NFL Upset Predictions and Picks for Week 9 (Bet the Underdog on Thursday Night Football)

Iain MacMillan | Oct 31, 2024

The Jaguars take on the Eagles in Week 9 of the 2024 NFL season. / Hurts: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images, Lawrence: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

The NFL season continues and the Sports Illustrated team continues to sniff out some winning underdogs every week.

In Week 8, the Arizona Cardinals proved to be a big winner as an underdog against the Miami Dolphins. Albert Breer, Matt Verderame, and Peter Dewey all successfully picked the Cardinals as their upset pick of the week.

We're back for Week 9 with our best underdog plays, including three writers who are backing the Houston Texans to upset the New York Jets on Thursday Night Football.

Let's take a look at where everyone stands with their records of picking upset winners:

• Albert Breer, Senior NFL Reporter 3-4 (+0.01 units)
• Conor Orr, Senior Writer 2-6 (-1.3 units)
• Matt Verderame, NFL Staff Writer 5-3 (+2.89 units)
• Gilberto Manzano, NFL Staff Writer 2-6 (-3.66 units)
• Peter Dewey, Senior Editor Betting 3-5 (-1.36 units)
• Iain MacMillan, Senior Editor Betting 2-6 (-2.45 units)
• Mitch Goldich, Senior Editor 3-5 (-1.62 units)

It's time to move on to Week 9. All odd listed are via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Albert Breer Week 8 Upset Pick

Texans (+105) vs. Jets

I’m surprised that the 6-2 Texans are underdogs to the 2-6 Jets, even in a road Thursday night game. So I won’t overthink this, though there is a little bit of a “what do they know that I don’t” vibe to these odds. -- Albert Breer

Conor Orr Week 8 Upset Pick

Panthers (+250) vs. Saints

The Panthers gutting at the trade deadline can have a deleterious effect but it can also rally the remaining soldiers to play well enough to get out. The Saints are imperfect, banged up and starting to show their age a bit on defense as well. Meanwhile, I thought the Panthers strung together at least a small handful of promising drives against a good Broncos defense. -- Conor Orr

Matt Verderame Week 8 Upset Pick

Texans (+105) vs. Jets

We need to stop treating the Jets like they’re a good team. They aren’t. They’re 2–6 and on their second head coach of the season. Additionally, it’s not good for them to be at MetLife Stadium right now. Hailing from that portion of the country, know this … the Jets are going to be booed out of the building the second they come out of the tunnel.

It’s going to be a hostile, angry group of people borderline rooting for a reason to get angrier. Meanwhile, while Houston hasn’t played many complete games, it’s 6–2. Even without Stefon Diggs and Nico Collins, the Texans should handle a New York team that appears more than ready for the season to be over. -- Matt Verderame

Mitch Goldich Week 8 Upset Pick

Texans (+105) vs. Jets

Plenty of times I’ll see an underdog that I really like, even though I can easily understand why they’d be listed as an underdog. In the case of Texans-Jets, I was genuinely surprised to see New York open the week as a favorite. Sure, it’s Thursday night, which means weird things can happen and it’s Houston that has to travel on a short week. But these are two teams in totally different tiers right now. The Texans are 6–2, leading their division and thinking about going on a deeper playoff run than last year.

The Jets are 2–6 and thinking about how their whole season has fallen apart. They did not receive the fabled fired coach bump. They just aren’t a very good team, having now lost five straight after a disappointing (and essentially season-ending) defeat against the Patriots. The Texans are now without Stefon Diggs and were already missing Nico Collins, but they’re still the better team. Feed Joe Mixon and get out of MetLife Stadium with a take-care-of-business win. -- Mitch Goldich

Gilberto Manzano Week 8 Upset Pick

Jaguars (+270) vs. Eagles

m going to be as honest as Anthony Richardson here. I’m not ready to tap out, but I’m starting to feel defeated about my terrible pick’em percentage when it comes to upsets. I constantly keep picking four or five upsets every week because I’m no coward. But then I go and miss out on the Browns beating the Ravens last week. I guess I gotta go bolder now. So give me the Jaguars, who just lost Christian Kirk and may or may not have Brian Thomas Jr. this week. Are we really sure the Eagles have found their stride? They tend to lay an egg every now and then. -- Gilberto Manzano

Peter Dewey Week 8 Upset Pick

Browns (+105) vs. Chargers

It appears Deshaun Watson truly was the problem for the Cleveland Browns offense.

Cleveland upset the Baltimore Ravens behind a big game from Jameis Winston in Week 8, and now it is a home underdog against the 4-3 Los Angeles Chargers in Week 9. Sure, the Chargers blew out the New Orleans Saints in Week 8, but New Orleans’ offense is atrocious without Derek Carr.

The Browns slowed down the Ravens’ elite offense in Week 8, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they build on the momentum from last week’s win on Sunday. -- Peter Dewey

Iain MacMillan Week 8 Upset Pick

Cowboys (+120) vs. Falcons

My upset pick of the week is the Cowboys to take down the Falcons. Analytically, the Cowboys have been one of the worst teams in the NFL this season but I have to think they're a team that's going to see some positive regression. They have almost the exact same roster as last season when they went 12-5 and ranked near the top of the league in almost every metric.

When it comes to the Falcons, I have some major concerns about their defense. Their only hope to win games is to have their offense put up 30+ a game, which they've managed to do more often than not, but if their offense stumbles at all, they'll lose. They're 23rd in opponent EPA per play and 26th in opponent success rate. Arguably the most concerning aspect of their defense is their inability to stop teams on third down, ranking 30th in opponent third down conversion rate (49.04%).

The Cowboys get back on track with a win this week. -- Iain MacMillan

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