NFL MVP Odds, DPOY Odds and Comeback POY Odds Move Entering NFL Week 18

Brian Giuffra | Jan 3, 2025

Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is second in the NFL MVP odds market. / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

The betting markets for NFL MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, and Comeback Player of the Year are tight heading into Week 18 while some of the other season awards betting markets seem pretty set in stone. 

We’ve seen NFL MVP odds shift drastically over the past few weeks, as Bills quarterback Josh Allen lost a big lead after Week 16 and Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson shot up the oddsboard with some outstanding play. Eagles RB Saquon Barkley and Bengals QB Joe Burrow also staked a claim for MVP, though both are far behind now. 

NFL MVP Odds (via FanDuel Sportsbook)

• Josh Allen -350 
• Lamar Jackson +230
• Joe Burrow +3000
• Saquon Barkley +5000 

This is essentially a two-man race with Allen still set as the outright favorite to win his first MVP. Allen was as low as -550 to win the award on Dec. 9, but his odds dropped to -240 after Jackson had an outstanding performance on Christmas. Allen’s odds were -300 entering Week 18 and have extended to -350, where they currently stand. 

Jackson was +1400 after Week 14, but has moved up consistently as he’s accounted for 11 total TDs and one turnover over the last three weeks and the Ravens have positioned themselves to win the AFC North. 

Allen accounted for three TDs in the Bills' Week 17 win and is expected to play in Week 18, though he'll likely not play the whole game as the Bills have already locked up the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs.

Defensive Player of the Year Odds (via FanDuel Sportsbook)

• Patrick Surtain -200
• T.J. Watt +170

This has been the biggest flip of the awards market as Steelers defensive end T.J. Watt was the outright betting favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year up until this week. Watt was -120 heading into Week 17 and was as high as -220 to win the award a few weeks back. However, Broncos cornerback Patrick Surtain has overtaken Watt as the new betting favorite in the odds market this week. 

Watt hasn’t recorded a sack in the last two weeks and has four sacks total in his last six games, with all four coming in two games. The Steelers have also lost three straight and their defense has been torced in all of those games. Watt has 11.5 sacks and six forced fumbles on the season. 

Surtain has been the best cornerback in the NFL all season and the Broncos can clinch a playoff spot with a win over the Chiefs in Week 18. His base stats aren't eye-popping (four INTs, 11 passes defended), but he’s been the unquestioned leader of one of the best defenses in football. 

Comeback Player of the Year (via FanDuel Sportsbook)

• Sam Darnold -135
• Joe Burrow +110

This is another interesting market that’s seen a recent change. Burrow was leading this market for most of the year but is now behind Vikings QB Sam Darnold.

Darnold has led the Vikings to 14 wins in his first year as their starter and could lead them to the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs with a win over the Lions in Week 18. My belief is the market is pricing Darnold as the favorite because of the wins coupled with some strong stats (4,153 yards and 35 TDs to 12 INTs this season). If the Vikings clinch the No. 1 seed, Darnold will likely win this award.

Looking at individual numbers, Burrow has an edge over Darnold in every metric. He’s thrown for 4,641 yards, and 42 TDs against eight INTs. The only reason he’s not the frontrunner for MVP, and, of course, Comeback Player of the Year, is the Bengals are 8-8. They need a win over the Steelers plus losses by the Broncos and Dolphins to make the playoffs. If the Bengals were 14-2 like the Vikings, Burrow would be the MVP favorite.

The other major awards markets, Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year, Coach of the Year and Offensive Player of the Year, are pretty much set.

Commanders QB Jayden Daniels is expected to be OROY and that betting market has been taken down. Rams LB Jared Verse is -4000 to win DROY. Barkley is -10000 to win OPOTY. Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell is -1350 to win COY. 

We still have one more week to go before these markets are pulled down and voters begin casting their ballots. There are three tight races still up for grabs and Comeback and Defensive POY could hinge on performances this weekend. NFL MVP could also flip if Jackson goes nuclear this week, but that’s Allen’s to lose at this point and he is, at minimum, starting against the Patriots in Week 18.

After that, it’s up to the voters.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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