New England Patriots vs. New York Jets Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 3

Jennifer Piacenti | Sep 18, 2024

New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers (8) throws against the Tennessee Titans during the first quarter at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn., Sunday, Sept. 15, 2024. / Andrew Nelles / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The New York Jets will host the New England Patriots for Thursday Night Football. The divisional rivals both enter this contest with a 1-1 record.

The Jets offense looked better in Week 2, defeating the Titans 24-17 and covering the spread. Breece Hall and Garrett WIlson remain Aaron Rodgers top targets with Allen Lazard often getting the nod in the red zone.

Veteran Jacoby Brissett has been effective in the run-first Patriots offense, and with no clear alpha receiver for New England, the run game should remain front and center vs. the Jets on Thursday.

The Jets have allowed an average of 24.5 points per game while the Patriots allowed just 16.5.

Patriots vs. Jets Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

Patriots +6
Jets -6

Moneyline

Patriots +210
Jets -258

Total

37.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Jets vs. 49ers How to Watch

Date: Thursday September 19
Game Time:8:15 EST
Venue: MetLife
How to Watch (TV): Amazon Prime
Patriots Record: 1-1
Jets Record: 1-1

Patriots vs. Jets Betting Trends

The under has hit in the last four matchups between these two teams, dating back to 2022
New England has covered in six of the last seven matchups dating back to 2021
New England has covered the spread in both games this season
The over has hit in both Jets games this season

Patriots vs. Jets Injury Reports

Patriots Injury Report

LB Ja'Whaun Bentley - out
LT Vederian Lowe - questionable

Jets Injury Report

LB Jermaine Johnson - out
CB DJ Reed- questionable
LB CJ Mosely - questionable

Patriots vs. Jets Key Players to Watch

Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson

Stevenson has operated as the bell-cow for New England, logging 20+ carries for the second consecutive week in this run-heavy offense. New England’s 75 rushing attempts rank third in the NFL.

The Jets have been susceptible on the ground this year, allowing an average of 115 yards per contest and 4.49 yards per carry. They have also allowed the sixth-most receiving yards and an 83.3% catch-rate to opposing runners this year. Stevenson has eight targets this season, but Antonio Gibson, the better pass-catcher, could also be in for a good game should the Patriots be trailing in this one.

Jets WR Garrett WIlson

We are still waiting for that breakout game we all expected from Garrett WIlson. WIlson led the team in targets and receiving yards in Week 2, and he leads the team in air yards for the season, too. He’s averaged 58.5 receiving yards and five catches across his first two games. Wilson saw three targets inside the 20, in Week 2, but has yet to score a TD this season.

Wilson could have a breakout game vs. a Patriots defense that just allowed 296 yards to Seahawks receivers.

Patriots vs. Jets Prediction and Pick

The Jets should be able to find success vs. the Patriots who just allowed Geno Smith to pass for 327 yards and a touchdown on Sunday. Breece Hall will be a weapon in the receiving game even if he can’t get going on the ground. The Patriots are not an easy matchup for runners, allowing an average of just 46.5 rushing yards to running backs this season. However, they have allowed two rushing touchdowns, ten catches, 60 receiving yards and an 83.3% catch rate to running backs. Breece Hall should be an effective weapon while Garrett WIlson and Allen Lazard should find success vs. the Patriots secondary.

On the other side, the Jets have underperformed expectations defensively, while the Patriots have been better than expected on offense with Jacoby Brissett. Expect Stevenson and Gibson to run on this Jets defense.

37.5 is a very low bar. Jets games have gone over 100% of the time this season and Patriots games have gone over 50%. Despite the historical trend of the under between these two teams, I’m looking at an over on Thursday Night. Rodgers should be starting to find a groove, and the Patriots offense has a pathway to success, too. I don’t want to pick either team ATS, I just want to see a lot of points. Let’s have some fun and root for the over.

Pick: Over 37.5