New Mexico vs. San Diego State Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 11

Reed Wallach | Nov 5, 2024

Sep 14, 2024; Auburn, Alabama, USA; New Mexico Lobos quarterback Devon Dampier (4) drops back to pass during the first quarter against the Auburn Tigers at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Reed-Imagn Images / John Reed-Imagn Images

New Mexico and San Diego State meet on Friday night in Mountain West action that features the highest total on the Week 11 card. 

The Lobos have been an over machine in the first season under head coach Bronco Mendenhall due to its dynamic offense, but also porous defense. The team travels to San Diego to face the Aztecs, who have been in high scoring affairs under first year head coach Sean Lewis and his fast tempo offense. 

With that in mind, we have an incredibly high total. Will the game go over? 

Here’s our betting preview. 

New Mexico vs. San Diego State Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• New Mexico: +3.5 (-122)
• San Diego State: -3.5 (+100)

Moneyline

• New Mexico: +126
• San Diego State: -150

Total: 67.5 (Over -114/Under -106)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

New Mexico vs. San Diego State How to Watch

• Date: Friday, November 8
• Game Time: 10:30 PM EST
• Venue: Snapdragon Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): Fox Sports 1
• New Mexico Record: 3-6
• San Diego State Record: 3-5

New Mexico vs. San Diego State Key Players to Watch

New Mexico

Devon Dampier: The Lobos sophomore quarterback has been electric at times this season, compiling nearly 3,000 total yards in nine games. However, he has been plagued by turnovers, 12 interceptions and a handful of fumbles to his 23 total touchdowns. 

San Diego State

Danny O’Neil: The freshman has had some bright flashes this season in Lewis’ exotic scheme. He has passed for 1,395 yards in seven games with eight touchdowns and four interceptions, but the SDSU offensive line hasn’t done him many favors. O’Neil has been sacked 16 times on the year, but will face a poor New Mexico defense that can give him time to showcase his arm talent.  

New Mexico vs. San Diego State Prediction and Pick

This is the highest total of the week, and rightfully so. 

Both teams play fast and hunt explosive plays on offense while neither defense has much ability of stopping it. 

San Diego State has shown some upside in the passing game with O’Neil coming on strong as the season has progressed, engineering an offense that is 33rd in explosive pass rate. Further, the team has veteran running back Marquez Cooper engineering the 11th most explosive run game. 

Against a New Mexico defense that is allowing more than seven yards per play and more than 40 points per game, I expect the SDSU offense will generate scoring chances. 

Meanwhile, New Mexico has been able to score all season long, totaling at least 45 points in four of the last five games. The offense grades out 25th in EPA/Play and is averaging the third most yards per carry. 

The San Diego State defensive line can get into the backfield, but is vulnerable to big plays, 91st in EPA/Play. 

This is an incredibly high total, and the end of the game can make this a tricky number to get too, so instead I’m going to angle for the first half over as each team should hit the ground running against an out-matched defense. 

PICK: First Half OVER 32.5

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33

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