NFL Best Bets for Week 16 (Predictions for Eagles vs. Commanders, Giants vs. Falcons)

The Sports Illustrated Betting team shares their favorite bets on the board for Week 16 of the 2024 NFL season.

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts has led his team to a 6-1 ATS record on the road. / Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

Don't let the SI Betting team get hot when it comes to our NFL best bets!

With just three weeks left in the regular season, Iain MacMillan and Peter Dewey are coming off a perfect 2-0 week where they called against the spread wins for the New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings.

This comes on the heels of MacMillan nailing an alternate spread pick in Week 15!

With three games in Week 16 kicking off before Sunday, the NFL is going to be on the forefront of just about everyone's mind in the sports world heading into the Christmas holiday.

This week, Dewey is eyeing a total in a matchup that could seal the playoff fate of on NFC South team, while MacMillan is looking at a road favorite that has dominated against the spread (6-1) when away from home this season.

Here's a complete breakdown of our top plays for Week 16.

NFL Week 16 Best Bets

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• New York Giants vs. Atlanta Falcons UNDER 42 (-112) – Peter Dewey
• Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 (-110) vs. Washington Commanders - Iain MacMillan

New York Giants vs. Atlanta Falcons UNDER 42 (-112) – Peter Dewey

The Michael Penix Jr. era will get underway in Atlanta, as Kirk Cousins has been benched after throwing nine picks and just one score in the last five games. 

Atlanta has scored just 72 points over its last five games, losing four of them and scoring more than 20 points just once over that stretch. Maybe Penix changes this offense, but this is a tough spot for a rookie quarterback with Atlanta likely needing to win out to secure a playoff spot in the NFC – and even that may not be enough. 

Not only that, but the Falcons are 2-4 against the spread as home favorites, and now they’re being asked to cover more than a touchdown on Sunday.

While that’s certainly possible against this terrible New York squad, it’s not my favorite bet in this game.

Instead, I’m looking to the UNDER. 

New York has scored seven, 20, 11 and 14 points in the four games it has played since releasing Daniel Jones, losing three of them by a touchdown or more. 

No matter who gets the start at quarterback, New York is far and away the inferior team in this matchup, ranking dead last in the NFL in points scored and 31st in yards per play. 

While the Falcons haven’t inspired a ton of confidence offensively, they did hold another bad offense – the Las Vegas Raiders – to just nine points in Week 15. Both of these teams are hitting the UNDER at a high rate (nine of their 14 games this season), so I expect another low-scoring affair on Sunday. 

Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 (-110) vs. Washington Commanders - Iain MacMillan

I have plenty of concerns with the Washington Commanders as we enter the final stretch of the regular season. Their offense was a top 5 unit in the NFL to start the season but since Week 11, they’ve ranked 13th in EPA per play and 10th in success rate.

There are a number of things you could point to in order to blame the regression including a rookie quarterback coming back down to earth and an offensive coordinator in Kliff Kingsbury whose offenses have historically struggled late in seasons. 

Whatever the case may be, a game against one of the best defenses in the NFL isn’t the time for an offense to turn things around.

When these two teams played earlier in the season, the Eagles outgained them by two more yards per play. I expect this week’s final score to be even more lopsided than the first time they met.

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More NFL Week 16 Betting Storiess

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