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NFL Upset Picks for Week 3 (Giants Get First Win of Season vs. Browns)

The Sports Illustrated team breaks down their favorite upset picks for Week 3 of the 2024 NFL Season

SI Staff

Can the Giants upset the Browns in NFL Week 3?
Can the Giants upset the Browns in NFL Week 3? /

Underdog bettors loved Week 2 of the NFL season as they went 8-8 overall, including several underdogs of a touchdown or more managing to squeak out wins.

You're also probably a happy camper if you tailed the Sports Illustrated team's upset picks last week. Seven of the eight writers nailed their upset picks including Conor Orr and Iain MacMillan, who both cashed in a +235 ticket on the Saints to take down the Cowboys.

Let's take a look at where everyone stands with their picks after the first two weeks of the season.

We move on to Week 3 and the entire team is back to break down their favorite upset picks. The odds listed below are via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Albert Breer Week 3 Upset Pick

Chargers +100 vs. Steelers

This is the proverbial immovable object against the irresistible force. Through two weeks, the Chargers have the NFL’s second-ranked ground attack, and the Steelers the league’s fifth-best run defense. Drilling down further reinforces the point. Over the last six quarters, after the first half of the first game, the Chargers have rushed for 369 yards on 56 carries—averaging 123 yards rushing per half and 6.7 yards per carry.

Meanwhile, the Falcons run game that Pittsburgh corralled in Week 1 ran wild on Philly on Monday night. So what does it mean for Sunday? Strength on strength, and so this is the week where I see Justin Herbert reaping the benefits of having that sort of run game, with a big game against a defense geared up to slow down J.K. Dobbins. As Jim Harbaugh said in January, “Don’t let the power blues fool you.” The Chargers now have the kind of team that can travel into the Rust Belt and go blow for blow. And the same quarterback capable of throwing haymakers to finish the fight. -- Albert Breer

Conor Orr Week 3 Upset Pick

Giants +235 vs. Browns

The Giants didn’t play poorly last week against the Commanders and lost because of a freak injury to a kicker. The Browns did play poorly last week against the Jaguars and won thanks to Jacksonville’s ability to squander seemingly every red zone situation. While Daniel Jones versus Myles Garrett feels dubious, I think the Giants are going to play like their season is riding on the outcome – and, at 0-2, it kind of is. -- Conor Orr

Matt Verderame Week 3 Upset Pick

Packers +114 vs. Titans

Why are the Titans favored in this game? Is Will Levis clearly better than Malik Willis? Levis can throw the ball better, but he’s also proven to be a turnover machine. Tennessee is laying points and yet Green Bay, even without Jordan Love, is the better team. Give me the Packers running the ball consistently with Josh Jacobs and Willis, while the defense tees off on a Titans attack that gives away presents like Santa on Christmas. -- Matt Verderame

Gilberto Manzano Week 3 Upset Pick

Cardinals +124 vs. Lions

Yes, this is a very risky pick, but the dogs have been barking through two weeks in the NFL. The Lions’ new-look secondary has struggled and now has to face Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr., who torched the Rams’ defense last week. Also, the Cardinals have been productive on the ground with James Conner leading the charge, which might help against Aidan Hutchinson. Arizona has the offense to keep this one close against an angry Lions squad that let one get away against the Buccaneers. But let’s not overlook Jonathan Gannon’s defense after they smothered Matthew Stafford last week. -- Gilberto Manzano

Peter Dewey Week 3 Upset Pick

Chargers +100 vs. Steelers

The Pittsburgh Steelers may be 2-0 so far this season, but they haven’t exactly looked great on offense, scoring just 31 total points and ranking 24th in net yards per play through two weeks.

Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Chargers have showcased an impressive running game – led by J.K. Dobbins – through the first two weeks of the season, and they’ve allowed just 13 total points.

I expect this to be a low-scoring game, but the Chargers have much better quarterback play with Justin Herbert than whoever the Steelers start between Justin Fields and Russell Wilson. I am worried about the Pittsburgh defense finding a way to win this game, but the Chargers are a much more competent offense than Denver was last week. 

This game is close to a pick’em, but I like getting the 2-0 Chargers at plus money in Week 3. -- Peter Dewey

Jennifer Piacenti Week 3 Upset Pick

Packers +114 vs. Titans

Revenge game narrative!  Malik Willis will return to Nashville for a contest with one of the lowest totals of the week- just 36.5.    

Green Bay’s defense exceeded expectations last Sunday, holding the Lions to just 16 points and forcing two interceptions from Jared Goff.  Meanwhile,   Tennessee is tied with the Broncos for the most giveaways so far this season (5). Those giveaways have resulted in 18 points for their opponents.   Titans’ QB Will Levis has thrown an interception and fumbled in both games this season. 

Matt LeFleur will continue to lean on the run game to keep his signal-caller out of trouble. Willis didn’t give the ball away in Week 2 and passed for 122 yards and a TD while adding another 41 yards on the ground. That plus Aaron Jones and Ty Chandler should be enough to keep this game close with the Packers eeking out a win. 

Another reason I like this bet? Should Jordan Love end up healthy enough to start for the Packers, I expect this line to move.  Grab the value now while you can. -- Jennifer Piacenti

Iain MacMillan Week 3 Upset Pick

Chargers +100 vs. Steelers

The Chargers are coming in as my upset pick of the week. The Steelers continue to baffle me as year after year they win games they don't deserve to win. Despite being 2-0, the Steelers have a Net Yards per Play of -0.7, which ranks 24th in the NFL.

Good coaching and an average turnover margin per game of +2.5 has led them to their current record, but now they take on a team that has also been strongly coached through the first two weeks of the season in Los Angeles.

The Steelers simply can't continue to win games scoring just 15.5 points per game. Justin Herbert and company will be able to do enough to get the win in Pittsburgh on Sunday. -- Iain MacMillan

Mitch Goldich Week 3 Upset Pick

Chargers +100 vs. Steelers

I correctly picked the Steelers to win outright in both of their first two games, including as an underdog in Week 1 in Atlanta and as a small favorite last week in Denver, but I am finally going against them here in their home debut. 

Both of Pittsburgh’s previous games have been low-scoring, with totals—totals—of 28 and 19. This team has two wins and one touchdown! The defense has been great, and I do think this team can stay afloat for a bit with this formula, but you can only win so many games this way.

The Chargers, meanwhile, have held the Las Vegas Raiders to 10 and the Carolina Panthers to three. Those are not exactly world-beating offenses, but neither are the Steelers. The Chargers won’t need to score many points to come away with a win, and I think they will. One big play from J.K. Dobbins might be enough to be the game’s only touchdown, and Cameron Dicker can do the rest. -- Mitch Goldich

More NFL Week 3 Betting Articles

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