NBA MVP Odds: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's Stock Soaring After 54-Point Performance

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is now heavily favored to win the NBA's MVP award this season.

Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is now -500 to win MVP this season. / Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

Has Oklahoma City Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander already locked up the NBA’s MVP award?

After turning in a career-high 54-point game in OKC’s win over the Utah Jazz on Wednesday, SGA has moved to -500 at DraftKings Sportsbook to win the league’s MVP.

The runner-up for MVP last season, SGA has a sizable lead over Nikola Jokic (+380) in this market. At DraftKings, there is no other player shorter than +10000 to win MVP. Giannis Antetokounmpo (+10000) and Jayson Tatum (+15000) are the other two extreme longshot contenders right now. 

Latest Odds to Win NBA MVP in 2024-25 Season

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: -500
• Nikola Jokic: +380
• Giannis Antetokounmpo: +10000
• Jayson Tatum: +15000
• Victor Wembanyama: +20000
• Donovan Mitchell: +30000
• Karl-Anthony Towns: +50000
• Domantas Sabonis: +50000
• Jalen Brunson: +50000
• Anthony Edwards: +50000

To open the 2024-25 season, Gilgeous-Alexander was set at +600 to win the league’s MVP award while Jokic was +350. 

Anyone holding an SGA +600 ticket has to be feeling great about the chances of that cashing. At -500, Gilgeous-Alexander has an implied probability of 83.3 percent to win MVP this season. 

SGA Running Away with 2024-25 NBA MVP

Gilgeous-Alexander’s case couldn’t be much stronger at this point in the season. Not only is he averaging 32.0 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 6.1 assists per game while shooting 53.0 percent from the field, but the Thunder star has led his team to the best record in the Western Conference — and the NBA — through 43 games at 36-7.

Last season, SGA didn’t win the MVP as the No. 1 seed in the West, but the Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves were right behind them in the standings.

This season — even with Chet Holmgren only playing in 10 games so far — OKC has a seven-game cushion on the No. 2 seed Houston Rockets on Jan. 23.

It’s hard to argue that the Thunder aren’t one of the top two — maybe three — contenders to win the title this season, and SGA is the driving force.

The star guard has been even better as of late, averaging an insane 35.2 points per game over his last 15 games. Gilgeous-Alexander is also shooting 56.9 percent from the field over that stretch. If the Thunder keep winning at this pace, SGA should remain the favorite in this market. 

Does Nikola Jokic Have an Argument for MVP? 

The Nuggets have been playing well as of late, ranking No. 2 in the NBA in net rating over their last 10 games, but Jokic’s MVP case has taken a hit since he was favored after the initial ESPN straw poll earlier this season. 

Why? 

Well, Denver holds the No. 4 seed in the West and is well behind the Thunder in the standings.

Jokic is still putting up gaudy numbers, averaging 30.1 points, 13.2 rebounds, and 9.9 assists per game while shooting 56.3 percent from the field and 47.5 percent from 3. In addition to that, his on/off splits remain insane. The Nuggets are +13.1 points per 100 possessions when Jokic is on the floor and -9.1 points per 100 possessions when he’s off (a net rating of +22.2).  

He’s still the best player in the NBA, but does that get him MVP? I’m not sold on it this season. 

It’s hard to justify giving Jokic the MVP if he finishes well behind OKC in the standings and outside the top three in the West. There also is the potential for voter fatigue — it happens — with Jokic taking home three of the league’s last four MVPs.

While he’s not a bad bet at +380, this market has been shifting heavily towards SGA for more than the last month.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.