NFL Playoff Odds: Broncos, Dolphins, Bengals Continue Battle for No. 7 Seed in AFC

Brian Giuffra | Dec 30, 2024

Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow hopes to lead his team to the playoffs but will need help to get there. / Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

There are only two NFL playoff spots up for grabs in Week 18 and five teams vying for their spot in the tournament. In the AFC, the Broncos, Dolphins, and Bengals could all claim the No. 7 seed in the playoffs. In the NFC, the Bucs and Falcons both have a chance to claim the NFC South. 

There are a lot of other things that can change in Week 18, most notably the Lions and Vikings playing against each other with the NFC North title and No. 1 seed in the NFC, and a coveted bye, on the line. The Ravens winning in Week 18 also clinches the AFC North for them over the Steelers, though if they stumble, the Steelers could still win. 

For the purpose of this article, however, we’re focusing on the playoff odds. Here’s where things stand currently. 

Broncos, Colts, Bengals Playoff Odds to Make the Playoffs 

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook 

• Broncos -650 (86.7% implied probability)
• Dolphins +650 (13.3% implied probability)
• Bengals +1600 (5.9% implied probability)

Despite losing to the Bengals in Week 17, the Broncos still control their destiny. Beat the Chiefs in Week 18 and they’re in. 

That may seem like a tall task on paper, but the Chiefs are expected to rest their starters in Week 18 having already clinched the No. 1 seed in the AFC. The Broncos are a -8.5-point favorite in the game at FanDuel and -500 on the moneyline, giving them an 83.3% implied probability of winning the game. They would still make the playoffs if they lose and so do the Colts and Bengals. 

The Dolphins face the Jets in Week 18 and are set as -2.5 point road favorites. Starting QB Tua Tagovailoa missed Miami’s Week 17 win over the Browns and the odds suggest he’s out Week 18 as well. That will be something to monitor. They get the last playoff spot if the Broncos lose and they win. 

The Bengals need the most help. They have to beat the Steelers on the road and then hope the Broncos and Dolphins both lose. They’re -2.5 point road favorites over Pittsburgh in Week 18, but Pittsburgh still has something to play for as it will clinch the AFC North if it wins and the Ravens lose. 

The Bengals play the Steelers on Saturday night, giving the Broncos and Dolphins an idea of what they’ll need to do before their games on Sunday at 4:25 PM ET. If the Bengals lose, they’re out of the playoff picture. But the Broncos will still need to win to clinch their spot. 

Bucs and Falcons Playoff Odds 

FanDuel doesn’t have specific odds for who will win the NFC South between the Bucs and Falcons, and thus clinch a playoff spot, but the Week 18 game odds give the Bucs a huge advantage in that race. 

The Bucs are -13.5 point favorites and -950 on the moneyline to beat the Saints in Week 18. The moneyline number gives them an 89.5% implied probability of winning that game. If they do, they win the NFC South and make the playoffs. 

The Falcons are -7.5 point favorites and -450 on the moneyline to beat the Panthers, giving them an 81.8% implied probability of winning the game. However, they need the Bucs to lose and for them to win to claim the NFC South and make the playoffs. 

Both of those games are at 1 PM ET on Sunday. 

Everyone will be focused on the Lions-Vikings tilt on Sunday night football, but there’s still a lot to be determined before then. The odds say the Broncos and Bucs will clinch their playoff spots, but if this season has taught us anything it’s to expect the unexpected.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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