NFL Upset Predictions and Picks for Week 10 (Patriots Are a Strong Underdog Play vs. Bears)

Iain MacMillan | Nov 7, 2024

The Patriots are set at +220 underdogs against the Bears in NFL Week 10. / Caleb Williams: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images, Drake Maye: Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

Week 10 will officially mark the start of the second half of the 2024 NFL regular season.

Favorites dominated Week 9 action, with the only upset being the Carolina Panthers taking down the New Orleans Saints. Conor Orr was the only one on the SI Team to correctly predict that upset, as the rest of the team went a different direction.

Let's take a look at where everyone stands with their record of picking upset winners:

• Albert Breer, Senior NFL Reporter 3-5 (-0.99 units)
• Conor Orr, Senior Writer 3-6 (+1.2 units)
• Matt Verderame, NFL Staff Writer 5-4 (+1.89 units)
• Gilberto Manzano, NFL Staff Writer 2-7 (-4.66 units)
• Peter Dewey, Senior Editor Betting 3-6 (-2.36 units)
• Iain MacMillan, Senior Editor Betting 2-7 (-3.45 units)
• Mitch Goldich, Senior Editor 3-6 (-2.62 units)

It's time to move on to Week 10. All odds listed below are via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Albert Breer Week 10 Upset Pick

Steelers (+124) vs. Commanders

I love so many things about where Washington is, but this feels to me like a tough matchup for the home team all the way around. T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith and perhaps even Preston Smith should be able to challenge the Commanders tackle situation. It’s probably the best defense, in general, that Jayden Daniels has faced. And the Steelers' run game should make hay against Washington’s 30th-ranked run defense. So my guess here would be the 4-point favorite goes down outright. -- Albert Breer

Conor Orr Week 10 Upset Pick

Dolphins (-102) vs. Rams

I liked the way the Dolphins played last week and narrowly escaped Orchard Park with a victory. Some of the Bills’ final drive was a bit of an outlier and featured a penalty for heavy yardage and a questionable spot of the football. In that way, I think Miami’s perfectly capable of taking out a Rams team that is good and on a roll but not infallible by any stretch. -- Conor Orr

Matt Verderame Week 10 Upset Pick

Bengals (+220) vs. Ravens (-270)

This should be the best game of Week 10, and there’s little reason for the Bengals to be getting a touchdown, even on the road. Yes, the Ravens won their first matchup, but Cincinnati led throughout most of the day and missed a would-be game-winning field goal in overtime. Even if Baltimore does complete the season sweep, look for a close, high-scoring game. The Bengals are also desperate at 4–5, trying to climb back into the AFC playoff picture. -- Matt Verderame

Mitch Goldich Week 10 Upset Pick

Steelers (+124) vs. Commanders

There were not a lot of upset picks I liked this week—I was tempted, but didn’t have the guts to pick the Buccaneers over the 49ers—so I’ll take a stab on the Steelers over the Commanders. The Commanders’ rebuild has been ahead of schedule this season, and that 7–2 record is sparkling, but the past two games have been a little close for comfort against two teams (the Bears and Giants) that they could have beaten much more handily. The Steelers, meanwhile, seem to be hitting their stride. I think they could get even better as Russell Wilson gets acclimated as the team’s starter, and they are coming off a bye. This feels like a game Mike Tomlin’s team can win ugly, as it often does. -- Mitch Goldich

Gilberto Manzano Week 10 Upset Pick

Patriots (+220) vs. Bears

Patriots rookie quarterback Drake Maye has gained the respect of his teammates with the way he’s battled the past few weeks. He’s not doing as well as Jayden Daniels, but he’s finding ways to keep his team in games. Maye’s chaotic game-tying touchdown in the final seconds of regulation last week against the Titans pretty much summarized how he’s played this season. Some bad, some good and a lot of belief from his teammates. The Chicago Bears have had nothing but bad vibes the past two weeks. Give me Maye to beat Caleb Williams in this battle of top three picks from the 2024 draft.   -- Gilberto Manzano

Peter Dewey Week 10 Upset Pick

Panthers (+230) vs. Giants

I can’t buy this New York Giants team as a five-point favorite, even against the two-win Carolina Panthers.

Bryce Young played arguably the best game of his NFL career in Week 9, and the Panthers may get some help for him on offense with Jonathon Brooks and Adam Thielen potentially returning in Week 10.

New York has been crushed on the ground (allowing a league-high 5.2 yards per carry), which should take some pressure off Young having to throw the ball. With this game set overseas, I think we could see a shocking outcome. -- Peter Dewey

Iain MacMillan Week 10 Upset Pick

Titans (+280) vs. Chargers

The Chargers defense has been the difference in many of their wins this season, but the Titans can match them on that side of the football. The Chargers are second in the NFL in opponent success rate but the Titans are right behind them at third. Tennessee also allows fewer yards per play at 4.7 compared to 5.1 of Los Angeles. Even more importantly, the Titans lead the NFL in opponent yards per pass attempt, giving up just 5.4 yards per throw. If their secondary can shut down the Chargers' receivers, they will be live to pull off the upset.

The Titans are only barely behind the Chargers in Net Yards per Play this season. The Chargers are 16th at +0.2 and the Titans are 19th at 0.0.

It's certainly a longshot bet, but if you want to take a chance on a big underdog, there have been few I've liked this season as much as I like the Titans this week. -- Iain MacMillan

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!