NFL Power Rankings Based on Super Bowl Odds Ahead of Week 5 (Jayden Daniels Time, Chiefs Remain Unbeaten)

Breaking down the NFL Power Rankings -- based on Super Bowl odds -- ahead of Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season.

Peter Dewey | Sep 30, 2024

Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels. / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Another week, another round of upsets in the NFL!

2024 has been a crazy season for upsets, and the Washington Commanders, Denver Broncos, Minnesota Vikings and Tampa Bay Buccaneers all picked up upset wins on Sunday.

Now, there were some contenders -- Kansas City, San Francisco and Houston -- that left Week 4 unscathed, but a lot of shifting has to be done atop our NFL Power Rankings -- based on Super Bowl odds -- ahead of Week 5.

There are still two games to play on Monday night, which could eventually alter how I feel about these teams, but after Sunday's action, there are some pretty clear winners.

Rookie quarterbacks Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix all picked up wins on Sunday, and all of their teams sit at .500 or better through four weeks. Washington is leading the way at 3-1, and it may be time to take the Commanders seriously as a wild card threat in the NFC.

Here's how every stacks up after Sunday's Week 4 action!

NFL Power Rankings Based on Super Bowl Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

1. Kansas City Chiefs (+450) Last Week: No. 1

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Kansas City moved to 4-0, but it may have lost Rashee Rice (knee) in the process. Travis Kelce had his best game of the season on Sunday, but losing Rice would be a massive blow to this attack.

2. Buffalo Bills (+900) LW: No. 2

Buffalo laid an egg on the road against Baltimore on Sunday Night Football, but I'm leaving the 3-1 Bills in the No. 2 spot. Buffalo still has some impressive wins on the season, and it lost to a contender. At +900, Josh Allen and company would still be a solid bet to win the Super Bowl.

3. San Francisco 49ers (+650) LW: No. 7

Deebo Samuel and George Kittle were back in Week 4, and the 49ers cruised to a home win over the New England Patriots. If this team can get healthy, it's still the class of the NFC.

4. Minnesota Vikings (+1400) LW: No. 9

Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold. / Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

Let's be for real. This Vikings team is a problem. Minnesota is now 4-0, knocking off two contenders in the NFC (Green Bay and San Francisco) and one in the AFC (Houston along the way). This price is much shorter than what is was early in the season, but Sam Darnold and company deserve some respect as one of the few undefeated teams left.

5. Detroit Lions (+1100) LW: No. 4

Can Detroit keep pace and remain a game behind Minnesota with a win over undefeated Seattle on Monday night?

6. Baltimore Ravens (+900) LW: No. 8

Well, just like that the Ravens are back under +1000 to win the Super Bowl. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry dominated the Bills on Sunday night, and Baltimore has strung together wins against the Cowboys and Bills to get back to .500 on the season.

7. Houston Texans (+1500) LW: No. 11

Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud. / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Houston has not won in dominant fashion in 2024, but it sits at 3-1 in likely the weakest division in football, giving it a pretty clear path to a playoff berth.

8. Philadelphia Eagles (+1400) LW: No. 3

The Eagles have major issues on both sides of the ball, and they were blown out by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 4. At 2-2, Philly isn't a sure thing in a suddenly tough NFC East division.

9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5000) LW: No. 12

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield. / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Baker Mayfield and the Bucs beat another NFC contender -- Philly -- in Week 4 to move to 3-1. There may be some ups and downs with this team, but after it won the NFC South last season, I still remain high on this group to repeat that feat in 2024.

10. Green Bay Packers (+2200) LW: No. 13

The Packers are now 0-2 with Jordan Love and 2-0 with Malik Willis. Ewing theory, anyone? In all seriousness, Green Bay should be fine, but it's concerning that Love has four picks in two games so far in 2024.

11. Dallas Cowboys (+2500) LW: No. 16

Dallas Cowboys linebacker Micah Parsons. / Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Dallas picked up a important win on Thursday night, but Micah Parson and DeMarcus Lawrence were injured in the process. That causes some pause if you're considering on betting this team to win the Super Bowl.

12. Seattle Seahawks (+4000) LW: No. 15

The undefeated Seahawks are looking to keep that rolling on Monday night as underdogs in Detroit.

13. New York Jets (+2000) LW: No. 11

An ugly home loss as 7.5-point favorites to Denver could come back to haunt the Jets in a loaded AFC.

14. Pittsburgh Steelers (+4000) LW: No. 10

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Justin Fields. / Christine Tannous/USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images

Pittsburgh's defense allowed more points on Sunday than it had in the first three weeks of the season. That's not a recipe for success for this team, but at 3-1, Pittsburgh is still in a place to compete for the playoffs through four weeks.

