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Expert NFL Upset Betting Picks for Week 4 (Can Bills Upset Ravens on Sunday Night Football?)
Underdogs have dominated the NFL through the first three weeks. Not only are they covering the spread at a high rate, but they're winning games outright. In fact, underdogs of 5.5 points or more are 10-6 straight up so far this season, something we've never seen in the history of the NFL.
They may not continue to win quite as much as they have, but the Sports Illustrated team is still trying to find an upset winner every week. Conor Orr cashed in big on the Giants in Week 3 and both Matt Verderame and Jennifer Piacenti correctly picked the Packers to upset the Titans.
Let's take a look at where everyone stands with their upset picks so far this season:
- Albert Breer, Senior NFL Reporter (1-2, -0.64 units)
- Conor Orr, Senior Writer (2-1, +3.7 units)
- Matt Verderame, NFL Staff Writer (3-0, +3.42 units)
- Gilberto Manzano, NFL Staff Writer (0-3, -3 units)
- Jennifer Piacenti, Senior Betting and Fantasy Analyst (2-1, +1.28 units)
- Peter Dewey, Senior Editor Betting (1-2, -0.86 units)
- Iain MacMillan, Senior Editor Betting (1-2, +0.35 units)
- Mitch Goldich, Senior Editor (2-1, +1.38 units)
We move on to Week 4 and the entire team is back to break down their favorite upset picks. The odds listed below are via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Albert Breer Week 4 Upset Pick
Vikings (+120) vs. Packers
I’m riding the Vikings after three weeks—that’s a well-coached, well-conceived team, that’s playing with an edge. And even on the road, and even with the potential that Jordan Love is back in the lineup, I’ll take Minnesota in a dogfight to get to 4-0, and stay alone atop the NFC North. -- Albert Breer
Conor Orr Week 4 Upset Pick
Browns (+105) vs. Raiders
Cleveland is a mess but they are a relative mess in a football sense. They are also good enough to keep the ball away from the Raiders and narrowly skate by with a 13-10 win or a 14-13 win. Those are the vibes this one is giving off for me. Though who would have thought a team that traded for Deshaun Watson would be an underdog to this Raiders team? Yikes. -- Conor Orr
Matt Verderame Week 4 Upset Pick
Rams (+120) vs. Bears
Why are the Rams getting points in this game? The Bears can’t block anybody and Caleb Williams has had no feel for the rush in his first three pro starts. While Los Angeles is without Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, it was able to beat the 49ers with Tutu Atwell and Demarcus Robinson. There’s no reason to think the Rams can’t march into Soldier Field and beat the Bears, who while good defensively, have myriad issues on the other side of the ball. -- Matt Verderame
Mitch Goldich Week 4 Upset Pick
Bills (+110) vs. Ravens
The Bills have looked like the best team in football through three weeks, and here they are as underdogs for the second time this year. I have been plenty high on the Ravens, picking them to win the Super Bowl before the season started, but you’d have to give the edge to Buffalo if they were playing on a neutral field.
Priced into the line is the fact that the Bills are not just on the road, but playing a short-week game after a dominant Monday night victory over the Jaguars. But that game got out of hand early, so I don’t think it took as much out of them as a full 60-minute battle would have. Plus, the Bills have plenty of experience over the years with prime-time games (and coming off them), plus snowstorms moving their games around and more. I trust Sean McDermott and Josh Allen to have this team ready to play in any environment and on any day of the week. They are rolling right now, and it’s hard to pick against them when they look this sharp. I’ll gladly take the points, and feel comfortable picking them to win outright, too. -- Mitch Goldich
Gilberto Manzano Week 4 Upset Pick
Buccaneers (+114) vs. Eagles
I don’t think what the Eagles’ defense showed in New Orleans was a one-time performance. They’ll probably continue that against the Buccaneers, but it’s a difficult road matchup against a good team itching to bounce back from an ugly loss to the Broncos. Tampa Bay is better than that and I’m betting the Baker Mayfield–led Buccaneers will prove that during this intriguing Week 4 showdown. It’s not easy to contain Mike Evans in back-to-back weeks. -- Gilberto Manzano
Peter Dewey Week 4 Upset Pick
Rams (+120) vs. Bears
Despite being down Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, Steve Avila, and others, the Los Angeles Rams upset the San Francisco 49ers in Week 3.
Now, Los Angeles hits the road against the Chicago Bears, who have struggled on offense all season and only have a win against the 0-3 Tennessee Titans. I can’t get behind the Bears as favorites in any situation right now.
Chicago can’t run the ball, and the team’s offensive line has given Caleb Williams very little help in 2024. While the Rams are 1-2, they fought hard on the road against Detroit before upsetting a contender in San Francisco.
Don’t sleep on Matthew Stafford and company picking up a road win in Week 4. -- Peter Dewey
Jennifer Piacenti Week 4 Upset Pick
Bills (+110) vs. Ravens
The Bills have looked every bit a Super Bowl contender, leading the NFL in average points per game (37.3) and allowing just 16 points per game to opponents. They have opened the season 3-0.
The Ravens got their first win of the season in Week 3 vs. the Cowboys, but they almost allowed the Cowboys to claw back in the final quarter. They are now 1-2 on the season averaging 23 points per game of offense while allowing an average of 26 points per game to opponents.
Both quarterbacks are 6-1 in their careers on Sunday Night Football.
Both teams have elite dual-threat QBs and strong run games; however, the Bills have a far better defense. The Bills add to their win streak Sunday night. -- Jennifer Piacenti
Iain MacMillan Week 4 Upset Pick
Seahawks (+150) vs. Lions
The Seahawks have been unbelievably good on the defensive side of the football this season. Heading into Week 4, they lead the NFL in opponent yards per play (3.9) while also ranking inside the top five in third-down defense, red zone defense, and opponent points per play.
Mike Mcdonald, the former defensive coordinator for the Ravens, has turned this Seahawks team into a formidable force on defense while their offense continues to do enough to win these games.
The Seahawks' clear defensive superiority over the Lions in this game makes them a live underdog to pull off the upset on Monday night.-- Iain MacMillan
NFL Week 4 Betting Content
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