NBA MVP Odds: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Overtakes Nikola Jokic as Favorite

Breaking down the latest NBA MVP odds with Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leading the way.

Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the new NBA MVP favorite. / Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

There isn’t a hotter team in the NBA than the Oklahoma City Thunder, and it’s caused a major shift in the NBA MVP odds this season.

OKC has won 15 games in a row to open up a seven-game lead in the Western Conference at 30-5, and guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been the driving force with Chet Holmgren and Alex Caruso both missing time. 

SGA is averaging 33.1 points, 5.7 rebounds and 5.6 assists per game over this 15-game stretch, shooting 54.9 percent from the field and 38.2 percent from beyond the arc. 

Oddsmakers have taken notice, pushing Gilgeous-Alexander ahead of three-time league MVP Nikola Jokic in the latest odds. The Joker is still having an unreal season (31.5 points, 13.0 rebounds and 9.7 assists per game), but the Nuggets are the No. 4 seed in the West – 9.5 games back of the Thunder.

Here’s a full look at the NBA MVP odds at this point in the season. 

NBA MVP Odds for 2024-25 Season

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: -145
• Nikola Jokic: +130
• Giannis Antetokounmpo: +1200
• Jayson Tatum: +2000
• Anthony Edwards: +6000
• Victor Wembanyama: +7500
• Karl-Anthony Towns: +10000
• Jalen Brunson: +10000
• Kevin Durant: +15000
• Donovan Mitchell: +15000

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Now Odds On Favorite to Win NBA MVP

Gilgeous-Alexander isn’t only a favorite – he’s the odds on favorite – to win the MVP award.

At -145, Gilgeous-Alexander has an implied probability of 59.18 percent to earn his first league MVP. SGA was the runner up last season when the Thunder earned the No. 1 seed in the West, and they appear to be well on their way to repeating that feat this season.

What’s most impressive is that Gilgeous-Alexander has done this without Holmgren for a major chunk of the season, and the Thunder still have the No. 1 defensive rating and net rating in the 2024-25 campaign. 

Overall, SGA is averaging 31.3 points, 5.6 rebounds and 6.1 assists per game. While he won’t put up the counting numbers Jokic does (outside of points per game), SGA may run away with this award if the Thunder run away with the No. 1 seed. 

Luka Doncic Injury Knocks Him Out of MVP Race

Luka Doncic was a top-three finisher in the MVP race last season, but a calf injury on Christmas Day has all but ended his MVP chase.

Doncic has already missed 14 games this season, and the NBA’s 65-game threshold for awards puts Doncic in a near impossible position to win MVP. Luka would need to only miss three more games the rest of this season, but he is highly unlikely to return from his calf ailment before then.

If that’s the case, Doncic will officially be out for MVP – and oddsmakers have already taken him off the board at this point in the campaign. 

Donovan Mitchell MVP Odds Too Low? 

While the Thunder have won 15 games in a row, they still don’t have the best record in the NBA. 

That belongs to the Cleveland Cavaliers (31-4), who hold the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference.

Being the best player on the NBA’s best team usually carries some weight for the MVP, but Cavs guard Donovan Mitchell is just +15000 to win the award this season. While the team's success is there, Mitchell may just not have the numbers to truly compete with Jokic, SGA, Giannis and others in this market.

So far this season, Mitchell is averaging 23.3 points, 4.4 rebounds and 4.6 assists per game while shooting 45.7 percent from the field and 41.3 percent from 3. Those are All-Star numbers, but they pale in comparison to SGA through the first few months of the campaign.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.