NFL Upset Predictions and Picks for Week 11 ( Falcons Will Upset Broncos in Denver)

The SI Team Make Their Upset Picks for Week 11 of the 2024 NFL Season

The Falcons are set as underdogs to the Broncos in Week 11. / Kirk: Brett Davis-Imagn Images, Bo: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

There have been a handful of weeks this NFL season where only one or two underdogs managed to secure the win. That wasn't the case in Week 10 and the SI Team had a strong week picking upsets.

Albert Breer, Conor Orr, Gilberto Manzano, Peter Dewey, and Mitch Goldich all nailed their upset pick for Week 10. Can they have similar success in Week 11?

Let's take a look at where everyone stands with their record of picking upset winners:

• Albert Breer, Senior NFL Reporter 4-5 (+0.25 units)
• Conor Orr, Senior Writer 4-6 (+2.18 units)
• Matt Verderame, NFL Staff Writer 5-5 (+0.89 units)
• Gilberto Manzano, NFL Staff Writer 3-7 (-2.46 units)
• Peter Dewey, Senior Editor Betting 4-6 (-0.06 units)
• Iain MacMillan, Senior Editor Betting 2-8 (-4.45 units)
• Mitch Goldich, Senior Editor 4-6 (-1.38 units)

It's time to move on to Week 11. All odds listed below are via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Albert Breer Week 11 Upset Pick

Falcons (+120) vs. Broncos

Yeah, Atlanta lost last week—blown down in a Rizz-a-cane in New Orleans—but it’s not like they weren’t competent. They ran for 181 yards. Kirk Cousins was fine, outside of a pick, and the defense forced the Saints away from their run game, putting the ball in Derek Carr’s hands at a time when Carr didn’t have Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. And New Orleans won’t despite all that.

Not ideal, but not the end of the world. I see the Falcons bouncing back this week, and finding a way to win on the road against a fast-improving Broncos team. -- Albert Breer

Conor Orr Week 11 Upset Pick

Raiders (+270) vs. Dolphins

I’ve done this way too many times this year but Raiders YOLO games are on brand for me and I just think shocking the Dolphins and knocking them out of playoff contention is a very Raiders thing to do. Now armed with about 300 former NFL coaches on staff, the Raiders are going to get in Tua Tagovailoa’s face and shut down a still-wayward-looking Dolphins offense. -- Conor Orr

Matt Verderame Week 11 Upset Pick

Chiefs (+114) vs. Bills

Picking against Patrick Mahomes is a terrible idea. As Peter mentions above, he’s almost unbeatable as an underdog, and considering how great Kansas City has been throughout his career, all those games have come against great teams, usually on the road.

Additionally, the Chiefs typically play their best against top competition. The Chiefs are also riding a 15-game winning streak, the sixth-longest since 1950. Over that time, they’ve beaten the Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Chargers and Cincinnati Bengals twice, along with the Bills at Orchard Park.

Buffalo certainly has the talent to win behind Josh Allen, but all Kansas City does is win, and the Chiefs are the more talented team here. -- Matt Verderame

Mitch Goldich Week 11 Upset Pick

Chiefs (+114) vs. Bills

I’m making the same pick, for the same reasons already outlined above. I know the Chiefs have a laughably small point differential for a team that’s 9–0 (only plus-58), but if you have a chance to grab an undefeated Patrick Mahomes team as an underdog, you’re getting good value. -- Mitch Goldich

Gilberto Manzano Week 11 Upset Pick

Steelers (+145) vs. Ravens

I’m not going against Steelers coach Mike Tomlin, who’s been on a heater since making the bold decision to start Russell Wilson over Justin Fields. I also enjoyed the subtle jab Tomlin had for his former wide receiver Diontae Johnson after pointing out how little he’s done since joining the Ravens a few weeks ago. Wilson’s moon balls to George Pickens and Mike Williams will be a problem for one of the worst secondaries in the league.

Yeah, the Steelers’ defense will have its hands full against Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. But this unit just shut down Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders. -- Gilberto Manzano

Peter Dewey Week 11 Upset Pick

Chiefs (+114) vs. Bills

How could you even consider fading Patrick Mahomes in this spot?

After the Kansas City Chiefs survived a scare against Denver in Week 10, they’re set as underdogs against the Buffalo Bills on Sunday – the 15th time Mahomes has been a betting underdog in his career.

So far, he’s dominated in that spot. The star quarterback is 11-3 straight up and 12-1-1 against the spread when oddsmakers have him set as the betting underdog. 

While the Bills have gone 3-4 against Mahomes in his career, this Kansas City defense has dominated against the run (allowing just 3.7 yards per carry) which could make things tough on a Buffalo team that relies a lot on its ground game. -- Peter Dewey

Iain MacMillan Week 11 Upset Pick

Falcons (+120) vs. Broncos

Some mixed results in the past few weeks have distracted people from the fact that the Falcons offense ranks third in EPA per play and second in offensive success rate, dating back to Week 5.

Yes, the Broncos' defense is elite, but the Falcons have too many weapons at different positions and can find their way to score points.

The biggest concern when it comes to betting on the Falcons is their defense, which has been a subpar unit this season, but one that continues to find ways to make halftime adjustments and come out strong from the locker room. In fact, they allow the ninth fewest second-half points per game at 9.1. They have faced plenty of strong offenses this season, but the Broncos won't be one of them.

The Falcons get back on track on Sunday. -- Iain MacMillan

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!