NBA Southwest Division Odds for 2024-25 Season (Plenty of New Faces in Crowded Race)

Breaking down the odds to win the NBA's Southwest Division in the 2024-25 season.

Dallas Mavericks guard Kyrie Irving (11) celebrates with Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic. / Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

The Southwest Division didn't have a single team finish in the top four of the Western Conference last season, but the Dallas Mavericks found their way to the NBA Finals as the No. 5 seed. 

With the Memphis Grizzlies taking a massive step back due to Ja Morant’s suspension and injuries to several key players last season, the Southwest became a two-team race between Dallas and New Orleans.

Can Memphis, who won 50-plus games in back-to-back seasons before last season, bounce back and win this division?

Oddsmakers have the Grizzlies finish ahead of New Orleans, but the Houston Rockets (win total of 43.5 games) are also expected to be in the mix. 

Then, there’s the Victor Wembanyama component. While the San Antonio Spurs aren’t expected to be a playoff team, can last year’s No. 1 overall pick take such a major leap around an improved core that the Spurs make some noise in the West? 

The Southwest doesn’t have a single tanking team – for now – which should make this one of the more exciting division markets in the NBA.

Southwest Division Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Dallas Mavericks: +115
• Memphis Grizzlies: +260
• New Orleans Pelicans: +380
• Houston Rockets: +800
• San Antonio Spurs: +2800

Based on these odds, Dallas has an implied probability of 46.51 percent to repeat as the division champion in the 2024-25 season. That may be a little high if Memphis gets back to what it did two seasons ago – or if the Pelicans’ Dejounte Murray move ends up paying off. 

Dallas Mavericks

If the Mavericks stay healthy, they should be the best team in this division after reaching the Finals a season ago.

However, the fit of Klay Thompson will be interesting to watch, as he’s replacing the Mavs’ best perimeter defender from last season (Derrick Jones Jr.) in the starting lineup. 

Dallas may end up with the best offense in the NBA, but will it be able to keep up on defense – where it really turned things around in the second half of last season? 

Memphis Grizzlies

Memphis has an intriguing core of Morant, Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Zach Edey, but should we expect the Grizz to just assume a position atop the West?

I’m not sold on that, especially since Memphis has lost some key role players from those 50-win teams (Tyus Jones, Steven Adams) and Jackson Jr. is already opening the season a little banged up. 

New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans are betting big on a smaller lineup of Zion Wiliamson, Brandon Ingram, Dejounte Murray, CJ McCollum and Herb Jones, but will it pay off?

New Orleans has the potential to be an elite offense – like Dallas – but there are a ton of questions on the defensive end entering the 2024-25 season. 

Houston Rockets

Houston finished with a .500 record last season and returns a lot of key pieces from a young core, but it doesn’t feel like a squad that made a move to truly get better.

Maybe it’ll be able to trim the fat of which young players are no longer part of the plan, but I don’t see the Rockets as much more than a play-in contender. 

San Antonio Spurs

Adding veterans like Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes should raise the floor for the Spurs, but the ceiling all depends on just how big of a step Wemby takes in his second NBA season. 

The former No. 1 overall pick finished the 2023-24 season averaging 23.7 points, 12.0 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 1.0 steal and 4.4 blocks per game in March and April. If he’s anywhere near those numbers – or better – for the entire 2024-25 season, the Spurs could be in the mix for a play-in spot but still are a long shot in the division.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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