Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Suns-Pacers, Josh Hart, Nuggets-Blazers)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the 13-game NBA slate on Thursday, Dec. 19.

The Phoenix Suns are a great bet with Kevin Durant in the lineup this season. / Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images

The NBA Cup has come to a close, and we’re fresh off of a complete off day for the entire NBA on Wednesday.

So, naturally, there are 13 games to bet on Thursday night after getting what may have been a much-needed reset on Wednesday. 

It’s been a tough week for yours truly in these NBA Best Bets, as we went just 1-for-4 during the NBA Cup Championship to fall just under positive in the units department on the season. There are always ebbs and flows, but hopefully a day off on Wednesday helps bring some winners tonight. 

There are some great matchups on Thursday, including the first New York Knicks-Minnesota Timberwolves game of the regular season since the two teams made the blockbuster Karl-Anthony Towns trade prior to the start of training camp. 

In addition to that, the Indiana Pacers take on the Phoenix Suns and the Golden State Warriors renew a little playoff rivalry with the Memphis Grizzlies.

With 26 teams in action, there are plenty of props to tackle in this slate, and I have a few that help make up tonight’s best bets.

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024-25 season record: 83-84-3 (-2.27 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1093-1029-25 (+35.82 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Phoenix Suns-Denver Nuggets Moneyline Parlay (-130)
• Josh Hart OVER 11.5 Rebounds and Assists (-130) – 0.5 unit
• Tyrese Haliburton UNDER 18.5 Points (-115) – 0.5 unit

Phoenix Suns-Denver Nuggets Moneyline Parlay (-130)

Phoenix Suns

There are plenty of reasons to bet on the Suns tonight, starting with their record at home.

Phoenix is 9-4 straight up at home this season, but I am worried about it covering the spread since it's gone just 3-7 against the spread as a home favorite. So, that’s why I’m playing a moneyline parlay on Thursday. 

Indiana – Phoenix’s opponent tonight – has been downright awful on the road, going 4-11 straight up and 3-5 against the spread as a road underdog. The other key for the Suns is the presence of Kevin Durant, who will play tonight.

Phoenix is 13-2 with KD in the lineup in the 2024-25 season. 

Denver Nuggets

Denver is an 8.5-point road favorite on Thursday against a Portland Trail Blazers team that has dropped six games in a row and is now under .500 at home on the season. 

Denver, on the other hand, has won three in a row.

The Nuggets have been far from dominant to open this season, but I’d be shocked to see them lose this game against a Portland team that now ranks 28th in offensive rating, 26th in defensive rating and 27th in net rating. 

Denver has also won seven straight matchups against the Blazers, who lost by 43 points to a five-win Utah Jazz team earlier this month. Forgetting the points, Denver is the bet to make in this matchup. 

Josh Hart OVER 11.5 Rebounds and Assists (-130) – 0.5 unit

New York Knicks wing Josh Hart’s rebounding numbers have been down over the last few games, but I’m going to bet on him here in what may be a more defensive game (Minnesota is fourth in the NBA in defensive rating).

Hart is still averaging 8.2 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game, putting up at least 12 rebounds and assists in 17 of his 26 games this season. 

He’s averaging 14.4 rebounds chances and 9.2 potential assists per game, giving him a great floor when it comes to clearing this prop. 

Tyrese Haliburton UNDER 18.5 Points (-115) – 0.5 unit

I don’t want to say fade Tyrese Haliburton at all costs on the road, but it’s starting to look like that’s the move.

So far this season, the Indiana Pacers guard has been dreadful away from Gainbridge Fieldhouse, and his numbers are drastically different when it comes to home and road splits: 

Points Per Game

• Home: 21.4
• Road: 15.5

Rebounds Per Game

• Home: 3.4
• Road: 3.3

Assists Per Game

• Home: 9.0
• Road: 8.2

Field Goal Percentage

• Home: 47.3%
• Road: 38.5%

3-Point Percentage

• Home: 41.8%
• Road: 29.0%

So, when on the road, Haliburton is shooting 12.8 percent worse from 3, 8.8 percent worse from the field and averaging 5.9 fewer points per game. 

I can’t trust him in this matchup – especially with how poorly he’s shot the ball – against a Phoenix team that has been dominant at home in the 2024-25 season. 

Bonus Picks!

Sacramento Kings -4.5 vs. Los Angeles Lakers

I didn’t want to include picks for the Los Angeles Lakers-Sacramento Kings in my official best bets just yet – as LeBron James, Domantas Sabonis and Keegan Murray are questionable for this matchup.

However, If Sabonis and Murray play, I love the Kings in this spot. 

The Lakers are just 5-9 straight up on the road this season and a dreadful 2-6 against the spread as road underdogs. 

After a fast start, they now rank in the bottom 10 in the NBA in net rating while the Kings are 11th. So why is Sacramento’s overall record so bad?

Well, the Kings have been awful in clutch games this season, going 6-10 when the game is within five points in the final five minutes. While that’s not a great sign for them covering a short spread, I don’t think they’ll be that close with Los Angeles anyway.

On the road this season, the Lakers rank just 26th in net rating (-9.2) while the Kings are +4.7 in their net rating at home.

Domantas Sabonis Triple-Double

This prop is contingent on Sabonis playing, but he’s set at +750 to record a triple-double tonight. Why is that notable? Well, he’s been a triple-double machine against Los Angeles.

Sabonis has dominated the Lakers in recent seasons, putting up a triple-double in each of his last three meetings with them.

After leading the NBA in triple-doubles last season, Sabonis only has four this season. Of course, one of them was against the Lakers when he dropped 29 points, 12 rebounds and 10 assists in Sacramento’s second game of the season.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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