NBA Rookie of the Year Odds: Alexandre Sarr Jumps Zach Edey as Favorite

Breaking down the latest odds to win the NBA's Rookie of the Year award at the midway point of the season.
Washington Wizards forward Alexandre Sarr is the favorite to win the NBA's Rookie of the Year award.
Washington Wizards forward Alexandre Sarr is the favorite to win the NBA's Rookie of the Year award. / Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

The NBA Rookie of the Year race has been a tricky one to figure out in the 2024-25 campaign, as no rookie has really played a step above the rest.

On one hand, this was expected in a draft that didn’t feature a clear No. 1 pick. On the other hand, there are a lot of rookies in key roles (Zach Edey, Alex Sarr, Stephon Castle, Yves Missi, Jaylen Wells, Ryan Dunn, Zaccharie Risacher) that have shown promise, but not enough to truly make a claim on this award.

Edey opened the season as the favorite to win the NBA’s Rookie of the Year, but he’s since fallen to second in the odds. Sarr, the No. 2 overall pick, has taken over the top spot while playing pretty heavy minutes for a terrible Washington Wizards team.

Here’s a breakdown of the latest odds, including two candidates to watch as the NBA nears the midway point of the 2024-25 regular season. 

NBA Rookie of the Year Odds in 2024-25 Season

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

  • Alexandre Sarr: +160 
  • Zach Edey: +320
  • Jaylen Wells: +600
  • Yves Missi: +700
  • Stephon Castle: +900
  • Zaccharie Risacher: +3000
  • Tristan da Silva: +3000
  • Dalton Knecht: +5000
  • Carlton Carrington: +7500
  • Ryan Dunn: +10000

Alexandre Sarr Favored to Win Rookie of the Year

Sarr is favored to win the Rookie of the Year, but he has an implied probability of just 38.46 percent to win the award, a sign that this market is wide open.

Through 34 games, Sarr is averaging 11.7 points, 6.6 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.6 blocks per game while shooting just 40.6 percent from the field and 32.5 percent from 3. Those numbers are fine, but on a team that has just six wins, Sarr hasn’t exactly stood out. 

Sarr has a clear path to playing time and touches, which is likely a big reason why he’s favored in this market. He also hasn’t missed as much time due to injury as Edey has this season. Edey has moments where he looks dominant, but the Grizzlies big man is averaging just 9.9 points and 7.5 rebounds per game overall. 

Personally, I wouldn’t bet on either big man at their current price given how close this race is. To say that Sarr is leaps and bounds above players like Wells, Castle, Missi, da Silva, Risacher and Carrington isn’t true. 

Can Stephon Castle Make Run at Rookie of the Year?

If you’re looking for a player with opportunity to win this award, look no further than Castle at +900. 

The San Antonio Spurs rookie has started 20 of the 37 games that he’s appeared in this season, averaging 11.0 points, 2.4 rebounds and 3.6 assists in 24.9 minutes per game. He’s far from the No. 1 option, but Castle has put up solid numbers – and has been tasked with some key matchups defensively this season.

Now, Castle has not shot the ball well at all (39.3 percent from the field, 25.4 percent from 3), but it hasn’t knocked him out of the rotation. If he can improve on those numbers just a little, he should see a small boost scoring the ball. It’s a big ask for a rookie whose biggest question was his shooting entering the draft, but he’s getting the playing time where it’s possible he starts to come around. 

In such a wide open market, I like Castle’s involvement on a play-in level team (not too good to bench him for veterans for a playoff push) as a potential dark horse for this award.


Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.


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Peter Dewey
PETER DEWEY

Peter is a senior editor for Sports Illustrated Betting. He has worked as a writer and editor for BetSided, NBC Sports, the Connecticut Sun and the Meriden Record-Journal covering the NBA, WNBA, NFL, MLB, and more. A New York City resident, he is a hoops fanatic with a soft spot for his New York Knicks.