NFL MVP Odds: Lamar Jackson Gaining Ground on Josh Allen After Week 16

Lamar Jackson is gaining ground on Josh Allen in the NFL MVP race with two weeks to play.

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is now +400 to win the NFL MVP this season. / Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

The NFL MVP race is heating up with two weeks left in the regular season, as Baltimore Ravens star Lamar Jackson made some inroads on Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen’s lead in Week 16.

Allen entered the week at -900 to win the MVP (an implied probability of 90 percent) while Jackson was at +550 (an implied probability of 15.38 percent).

However, Jackson outplayed Allen in a big way in Week 16, and he also put the Ravens firmly in the mix to win the AFC North in the process.

As a result, oddsmakers have shifted this market more towards Jackson ahead of Week 17. 

Latest NFL MVP Odds for 2024 Season

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Josh Allen: -550 (implied probability of 84.62 percent)
• Lamar Jackson: +400 (implied probability of 20 percent)
• Saquon Barkley: +1200
• Jared Goff: +2000
• Joe Burrow: +7000
• Sam Darnold: +7000
• Patrick Mahomes: +7500

So, in just one week, Jackson went from +550 to +400 while Allen’s odds fell all the way from -900 to -550.

Allen didn’t have his best game in Week 16, throwing for just 154 yards, one score and one pick in a narrow win over the New England Patriots. While the star quarterback had massive showing after massive showing earlier this month, he didn’t do a great job to help his season-long numbers in Week 16.

As for Jackson, this week was huge for him for two reasons.

First off, he threw another three touchdowns in a win over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Saturday, but most importantly, he helped the Ravens tie Pittsburgh atop the AFC North. Now, with the Steelers facing the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 17, there’s a chance that the Ravens (who face Houston on Christmas) could be in first place in the division entering Week 18. 

If Jackson can secure the AFC North, he’d end up finishing as at least the No. 3 seed in the AFC – putting him a lot closer to Allen in the standings than if he was on a wild card team. That may persuade some voters to side with Jackson since the gap between the team success wouldn’t be nearly as wide as it has been this season.

When it comes to the numbers, one could make an argument that Jackson’s Week 16 showing only furthered the fact that he has been a better passer than Allen this season. 

Josh Allen vs. Lamar Jackson MVP Statistical Comparison

Completion Percentage

• Allen: 63.8%
• Jackson: 67.9%

Passing Yards

• Allen: 3,549
• Jackson: 3,787

Passing Touchdowns

• Allen: 26
• Jackson: 37

Interceptions

• Allen: 6
• Jackson: 4

QBR

• Allen: 76.7 (Leads NFL)
• Jackson: 75.6

Passer Rating

• Allen: 101.2
• Jackson: 120.6 (Leads NFL)

Rushing Yards

• Allen: 514
• Jackson: 765 (Leads NFL in Yards Per Carry)

Rushing Touchdowns

• Allen: 11
• Jackson: 3

Record

• Allen: 12-3
• Jackson: 10-5

Both of these quarterbacks have been great, and there is an argument to be made for both. While Allen’s hot start to December shot him to the top of the oddsboard, Jackson may be undervalued at this point in the season given his numbers.

If the Ravens win the AFC North, don’t be shocked if Jackson is in serious consideration for his second straight league MVP.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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