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NFL Power Rankings Based on Odds Ahead of Week 1 of 2024 Season (Chiefs Lead the Way)
Calling all futures bettors, the 2024 NFL season is upon us!
Week 1 finally kicks off on Thursday night with the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs taking on the Baltimore Ravens, starting 18 weeks of non-stop NFL action.
The Chiefs, who are looking to complete the first three-peat in NFL history, are the favorites to win the Super Bowl again this season, but there are plenty of contenders from the Ravens to the San Francisco 49ers to the Detroit Lions and the Cincinnati Bengals.
Predicting the Super Bowl winner is a great way to cash in on some favorable odds in the futures market, and each week this season, yours truly will be tracking the latest movement -- and stock -- of each team in the Super Bowl odds market.
Before any games kick off, we have the first edition of our NFL Power Rankings Based on Super Bowl odds, where the Kansas City Chiefs, once again, lead the way.
Let's dive in.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Power Rankings Based on Super Bowl Odds
1. Kansas City Chiefs (+500)
It's hard to bet against Patrick Mahomes when it comes to winning Super Bowls, but the Kansas City defense is what I want to watch in 2024. With L'Jarius Sneed no longer on the roster, can K.C. repeat the success it had in 2023? If not, will Mahomes, Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy improve the offense after a down season (by the Chiefs' standards) last season?
Regardless, Kansas City will be in the mix for the Super Bowl again as long as Mahomes stays healthy.
2. San Francisco 49ers (+600)
San Francisco brought back Brandon Aiyuk -- officially -- last week, putting it in a good postion entering 2024. Trent Williams still remains up in the air -- a major concern for the offensive line -- but this 49ers team is loaded with talent.
If you believe in Brock Purdy, you'd expect San Fran to be back in the mix for the NFC title in 2024.
3. Baltimore Ravens (+1000)
Is this the year the Ravens finally break through under Lamar Jackson? Lamar won the MVP last season, but Baltimore fell short in the playoffs against Kansas City. The addition of Derrick Henry should make this offense extremely lethal in 2024.
4. Detroit Lions (+1200)
Dan Campbell has turned the Lions into a contender, and he's looking to build on last season's NFC Championship Game appearance in what should be a tough NFC North.
I like Detroit in this market, but winning the division is far from a sure thing with Green Bay and Chicago lurking.
5. Cincinnati Bengals (+1300)
Can Joe Burrow stay healthy?
When he dos, the Bengals are contenders, reaching the AFC title game or the Super Bowl in each of the last two seasons that he avoided injury. Personally, I think Burrow is the biggest threat in the AFC to the Chiefs reaching another Super Bowl.
6. Philadelphia Eagles (+1400)
After a terrible finish to the 2023 season, the Eagles and Jalen Hurts are ushering in a new era without Jason Kelce anchoring the offensive line.
The addition of Saquon Barkley should take some pressure off of Hurts, who struggled as a passer down the stretch last season.
7. Houston Texans (+1600)
Does Houston take the next step in Year 2 for CJ Stroud?
The Texans won the AFC South, won a playoff game and then added to their roster in the offseason around the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year. Houston is the clear favorite in the AFC South in 2024.
8. Buffalo Bills (+1600)
Buffalo lost Stefon Diggs this offseason, but Josh Allen is still one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. I wouldn't be shocked if the Bills are in the mix for the AFC title game, but they'll need to finally get past the Chiefs to pay off at this +1600 price.
9. Green Bay Packers (+1800)
Jordan Love was argaubly the best quarterback in the NFL in the second half of the 2023 season, and he'll look to carry that momentum into 2024. The Packers have a very young offense, and I think they'll be a sneaky contender in the NFC this season.
10. Dallas Cowboys (+1900)
Despite winning 12 games in each of the last three seasons, oddsmakers are low on the Cowboys at the moment. With CeeDee Lamb now under a new contract, Dallas should have a strong offense in 2024. But, can it repeat as NFC East champs?
11. New York Jets (+1900)
Aaron Rodgers is back, and the Jets are the favorite to win the AFC East. While I'm not willing to go that far with this team, New York should be a playoff team in 2024 if its defense still plays at the elite level from last season.
12. Miami Dolphins (+2200)
This may be the first team I'm out on. Miami has been banged up during camp, and it lost a lot on the offensive and defensive line in the offseason. Tua Tagovailoa has steadily improved, but will this Miami defense be good enough to make noise in the AFC?
13. Los Angeles Rams (+3000)
Depending upon the health of veterans Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp, the Rams could be a frisky team in the NFC once again in 2024. Fresh off of a playoff appearance, the Rams appear to be in the mix again -- even without superstar defender Aaron Donald (retired).
14. Atlanta Falcons (+3000)
The Kirk Cousins era gets underway in Atlanta, and the Falcons are the clear favorite to win the NFC South. Adding Justin Simmons and Matthew Judon late in the offseason boosted a defense that should be one of the better ones in the league in 2024.
