NFL Upset Predictions and Picks for Week 16 (Broncos Will Pull Off a Thursday Night Football Upset)
![The Broncos are underdogs to the Chargers in the Week 16 edition of Thursday Night Football. The Broncos are underdogs to the Chargers in the Week 16 edition of Thursday Night Football.](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/c_crop,w_2699,h_1518,x_0,y_0/c_fill,w_720,ar_16:9,f_auto,q_auto,g_auto/images/voltaxMediaLibrary/mmsport/si/01jfdb9na3z47g3b6jd4.png)
The SI Team failed to correctly pick an upset winner in Week 15, but it was largely due to only four underdogs winning on the entire slate. The Rams, Cowboys, Bills, and Buccaneers were the only teams to pull off an upset in Week 15, and none of them were larger than a three-point 'dog.
We move on to another loaded Week 16 slate and the SI Team is back with their upset picks. Let's see if we can hit a couple of winners.
Season-to-Date Upset Records
- Albert Breer, Senior NFL Reporter 5-7 (-0.61 units)
- Conor Orr, Senior Writer 5-10 (+1.13 units)
- Matt Verderame, NFL Staff Writer 7-8 (+0.95 units)
- Gilberto Manzano, NFL Staff Writer 5-10 (-2..65 units)
- Peter Dewey, Senior Editor Betting 5-10 (-2.7 units)
- Iain MacMillan, Senior Editor Betting 2-13 (-9.45 units)
- Mitch Goldich, Senior Editor 4-10 (-5.38 units)
All odds listed below are via DraftKings Sportsbook
Albert Breer Week 16 Upset Pick
Broncos (+120) to Upset Chargers
This is simply based on where these two teams are coming in—with the Broncos seemingly capable of beating you every which way, and the Chargers not looking quite the same since losing J.K. Dobbins as the engine of their run game. Go back and watch the Colts game, and you’ll see a Denver team that won even with its rookie quarterback throwing three picks, and through a slew of big plays on defense and special teams. -- Albert Breer
Conor Orr Week 16 Upset Pick
Jets (+145) to Upset Rams
I’m not suggesting the Jets are, by any means, back. But it’s only consistent with the cruelness of fate that this team showcases some kind of tantalizing run at the end of the season that whets the fans’ appetite only to provide complete and utter disappointment the next season. The Rams are coming off back-to-back emotional high-wire games and the Jets are in YOLO mode. It’s more dangerous than you think. -- Conor Orr
Matt Verderame Week 16 Upset Pick
Chiefs (+120) to Upset Texans
*Pick was made when Chiefs were underdogs while Patrick Mahomes' injury status was unknown*
Picking against the Chiefs is a fool’s game. Picking against them at home? In a standalone spot? With Patrick Mahomes dealing with a high ankle sprain? Please. Just give me the (theoretical) money now. Mahomes will come out like a wounded animal and look great because that’s who he is. Don’t think that’s true? Go watch the 2022 playoff run. This is the classic spot where everyone grabs a shovel’s worth of dirt to put on the Chiefs, and then the hand comes up. -- Matt Verderame
Gilberto Manzano Week 16 Upset Pick
Commanders (+142) to Upset Eagles
Full disclosure, I foolishly picked the Commanders in the first meeting against the Eagles. I was so wrong then about how good the Eagles truly are after beating up on some mediocre teams earlier this season. They’re definitely the real deal after defeating the Rams, Ravens, and Steelers in the past four games. So this pick is not to say the Eagles are Super Bowl pretenders. I just enjoy watching upset divisional games and maybe it takes me a while to learn my lesson. I could regret this pick again. Or maybe we get some beautiful chaos between two divisional rivals currently in playoff contention. -- Gilberto Manzano
Mitch Goldich Week 16 Upset Pick
Broncos (+120) to Upset Chargers
I’m also taking the Broncos on Thursday night. Neither of these teams looked their best last week, though the Broncos pulled away from a floundering Colts team and made the final score look prettier than it was, whereas the Chargers were dismantled by the Buccaneers.
These teams are tied (in a three-way tie with the Eagles) for the fewest points allowed all season (247). And the Chargers’ running game that looked so impressive at the start of the year hasn’t been as good the past month or so, so I’ll take Denver to win a low-scoring, potentially sloppy Thursday night special. -- Mitch Goldich
Peter Dewey Week 16 Upset Pick
Broncos (+120) to Upset Chargers
The Broncos have won four games in a row to move to 9-5 on the season, and they’re doing it by playing some impressive offense, putting up at least 29 points in each of their last four games. Denver’s defense has been elite all season, and the Broncos are 4-1 against the spread as road dogs this season. Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS as a home favorite, but it was blown out by Tampa Bay last week.
If the Broncos offense continues to play well, I think it is live to pull off an upset on a short week. -- Peter Dewey
Iain MacMillan Week 16 Upset Pick
Bears (+230) to Upset Lions
Teams will eventually reach a tipping point where their injuries have a huge impact on their performances and the Lions may have reached that tipping point. Khalil Dorsey, Carlton Davis III, Alim McNeill, and David Montgomery are the latest starters to be added to the Lions' long list of injuries. Let's remember the Bears still have some weapons offensively and a solid defense. A team this young is going to continue to fight in the final weeks of the season, despite having no hope for a playoff spot. They're live 'dogs in this one. -- Iain MacMillan
More NFL Week 16 Betting Articles
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