NFL Cheat Sheet Week 6 (Best Spread, Total, Underdog, Teaser, and Player Prop)

Iain MacMillan | 2 Hours Ago

Oct 6, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) runs onto the field before the game against the Buffalo Bills at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

It feels like just yesterday we were gearing up for the start of the NFL season and now here we are, in the blink of an eye, getting ready to watch Week 6 of the 2024 campaign.

If you're looking for a few bets to place this weekend but don't want to spend time diving into the research for all 14 games, you've come to the right place. In my weekly betting cheat sheet, I break down my favorite bet for all different types of wagers, including spread, total, teaser, and more.

Let's dive into my best bets for Week 6.

NFL Week 6 Best Bets

All odds listed via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Spread Bet: Texans -7 vs. Patriots
Best Total Bet: Commanders vs. Ravens OVER 51.5
Best Upset Pick: Broncos +140 vs. Chargers
Best Teaser Bet: Falcons pick'em (vs. Panthers), Colts +8.5 (vs. Titans)
Best Player Prop: Rome Odunze OVER 3.5 Receptions (+126)

Best Spread Bet: Texans -7 vs. Patriots

Even with the Patriots starting rookie quarterback, Drake Maye, I have no faith in their ability to hang with the Texans in what will be a terrible stylistic matchup for New England.

The Patriots’ defense hasn’t done well defending the pass this season, ranking 26th in opponent yards per pass attempt (7.2) and 23rd in opponent dropback EPA. That’s bad news against an electric Texans air-attack that will still thrive even with Nico Collins sidelined.

The reason I have no faith in Maye is he has to play behind a Patriots’ offensive line that allows pressure on 31.4% of dropbacks, the highest rate in the NFL. Things won’t be easy for them against a Texans pass-rush that ranks sixth in sack percentage, taking down opposing quarterbacks on 9.26% of their dropbacks.

I’ll lay the touchdown with Houston.

Best Total Bet: Commanders vs. Ravens OVER 51.5

You can find out my best bet for every single game this week in the "Road to 272 Bets", but here is my favorite total bet among all of them:

This game is going to be by far the toughest challenge for the Commanders so far this season but while their first five opponents haven't exactly been elite teams, the Washington offense has passed every test with flying colors. They lead the entire league in overall EPA/Play, including Dropback EPA and Rush EPA. They also rank fifth in success rate and third in yards per carry (6.3).

With that being said, their defense has struggled to start the year ranking in the bottom 10 of each of the areas mentioned above, making it tough to back them against a team like the Ravens who can match them offensively, but have a much better defense to back them up. The Ravens lead the NFL in yards per play (6.8).

While the Ravens defense deserves praise for being the best run defense in the NFL, they have been susceptible through the air allowing 7.5 yards per pass attempt. If the Commanders can trust their rookie quarterback to air the ball out and he delivers, Washington is going to be in this game.

The thing that's most clear in this game is this is a meeting between arguably the two best offenses in the NFL. The best thing to do is just to bet the OVER and root for an offensive shootout between two fun teams.

Best Upset Pick: Broncos +140 vs. Chargers

If you want to find out who each NFL expert from the Sports Illustrated team is picking to win as an underdog this week, you can find out upset picks here. I've opted to back the Broncos to upset the Chargers:

We've only seen the Chargers in four games but I have some concerns about this team. They're allowing the third-highest pressure rate in the NFL with Herbert being pressured on 26.0% of dropbacks. Joe Alt will likely be back for them but Rashawn Slater is still questionable. Now they have to take on a Broncos defense that is not only dominant in the secondary, but they have the seventh highest pressure rate at 25.1%. They're also third in sack percentage, taking down the opposing quarterback on 10.8% of their dropbacks.

While people are pointing to the Broncos' offense as incompetent, it's worth noting these two offenses are 25th and 26th in EPA/Play. The Los Angeles offense isn't that much better than Denver's.
I've bet on the Broncos almost every week this season and I'm going to continue to lean on their defense and Bo Nix, who has looked better the past few weeks.

Best Teaser Bet: Falcons pick'em (vs. Panthers), Colts +8.5 (vs. Titans)

As always, the main thing we want to do with a six-point teaser is to cross key numbers.

First, we're going to take the Falcons down from -6 to a pick'em against the Panthers. By doing that, we're getting off the secondary key number of six and crossing the primary key number of three. Atlanta should be in a great position to beat the Panthers, by far their weakest opponent to date this season.

For the Colts, we're going to tease them up six points from +2.5 to +8.5. This is a dream situation for a six-point teaser since we get to cross the two key primary numbers of both three and seven. Now, as long as the Colts can keep this game within eight points, this leg of the teaser will be a winner. Considering the Titans' offense has been one of the worst in the NFL this season, it's hard to envision them winning by more than eight points against a feisty Colts squad.

Best Player Prop: Rome Odunze OVER 3.5 Receptions (+126)

My No. 1 ranked player prop in this week's edition of the "Player Prop Countdown" is for Rome Odunze to haul in at least four receptions against the Jaguars:

When I look at the Bears' numbers so far this season the amount of targets Rome Odunze has seen jumps off the page to me. He has seen 29 targets in five games yet has hauled in only 15 of them. Those reception numbers should grow as long as he continues to be targeted early and often in these games.

Considering the Jaguars are allowing 26.0 completions per game, the fourth most in the NFL, there are going to be plenty of receptions to be spread around in Sunday's London game. I love that we can get plus-money on Odunze to haul in at least four of them.