 

• vs. Philly: 30 points, 10 rebounds, 5 assists – 45 PRA
• vs. Dallas: 33 points, 9 rebounds, 6 assists – 48 PRA
• vs. Milwaukee: 23 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists – 32 PRA
• vs. Toronto: 26 points, 2 rebounds, 6 assists – 34 PRA

Since he’s cleared this prop in four of his last five games – and done it easily – I’m surprised to see Butler all the way down at 27.5 against a Toronto team that ranks 22nd in the NBA in defensive rating and 17th in opponent assists per game.

As long as he’s healthy, Butler could push this number on points alone on Sunday.

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.