NFL Week 1 Betting Cheat Sheet (Top Spread, Total, Underdog, Teaser, and Player Prop for Opening Week)

Breaking down the best bets to place for Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season.

Jan 7, 2024; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Arizona Cardinals running back James Conner (6) celebrates a touchdown against the Seattle Seahawks during the second half at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports / joe camporeale-usa today sports

Week 1 of the NFL season is here and with this being one of the toughest slates of NFL games to bet on, I'm here to help you out.

On this week's Cheat Sheet, I'm going to break down my favorite wager for each type of bet. Want to take a favorite? I got you. Looking for an underdog bet? Look no further. More of a player prop bettor? I got one of those too.

You can find my best bet for all 16 games in this week's edition of the "Road to 272 Bets", but if you're just looking for my favorites, you've come to the right place.

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

NFL Week 1 Best Bets

• Best Spread Bet: Falcons -3 vs. Steelers
• Best Total Bet: Ravens/Chiefs UNDER 46.5
• Best Upset Pick: Titans +170 vs. Bears
• Best Teaser Bet: Colts +8.5, Titans +10.5
• Best Player Prop: James Conner OVER 56.5 Rushing Yards

Best Spread Bet: Falcons -3 vs. Steelers

The Falcons have loaded up this offseason. Not only did they sign Kirk Cousins at quarterback, but they bolstered their defense by trading for Matthew Judon and signing Justin Simmons. Now they face their former coach, Arthur Smith, who has taken over as the offensive coordinator for the Steelers.

Two of the most frustrating figures in the NFL last season was Arthur Smith with his offensive playcalling in Atlanta and Russell Wilson with his ultra-conservative quarterback play in Denver. Now the two are working together with the Steelers which may result in one of the most abysmal partnerships we've seen in some time.

I think the Falcons get off to a hot start and take care of business against Pittsburgh.

Best Total Bet: Ravens/Chiefs UNDER 46.5

My favorite total bet for Week 1 is on opening night when the back-to-back defending Super Bowl champions, the Kansas City Chiefs, begin their bid for a three-peat when they begin their season against the Baltimore Ravens in an AFC Championship rematch

People are quick to forget the Ravens and Chiefs were the two best scoring defenses in the NFL last season, ranking first and second in both opponent points per game and opponent points per play.

I expect to see a slow start from both offenses. Don't be surprised if this ends up being a low-scoring affair, despite the game featuring two electric offenses.

Best Upset Pick: Titans +170 vs. Bears

Getting off to a good start this season is a tall order for the Chicago Bears. Not only do they have a brand new offensive coordinator in Shane Waldron, but the majority of their offense played somewhere else last season. Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze were in college while Keenan Allen was in Los Angeles and D'Andre Swift was in Philadelphia.

An effective offense is one that's filled with players who understand the scheme inside and out while also knowing how to play with each other. It's going to take time for this Bears offense to gel at that level.

Meanwhile, the Titans quietly had one of the best offseasons in the NFL. They might be more feisty than other people think. I'll take them to upset the Bears in the opening week.

Best Teaser Bet: Colts +8.5, Titans +10.5

If you don't want to bet on the Titans to upset the Bears in the first week, how about a 6-point teaser along with the Colts?

The main thing you should try to achieve with a six-point teaser is to cross key numbers. If we take the Colts from +2.5 to +8.5 against the Houston Texans, we get to cross key numbers of both three and seven. By taking the Titans from +4.5 to +10.5 against the Bears, we cross the key number of seven and the secondary key number of 10.

The Texans and Bears are two teams who have received a ton of hype this offseason but who may start their 2024 campaign a bit slow out of the gate.

Best Player Prop: James Conner OVER 56.5 Rushing Yards

Despite the Buffalo Bills winning the AFC East last season, they had one glaring weakness; their ability to stop the run. They ranked 29th in the NFL last season in opponent yards per play, allowing 4.7 yards per snap.

I don't think the Bills have done enough this offseason to fix that hole and now they take on the Cardinals in Week 1, who have an underrated rushing offense. James Conners totaled 1,040 yards on the ground in just 13 games last season, averaging 80.0 yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry. We only need him to rack up 57 yards in the opening week this season for this bet to cash.

It's my favorite player prop of the week.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!