NFL Draft Odds: Shedeur Sanders’s Grip on No. 1 Pick Over Cam Ward Loosens

Brian Giuffra | Dec 30, 2024

Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders’s odds to be the No. 1 pick have dropped. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders seemed destined to be the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL draft heading into this past weekend with the quarterback-needy Giants positioned to draft first and Sanders starting in the Alamo Bowl.

Then, everything changed. 

The Giants beat the Colts in Week 17 and the Patriots lost to the Chargers, moving New England to the top spot and dropping New York to the fourth pick currently. 

Sanders also put up a stinker in his last collegiate game on Saturday, throwing for 208 yards and two touchdowns as well as two interceptions. While that performance won’t impact his draft stock immensely, his odds of being the No. 1 pick have dropped thanks to both scenarios playing out. 

Two weeks ago, Sanders was -180 at FanDuel Sportsbook to be the No. 1 overall pick, representing a 64.3% implied probability of that happening. Now, Sanders is -135, a 57.4% probability. Cam Ward is currently second at +155 odds (he was +250 two weeks ago) followed by Travis Hunter at +440. 

That 6.9% drop in implied probability might not seem massive, but it does show how much things have changed. 

The Patriots now control their destiny in terms of draft position. Lose Week 18 to the Bills, and they have the No. 1 pick. They’re seemingly set at quarterback with 2024 first-rounder Drake Maye showing promise throughout his rookie season. If they hold at No. 1, it’s doubtful Sanders would be their choice. 

Of course, they could trade back, which would make sense as they have holes to fill across their lineup. That’s why Sanders remains the outright favorite to be picked No. 1 at FanDuel. But who moves up into that place, and who that team views as the best quarterback, remains a mystery. 

Currently, the Titans are No. 3 in the draft order and the Browns are No. 4. They’re both QB-needy teams, but that doesn’t mean they’ll move to No. 1 or pick Sanders. 

Behind the Giants at No. 4 are the Jaguars, Panthers, Jets, Raiders and Bears, respectively. The Jets and Raiders need a QB and the Raiders seem like the most likely team willing to give up assets for Sanders. The Giants could also move up. 

That future remains murky, and we have no idea how Sanders or Ward will perform throughout the pre-draft process. The point is, betting on this market now is unwise, as there are too many moving parts. 

One thing is clear, however: Oddsmakers believe Sanders is over 6% less likely to be drafted first overall right now than they were a few days ago. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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