NFL Contract Incentives in Week 18: How to Bet Mike Evans, Kyler Murray, and More in Player Prop Market

Iain MacMillan | Jan 3, 2025

Mike Evans needs just five more receptions and 85 more receiving yards to cash in on a big contract incentive in Week 18. / Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

One of the most popular betting strategies for Week 18 of the NFL season is to target players who have contract incentives tied to certain stats.

If teams are playing in a game that's largely meaningless in the final week of the season, they'll often purposely call plays to try to get certain players the stats they need to cash in on those incentives. You can check out the full list of contract incentives that are up for grabs in Week 18.

NFL Contract Incentives ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/V5W3qbKfEf

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While we can't take advantage of all of these, there are a few we can certainly target in the player prop market. In this article, I'm going to break down a few of my favorites.

NFL Week 18 Player Props for Contract Incentives

Courtland Sutton OVER 72.5 Receiving Yards (-115) via DraftKings

The Broncos won't want to mess around too much in what's a must-win game against the Chiefs, but considering Kansas City is resting the majority of their starters, there's a solid chance Denver is going to be in a favorable spot in the second half.

Courtland Sutton is 82 receiving yards away from cashing in on a massive $2 million dollar incentive so if he's anywhere near that number in the fourth quarter, don't be surprised if Bo Nix does his best to get him the ball.

Mike Evans OVER 93.5 Receiving Yards (-150) via BetMGM

The Buccaneers need to beat the Saints to clinch the NFC South, but that should be a problem considering they're 14-point favorites. Mike Evans needs 5+ receptions and 85+ receiving yards to cash in on the biggest incentive of the week, $3 million, so if he doesn't naturally reach that number by the fourth quarter, they may send a few extra throws his way to make sure he gets that well-deserved cash bonus.

Kyler Murray OVER 30.5 Rush Yards (-125) + Anytime Touchdown (+170) via DraftKings

My favorite incentive-backed player prop to bet on Sunday is Kyler Murray to go over his rushing yards total as well as scoring a touchdown. If he does both of those, Murray will cash in a $750k bonus.

Considering the Cardinals' final game is a meaningless affair, there's no reason why he won't try to cash in on those incentives. The beautiful part about quarterback rushing yards is that he doesn't need a receiver to catch a ball or anyone else to do anything, outside of his offensive line to give him enough time to take off with his legs. You can parlay the two of them at DraftKings at +290 odds.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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