NFL MVP Odds: Lamar Jackson Skyrockets in Market After Christmas Day Win

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is now just +180 to win the NFL MVP award for the second straight season.

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is +180 to win MVP. / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Don't look now, but Lamar Jackson is making a serious push to win back-to-back NFL MVP awards.

Already a two-time MVP, Jackson furthered his case on Christmas Day, leading the Baltimore Ravens to a dominant 31-2 win over the Houston Texans, throwing two scores in the process. Jackson is now up to 39 touchdown passes (tying Joe Burrow for the league lead) and just four interceptions in the 2024 season. He also leads the NFL in yards per carry on the ground.

With the win, the Ravens are now in first place in the AFC North with one game to play, as the Pittsburgh Steelers lost to the Kansas City Chiefs on Christmas. Earlier this week, I mentioned that a division win would help Jackson's MVP case, as it would put him much closer in the AFC standings to Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen:

If Jackson can secure the AFC North, he’d end up finishing as at least the No. 3 seed in the AFC – putting him a lot closer to Allen in the standings than if he was on a wild card team. That may persuade some voters to side with Jackson since the gap between the team success wouldn’t be nearly as wide as it has been this season.

Before Christmas Day, Jackson had still cut the gap on Allen in Week 16, as he not only outplayed the Bills star, but Allen picked up what appears to be a minor injury in a close win over the New England Patriots.

Here's a look at the latest odds to win NFL MVP this season.

NFL MVP Odds Suggest Lamar Jackson is Gaining Ground on Josh Allen

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Josh Allen: -240 (implied probability of 70.59 percent)
• Lamar Jackson: +180 (implied probability of 35.71 percent)

Just three days ago, this is what the NFL MVP odds looked like:

• Josh Allen: -550 (implied probability of 84.62 percent)
• Lamar Jackson: +400 (implied probability of 20 percent)

Jackson's Christmas Day win has slashed his odds in half with one game to go, while Allen and the Bills were dealt a major blow on Wednesday. With the Chiefs beating the Steelers, Buffalo officially cannot finish with the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

That spot has been clinched by Kansas City, meaning there is a chance the Bills (the current No. 2 seed in the AFC) and the Ravens (the current No. 3 seed) finish right next to each other in the standings.

That certainly hurts Allen's case, as before he was on a division winner while Jackson was playing for a wild card team.

Jackson's numbers speak for themselves (Allen has been great as well) and he has a chance to lock up the AFC North with a win over the lowly Cleveland Browns in Week 18.

There's a chance these odds swing back in Allen's favor if he has a good game in Week 17, but Jackson has certainly made this race tighter than some expected it to be over the last few weeks.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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