NFL Betting Trends: Over/Under Trend Heavily Favors One Side Through Preseason Week 1

Breaking down a crazy over/under trend through the first week of the NFL preseason.

New York Giants linebacker Kayvon Thibodeaux. / Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

If you bet the UNDER in NFL preseason games in Week 1... you would have cleaned up based on the final scores across the slate.

The UNDER has hit in 12 of the first 17 games this preseason (counting the Hall of Fame Game), and there were several games that were no sweat to the UNDER over the past week.

2024 NFL Preseason betting update

Underdogs 11-6 ATS

UNDERs 12-5

— John Ewing (@johnewing) August 11, 2024

In total, there were 11 games in Week 1 that finished with fewer than 35 points, and there were several with less than 20 combined points, including both Thursday night matchups (Detroit vs. New York and New England vs. Carolina).

There's only one Thursday night matchup in Week 2, but it could be a game to take the UNDER in with the Philadelphia Eagles playing on slightly shorter rest than normal in that matchup.

Preseason trends are hard to put a lot of stock in since it's possible starters will play more -- or less -- depending upon the team over the next few matchups. However, there is a key preseason trend to be aware of with the total as well.

Entering this season,  closing totals of 37 or higher have gone UNDER at a 56.4% clip (527-407) since 2010. On the other hand, totals that close lower than 37 have gone OVER at a rate of 58.9% (279-195).

Based on the data from Week 1, riding the UNDER on some of the higher totals isn't a terrible strategy to consider for Week 2.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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