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NFL Upset Betting Predictions and Picks for Week 6 (Commanders Are Live 'Dogs vs. Ravens)

The Sports Illustrated team breaks down their favorite upset picks for Week 6 of the 2024 NFL Season

SI Staff

The Commanders are significant underdogs this weekend against the Ravens.
The Commanders are significant underdogs this weekend against the Ravens. / Lamar: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images, Jayden: Peter Casey-Imagn Images

Halfway through the NFL Week 5 Sunday slate it looked like underdogs were finally going to take a back seat. Then, out of nowhere, the Arizona Cardinals and New York Giants both won as touchdown underdogs to keep alive the trend of massive upsets every week.

Throughout the season, the Sports Illustrated team picks their favorite upset every week. In Week 5, no one was willing to take a shot on the Cardinals or Giants as massive underdogs, leaving Gilberto Manzano and Iain MacMillan as the only writers to correctly hit their upset picks. Both picked the Cowboys to win on Sunday Night Football.

Let's take a look at where everyone stands with their upset picks so far this season:

We move on to Week 6 and the entire team is back to break down their favorite upset picks. The odds listed below are via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Albert Breer Week 6 Upset Pick

Note: No Upset Pick For This Week

Conor Orr Week 6 Upset Pick

Jets (+114) vs. BIlls

The interim bump is real. Jeff Ulbrich is a coach that was going to be a legitimate head coaching candidate this winter if the Jets were successful and, while I think we can all agree it was ridiculous to fire Robert Saleh five games into the season, it’s not wild to assume that a new voice can ignite the locker room.

Matt Verderame Week 6 Upset Pick

Jets (+114) vs. Bills

This is going to be a defining moment for the Jets. After the firing of Robert Saleh on Tuesday morning, New York is at a crisis point. Jeff Ulbrich has been promoted from defensive coordinator to interim coach and now has a Monday nighter against Buffalo as his debut. The good news for the Jets?

The Bills can’t throw the ball despite having Josh Allen under center. The bad news for the Jets? They can’t throw the ball despite having Aaron Rodgers. This likely comes down to turnovers, situational execution, and defense. Perhaps New York has focus after all the craziness, even if for only one week.

Mitch Goldich Week 6 Upset Pick

Seahawks (+154) vs. 49ers

A divisional rivalry game on a Thursday night feels like a recipe for anything to happen.

In this case, the matchup features two good teams both looking to rebound from disappointing Week 5 losses. The Seahawks have spent the week parked at home, having watched their 3–0 start become 3–2 in a span of six days. The 49ers have to go on the road after blowing a 10-point fourth-quarter lead against the Cardinals.

The Niners have alternated wins and losses through five weeks, and now have a chance to pull back up to .500 (which would also leave them tied for the division lead). But I think the Niners have looked more vulnerable this year, whether or not you think the Super Bowl losers’ hangover effect is real. This is also a classic trap game for San Francisco, with the Super Bowl rematch against the Chiefs on tap for next week.

Finally, I think Mike Macdonald was hired for this game. The Ravens forced Brock Purdy to throw an ugly four interceptions last season, with Macdonald as their DC, and he was brought to Seattle to solve Kyle Shanahan’s offense twice a year. I’m excited to see the first matchup.

Gilberto Manzano Week 6 Upset Pick

Commanders (+235) vs. Ravens

The Commanders have proven they’re the real deal on offense with rookie Jayden Daniels leading a unit that’s averaging a league-high 31.0 points per game. The Ravens can also score in a hurry because they rank second to the Commanders with 29.4 points per game. But I’m going to bank on Dan Quinn’s defense getting a few more stops than the Bengals did last week against Lamar Jackson & Co. The Bengals should have put that game away early in the fourth quarter. And I’m not sure the Ravens prefer to be in high-scoring games. They want to build early leads and play ahead with Derrick Henry. That might not happen against Daniels’s red-hot offense.

Peter Dewey Week 6 Upset Pick

Broncos (+124) vs. Chargers

The Denver Broncos have won three games in a row, covering the spread in each matchup despite being set as underdogs against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New York Jets.

Now, they’re home underdogs against the Los Angeles Chargers, who are coming off a bye week and haven’t looked great offensively so far in 2024.

Denver is allowing just 4.4 yards per play – the third-best mark in the NFL – and it’s a top-10 defense against the run so far in 2024, allowing just 4.2 yards per carry. That’s going to make things tough on a Chargers team that relied heavily on J.K. Dobbins in their wins in Week 1 and Week 2.

Los Angeles enters Week 6 off of a bye, but it went into it with a ton of injury concerns, including some for quarterback Justin Herbert.

If Bo Nix can build on the best game of his career, Denver is live to pull off an upset at home behind this elite defense.

Jennifer Piacenti Week 6 Upset Pick

Jets (+114) vs. Bills

 Vibes.

Am I allowed to make a pick on Vibes?

Ok, maybe not just vibes. Since 2000, teams in their first game after firing a head coach midseason win 47% of the time. 

Monday Night Football should be a good one this week. Look for Breece Hall and Braelon Allen to run all over the Bills, while the Bills could struggle vs. a tough Jets defense.  Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen will play at their best, but the Jets' defense should be the difference-maker that carries them to the upset victory.

Iain MacMillan Week 6 Upset Pick

Broncos (+124) vs. Chargers

We've only seen the Chargers in four games but I have some concerns about this team. They're allowing the third-highest pressure rate in the NFL with Herbert being pressured on 26.0% of dropbacks. Joe Alt will likely be back for them but Rashawn Slater is still questionable. Now they have to take on a Broncos defense that is not only dominant in the secondary, but they have the seventh highest pressure rate at 25.1%. They're also third in sack percentage, taking down the opposing quarterback on 10.8% of their dropbacks.

While people are pointing to the Broncos' offense as incompetent, it's worth noting these two offenses are 25th and 26th in EPA/Play. The Los Angeles offense isn't that much better than Denver's.
I've bet on the Broncos almost every week this season and I'm going to continue to lean on their defense and Bo Nix, who has looked better the past few weeks.

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