15. Chicago Bears (+3500)
Oddsmakers are very high on Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears. While I wouldn't have them in this spot -- but we're ranking on odds -- Chicago does have a lot of upside if Williams is a star from day one.
16. Cleveland Browns (+4000)
Cleveland rode a strong defense and a Comeback Player of the Year campaign from Joe Flacco to the playoffs in 2023. The question is 2024: Will Deshaun Watson find his old self? If not, the Browns are a borderline playoff team.
17. Los Angeles Chargers (+4500)
Justin Herbert's weapons are highly questionable in Los Angeles, but he has a new coach in Jim Harbaugh that should raise the floor for the Chargers. These odds suggest they're a borderline playoff team in 2024.
18. Jacksonville Jaguars (+5000)
After everything seemed to go wrong injury wise in 2023, the Jaguars could be undervalued at +5000 in 2024. The AFC South is still winnable, and Trevor Lawrence may deserve more respect -- if healthy -- than he's getting in this market.
19. Pittsburgh Steelers (+5000)
Mike Tomlin has never finished under .500 in his coaching career, so I expect the Steelers to be in the mix for a playoff spot in the AFC. The question is whether or not Russell Wilson remains the starting quarterback for the entire 2024 season over Justin Fields.
20. Seattle Seahawks (+6500)
Geno Smith and the Seahawks would love to get back in the playoff mix in 2024, and they have a new head coach in Mike Macdonald. I don't see much of a ceiling for Seattle where it becomes a Super Bowl contender.
21. Indianapolis Colts (+7500)
Anthony Richardson's health will be key for the Colts, who nearly made the playoffs with Gardner Minshew playing most of the 2023 season. I don't think Indy is a Super Bowl contender, but it wouldn't shock me if it is in the playoff conversation for a good chunk of 2024.
22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+8000)
Are the Bucs undervalued again? A year after having one of the lowest win totals in the NFL (they ended up winning the division and a playoff game), Tampa Bay is 22nd (!!) in the Super Bowl odds. Depending upon how you feel about Atlanta, Tampa Bay is a sneaky bet to win the NFC South.
23. Minnesota Vikings (+8000)
Sam Darnold time? With J.J. McCarthy out for the season, the Minnesota Vikings appear to be in a rebuilding year with Darnold under center.
24. Arizona Cardinals (+10000)
I love Arizona at this price, even though it likely won't win the Super Bowl. Kyler Murray played well after returning from a torn ACL in 2023, and Jonathan Gannon's team had some impressive wins despite being projected to be one of the worst teams in the league last season.
Don't be shocked if Arizona is in the playoff mix despite these awful Super Bowl odds.
25. Las Vegas Raiders (+10000)
It's hard to get excited about the Raiders in the AFC West when their quarterback options are Garnder Minshew and Aidan O'Connell. They'll likely be an under .500 team in 2024.
26. New Orleans Saints (+10000)
I'm low on the Saints, and it appears oddsmakers are as well. Derek Carr doesn't give New Orleans much of a ceiling, and Alvin Kamara is a year older. The NFC South has two teams better than New Orleans already in these opening odds.
27. Washington Commanders (+12000)
Rookie Jayden Daniels will look to prove that Washington made the right call taking him at No. 2, but he doesn't have a ton of help around him. Washington may be better than 2023, but it's not a Super Bowl contender.
28. Tennessee Titans (+15000)
Year 2 of Will Levis comes with a new head coach, but Tennessee made some moves around him by signing Calvin Ridley and Tony Pollard. Tennessee appears to be in a rebuild, unless Levis has a massive breakout.
29. Denver Broncos (+20000)
The Bo Nix era is underway in Denver.
The rookie looked great in the preseason, but it's hard to see Denver making a leap into the playoffs in a loaded AFC. These odds suggest the Broncos are more likely to end up with the No. 1 pick than make the postseason in 2024.
30. New York Giants (+20000)
Can Brian Daboll find the magic he had with Daniel Jones in 2022? The Giants aren't getting any love in the futures market a year removed from a playoff berth -- and win.
31. Carolina Panthers (+25000)
Carolina needs to see more from 2023 No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young, and hopefully new head coach Dave Canales can bring it out of him.
Still, the Panthers are far from contenders entering Week 1.
32. New England Patriots (+35000)
Jacoby Brissett -- not rookie Drake Maye -- will start in Week 1 for the Patriots, who are in a complete rebuild after trading away Matthew Judon this offseason.
Don't bother betting at the Pats at this number.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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PETER DEWEY
Peter is a senior editor for Sports Illustrated Betting. He has worked as a writer and editor for BetSided, NBC Sports, the Connecticut Sun and the Meriden Record-Journal covering the NBA, WNBA, NFL, MLB, and more. A New York City resident, he is a hoops fanatic with a soft spot for his New York Knicks.