NFL MVP Odds: Patrick Mahomes Holds Massive Lead Following Preseason

Iain MacMillan | Aug 26, 2024

Aug 17, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) throws a pass after faking a handoff to running back Isiah Pacheco (10) against the Detroit Lions during the game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports / Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

The wait is almost over, the NFL regular season starts next week!

That means we only have a handful of days left to place our futures bets for the 2024 campaign. If you think you know how things are going to go down, it's time to put your money where your mouth is.

The next market to take a look at is who's going to win NFL MVP. Only three different players have won the award the past six years; Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Aaron Rodgers, which each of them winning two in that time frame. One of those players is the betting favorite to win it again in 2024.

Let's take a look.

NFL MVP Odds

All odds listed below are via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Patrick Mahomes +450
• Josh Allen +800
• CJ Stroud +1000
• Joe Burrow +1000
• Jordan Love +1400
• Jalen Hurts +1400
• Lamar Jackson +1500
• Brock Purdy +1600
• Tua Tagovailoa +2000
• Dak Prescott +2000
• Jared Goff +2500
• Aaron Rodgers +2500
• Matthew Stafford +3000
• Justin Herbert +3000
• Kirk Cousins +3000
• Trevor Lawrence +3000
• Anthony Richardson +3500
• Kyler Murray +5000
• Christiaan McCaffrey +5000
• Caleb Williams +5000
• Deshaun Watson +7500
• Will Levis +10000
• Justin Jefferson +10000
• Geno Smith +10000
• Tyreek Hill +10000
• Baker Mayfield +10000

Patrick Mahomes Favored to Win Third NFL MVP

Not only are the Chiefs betting favorites to win their third straight Super Bowl, but Patrick Mahomes is also the betting favorite to be named NFL MVP for the third time in his career. At +450 odds, Mahomes has an 18.18% implied probability of winning the award.

The Chiefs quarterback has already won the award twice in both 2018 and 2022. He finished seventh in MVP voting last season after a good, but not great, regular season.

The main thing holding Mahomes back last season was his lack of weapons at the wide receiver position, but Kansas City fans are hoping the addition of Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy will be enough to bring Mahomes back to playing at an MVP level.

Even at his worst, he's one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and at the very least will be in the MVP conversation throughout this season.

Josh Allen Seeking First NFL MVP

Josh Allen has been in the NFL MVP conversation for a number of years, but has yet to win the award. He has finished in the top five of MVP voting in three of the past four seasons, including being the runner-up in 2020.

With the loss of Stefon Diggs, Allen will need to be his team on his back from them to be one of the top teams in the AFC this season. If he drags them to another division title, he could be on the cusp on finally winning his first MVP.

NFL MVP Dark Horses

There are plenty of attractive dark horse options in the NFL MVP betting market. Tua Tagovailoa, who led the NFL in passing yards last season, is ninth on the odds list at 20-1. He is the quarterback of arguably the most explosive offense in the NFL and if the Dolphins can keep up the form they had early in the 2023 campaign, Tagovailoa may lead the league in passing once again but this time be in the conversation to win NFL MVP.

Even further down the odds list, at 30-1, is the new quarterback for the Atlanta Falcons, Kirk Cousins. I wrote in depth about how he's my favorite dark horse MVP candidate this season. It largely comes down to the fact he led the NFL in passing yards when he suffered a season-ending injury last season and now he's going to play in an offense that's loaded with weapons and one of the most elite offensive lines in the league.

The MVP race is going to be fun to watch in 2024.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.