NFL Best Bets for Week 11 (Predictions for Raiders vs. Dolphins, Texans vs. Cowboys)

The Sports Illustrated Betting team shares their favorite bets on the board for Week 11 of the 2024 NFL season.

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Fresh off a perfect week where two favorites -- the Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Chargers -- covered in our best bets, the SI Betting team is back with a few more plays for Week 11.

One of these plays ends up leaking into Monday's action, as Peter Dewey is eyeing a total in the Dallas Cowboys-Houston Texans matchup.

On Sunday, NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan is trusting a major favorite against one of the worst teams in the NFL.

Can we put together another 2-for-2 week? Here's a breakdown of Week 11's best bets.

NFL Week 11 Best Bets

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Houston Texans-Dallas Cowboys UNDER 42 (-108) – Peter Dewey
• Miami Dolphins -7 (-110) vs. Las Vegas Raiders – Iain MacMillan

Houston Texans-Dallas Cowboys UNDER 42 (-108) – Peter Dewey

Do we really think Cooper Rush is going to turn things around for Dallas after completing just 13 of his 23 passes for 45 yards in Week 11?

Jerry Jones expressed confidence in the backup quarterback this week, but I’m far from sold against a tough Houston defense. 

Houston has been the best UNDER team in the NFL this season, and it ranks sixth in the NFL in EPA/Play on that side of the ball.

While The Texans may be able to move the ball against a Dallas defense that has given up the fifth most points in the NFL, Stroud has not looked as good as he did as a rookie this season. 

Nico Collins’ return may boost the Houston offense, but will it do enough to clear 42 combined points?

Remember, Dallas scored just six points against the Eagles (15th in defensive EPA/Play) in Week 10 and Rush was set up by a turnover inside the five yard-line at one point in the game. 

I don’t think that we can trust this Dallas offense to score enough to go OVER this total, and Houston may be content with just running the ball – Dallas allows 4.7 yards per carry – and chewing clock if it goes up early. 

Miami Dolphins -7 (-110) vs. Las Vegas Raiders – Iain MacMillan

I don’t care that the Raiders are coming off a BYE and the Dolphins are off a short week. The Las Vegas offense is downright painful to watch, ranking dead last in the NFL in EPA per play. I also firmly believe Antonio Pierce is the worst head coach in the NFL today. He’s made poor decisions in every area including gameplan, scheme, personnel, and in-game decisions.

There’s no denying the Dolphins haven’t had the best season, but their offense alone is leagues above the Raiders. They have playmakers all over the field and they show creativity, speed, and explosiveness that the Raiders can only dream of.

I think Miami wins a second straight game by steamrolling the Raiders on Sunday.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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