Nevada vs. Boise State Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 11

Reed Wallach | Nov 5, 2024

Nov 1, 2024; Boise, Idaho, USA; Boise State Broncos running back Ashton Jeanty (2) runs for a score during the second half against the San Diego State Aztecs at Albertsons Stadium. Boise State defeats San Diego State 56-24. Mandatory Credit: Brian Losness-Imagn Images / Brian Losness-Imagn Images

Boise State’s path to the College Football Playoff continues to crystalize. 

After a blowout win last Friday night at home, Boise State remains at home to face Nevada in Week 11 action. The Broncos are a massive favorite yet again against a Nevada team that has shown promise under first-year head coach Jeff Choate but is starting to run out of steam as the season drags on. 

Can Ashton Jeanty and the Broncos continue to rack up style points en route to another victory? 

Here’s how we see it. 

Nevada vs. Boise State Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Nevada: +24.5 (-115)
• Boise State: -24.5 (-105)

Moneyline

• Nevada: +1100
• Boise State: -2500

Total: 61.5 (Over -114/Under -106)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Nevada vs. Boise State State How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, November 9th
• Game Time: 8:00 PM EST
• Venue: Albertsons Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): FOX
• Nevada Record: 3-7
• Boise State Record: 7-1

Nevada vs. Boise State State Key Players to Watch

Nevada

Brendon Lewis: Lewis returned from a one-game absence and balled out for the Wolf Pack. Despite the loss to Colorado State, Lewis compiled more than 350 total yards with three touchdowns. He’ll be up against it facing an incredibly disruptive Boise State defensive line that has the second most sacks in the country but is vulnerable on the back end, ranking outside the top 100 in both explosive pass and rush rate. 

Boise State

Ashton Jeanty: The Heisman Trophy candidate continues to be the most dominant running back in the country, leading the nation in rushing yards, but has actually slowed down over the last two weeks. Jeanty is averaging about four yards per carry the last two weeks but has still compiled more than 120 yards in each. Can he feast on a vulnerable Nevada defense? 

Nevada vs. Boise State Prediction and Pick

In a projected blowout, I’m going to skew towards the total in this one that I believe is a touch too high. 

The Broncos offense is off a monster offensive output, pouring 52 points on a fast-paced San Diego State team. 

However, Nevada is the opposite, playing at the fifth slowest tempo in the country this season. The Wolf Pack have looked quite formidable on offense this season, 45th in EPA/Play and 34th in success rate. If the team is able to maintain possession and keep the Boise State offense on the sideline, this game can quickly turn into a low-scoring affair. 

The total in Boise State’s matchup against San Diego State closed 55.5 but this total is nearly a touchdown higher due to the big scoreline, I believe the circumstances are far different in this matchup. 

While Nevada may be ripe for the taking on the ground from Jeanty, the secondary has been far improved, ranking 55th in EPA/Pass and 33rd in explosive pass rate. 

I’ll side with a lower-scoring, and possibly more competitive affair than last week for the Broncos, and the game to go under this lofty total. 

PICK: UNDER 61.5

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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