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NFL Upset Predictions and Picks for Week 14 (Will the Chiefs Luck Run Out?)

The SI Team gives their favorite upset picks for NFL Week 14 action

SI Staff

The Chargers are underdogs to the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football.
The Chargers are underdogs to the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. / Herbert: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images, Mahomes: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

There were plenty of close calls in Week 13, but ultimately only three teams pulled off an upset. The Steelers beat the Bengals, the Eagles took down the Ravens, and the Seahawks, who closed as a one-point underdog, beat the Jets.

Despite there being only three upsets, Matt Verderame, Gilberto Manzano, and Peter Dewey nailed their Week 13 upset picks.

We move on to Week 14 with just 13 games available to try to pick out an underdog winner. The SI Team has their upset picks locked in so let's dive into them.

Season-to-Date Upset Records

All odds listed below are via DraftKings Sportsbook

Albert Breer Week 14 Upset Pick

Seahawks (+114) to Upset Cardinals

I love the direction of both these teams, but, to me, the Seahawks look like the most dangerous team in the AFC West, one capable of winning any type of game, and coming from behind, with a gamer of a quarterback and a good base of rising young talent, plus guys who’ve been in playoff races the last couple years. So I say they go into Arizona and get it done. -- Albert Breer

Conor Orr Week 14 Upset Pick

Mitch Goldich Week 14 Upset Pick

Bears (+160) to Upset 49ers

I did not expect to go in this direction during the Bears’ clock debacle on Thanksgiving, but I’ve talked myself into it. The 49ers looked like a team that knows its season is over in Sunday night’s loss to the Bills in the snow. They are also now without Christian McCaffrey. After the long flight home, they had to get ready to play a Bears team with a few extra days of rest—and yes, of course, this pick is predicated on Chicago getting the famed interim coach bump.

Chicago is also playing out the string, but based on the reports of players unloading on Matt Eberflus, I’d expect to see some fight from a group of guys who’ll be eager to prove they weren’t the problem this season. Remember, the situation on Thanksgiving only came about because they were within a field goal in the final minute against the mighty Lions. Why can’t they take down the listless Niners in Thomas Brown’s interim coaching debut? -- Mitch Goldich

Matt Verderame Week 14 Upset Pick

Rams (+170) to Upset Bills

The Bills are rolling. They’ve won eight straight and already clinched the AFC East after demolishing the San Francisco 49ers last weekend. Everything is going their way. And that’s usually when the NFL’s parity shows up. Los Angeles is a desperate team, at home, only one game back of the NFC West lead. The Rams also have the formula for being a problem for Buffalo with a good, balanced pass rush and weapons galore on offense. Expect plenty of points with a back-and-forth element. With the Detroit Lions coming up next for the Bills, this could also be a sneaky trap game. -- Matt Verderame

Gilberto Manzano Week 14 Upset Pick

Giants (+205) to Upset Saints

The New York Giants aren’t very good, but these odds make it seem as if the Giants are playing the Detroit Lions and not the New Orleans Saints this week. There’s value here with the underdog home team because the Saints just lost dynamic utility player Taysom Hill for the season. Maybe the Giants finally show pride and battle for coach Brian Daboll, who might be on the hot seat. The Saints only generated 14 points at home last week against a mediocre Rams defense. -- Gilberto Manzano

Peter Dewey Week 14 Upset Pick

Chargers (+164) to Upset Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes never loses against AFC West opponents (34-5 against them in his career), but I think he loses his sixth game on Sunday Night Football against the Los Angeles Chargers.

The Chargers have one of the better defenses in the NFL, ranking seventh in the league in EPA/Play, and they’ve allowed the fewest total points (188) in the league this season.

Kansas City won the first matchup between these teams in 2024, but Justin Herbert was playing on a balky ankle in that matchup. KC has played too many close games for my liking, and eventually, it will come back to haunt them. -- Peter Dewey

Iain MacMillan Week 14 Upset Pick

Chargers (+164) to Upset Chiefs

It's time for us to call out the Chiefs for what they are; Frauds. If you take away previous seasons and just focus on the 2024 campaign, they are one of the worst 11-1 teams in NFL history and have not played nearly as well as their record indicates. I was willing to forgive poor performance early in the season but needing last-second plays to go in their favor to beat the likes of the Panthers and Raiders is enough for me to finally lose faith in this team

Finally, the key to beating the Chiefs is stopping them on third down, which is where their offense thrives. The Chargers rank second in third down defense with opponents converting for a first down just 33.33% of the time. They're also second in opponent EPA and fifth in opponent success rate on third down, making them a perfect fit to take down the defending champs. -- Iain MacMillan

NFL Week 14 Betting Articles

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!

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