15. Atlanta Falcons (+3000) LW: No. 18

A last-second field goal gave the Falcons a massive division win on Sunday over the Saints. While there are some questions about this team's viability as a Super Bowl contender -- Atlanta has shown that it should compete for a playoff spot in 2024.

16. Cincinnati Bengals (+2500) LW: No. 17

Cincinnati finally won a game -- beating the Carolina Panthers -- but it needs to do a lot more before betters considering investing in its futures. The Bengals are still just 1-3 on the season.

17. Washington Commanders (+5000) LW: No. 27

Washington Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin. / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Washington is 3-1 and leading the NFC East, and Jayden Daniels looks as good as advertised. Can this defense, which has struggled at times in 2024, hold up to make Washington a playoff team?

18. Los Angeles Chargers (+4000) LW: No. 14

Back-to-back losses for the Chargers -- with an injured Justin Herbert -- certainly should raise some concern with the Broncos and Raiders also at 2-2 now this season.

19. New Orleans Saints (+3500) LW: No. 13

Well, the first two weeks were fun for the Saints. After back-to-back losses New Orleans is now third in the NFC South and has a loss under its belt to Atlanta already.

20. Indianapolis Colts (+6000) LW: No. 24

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Joe Flacco. / Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

At 2-2, Indy is firmly in second place in the AFC South, and Joe Flacco was solid filling in for the injured Anthony Richardson. The Colts have playoff upside through four weeks.

21. Chicago Bears (+7000) LW: No. 22

Caleb Williams is continuing to settle in, and the Bears are back to .500 on the season after winning against the Rams in Week 4. The NFC North is shaping up to be the best division in the NFL at this point in the season.

22. Miami Dolphins (+7000) LW: No. 21

Miami is 1-2 and on its third starting quarterback in four weeks. Simply put: Without Tua Tagovailoa -- or a trade for a starting-caliber QB -- this team is not worth betting on at this point in the season.

23. Los Angeles Rams (+9000) LW: No. 19

Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay. / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Injuries have crushed the Rams so far in 2024, and I am wary about backing them in the futures market at 1-3 with so much uncertainty on when they'll be at full strength.

24. Las Vegas Raiders (+11000) LW: No. 26

I wouldn't touch the Raiders with a 10-foot pole in the futures market with Davante Adams and Maxx Crosby banged up, but they did knock off Cleveland to get back to .500 on the season on Sunday.

25. Denver Broncos (+15000) LW: No. 28

No, we're not betting Denver to be a playoff team, as Bo Nix still has a lot of work to do. But this defense is ELITE, holding the Jets to just nine points and no touchdowns in Sunday's win. At 2-2, Denver is showing it is frisky already in 2024.

26. Arizona Cardinals (+9000) LW: No. 20

Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray. / Patrick Breen/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

I'm not totally out on the Cardinals, but they play in a tough division and are sitting at 1-3. I wouldn't bet them at this number, and I don't think they're a playoff team -- right now -- in the NFC.

27. Cleveland Browns (+13000) LW: No. 22

Another week, another poor offensive showing and loss for the Cleveland Browns, who are now 1-3 and don't have Joe Flacco to save them.

28. Jacksonville Jaguars (+11000) LW: No. 23

Jacksonville is now 0-4 after a last-minute loss to Houston on Sunday. Doug Pederson is on the hot seat and this team is a stay far, far, far away in any futures market.

29. New York Giants (+40000) LW: No. 29

New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones. / Julian Leshay Guadalupe/NorthJersey.com / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Daniel Jones didn't play poorly on Thursday night against Dallas -- but he wasn't good. Now, Malik Nabers has a concussion, and the Giants are 1-3. I couldn't imagine even betting on them to make the playoffs.

30. Carolina Panthers (+40000) LW: No. 31

Carolina lost in Week 4 to the Cincinnati Bengals, but the offense remains much-improved under Andy Dalton. Like I said last week, that shouldn't be looked at as a win for Carolina, who invested so much into Bryce Young.

31. Tennessee Titans (+35000) LW: No. 32

There's a chance the Titans could be 0-4 by the end of Monday night. Can they beat a shorthanded Miami team starting Tyler Huntley at quarterback?

32. New England Patriots (+40000) LW: No. 30

New England Patriots quarterback Jacoby Brissett. / Neville E. Guard-Imagn Images

To put it simply, the Patriots aren't going to win much with Jacoby Brissett under center, but they may not want to risk injuring rookie Drake Maye behind a suspect offensive line. After winning in Week 1, the Pats have turned in three dismal performances since then to fall to 1-3.